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SAFER Seismic EArly Warning For EuRope Seismic Early Warning Naples Bucharest Athens Istanbul Cairo Iceland Switzerland Greece The starting point The SAFER.

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Presentation on theme: "SAFER Seismic EArly Warning For EuRope Seismic Early Warning Naples Bucharest Athens Istanbul Cairo Iceland Switzerland Greece The starting point The SAFER."— Presentation transcript:

1 SAFER Seismic EArly Warning For EuRope Seismic Early Warning Naples Bucharest Athens Istanbul Cairo Iceland Switzerland Greece The starting point The SAFER plan Achievements What next? Future tasks The agenda

2 Earthquake Early Warning Seconds before the earthquake hits!

3 Process Understanding Scientists Hazard Assessment Scientists Risk Assessment Scientists, Engineers Safe Building Engineers Various Groups Knowledge Transfer Rapid Earthquake Information Scientists, Engineers Early Warning Decision Makers, Local Author. Rapid Impact Assessment Scientists, Engineers The Disaster Reduction Chain Early warning is an important component!

4 SAFER Where did we start? Seismic Early Warning Bucharest Istanbul In seismic early warning Europe was far behind the US, Japan, Taiwan and Mexico! Only Istanbul and Bucharest had started to develop EW-capabilities for their cities! In particular, the shake map technology had not been implemented in Europe!

5 What Did We Have in Mind? Naples Bucharest Athens Istanbul Cairo Iceland Switzerland Greece Develop seismic early warning methods and capabilities for Europe Implement and test new methods in European test areas and -cities

6 Seismic EW - Probabilistic and Evolutionary Approach to Real-Time Distance, Magnitude and PGA (AMRA/SAFER) a. b. c. d. e. a., b., c.: Real-Time distributions of source-to-site distance, magnitude, and PGA (at site); d. Lead-time map (when 4 stations have triggered) and real-time risk reduction actions; e. Decisional rule based on PGA- and false alarm probabilities. However: The problem of large magnitudes (from the first seconds)! Achievements: A New Concept for Regional Early Warning

7 CNRS/SAFER- Achievements: Rapid Source Parameters Within Minutes TIME Earthquake origin time Earthquake detection and localisation "Early P-wave magnitude" A few seconds Early warning Global CMT solutions: > 1 hour Moment magnitude Mw 2 minutes Rapid source parameters Step 1 Focal mechanism 15 minutes Step 2 40 minutes Slip distribution Step 3 Earthquake detection and localisation Early P-wave magnitude

8 Achievements (GFZ): Rapid determination of the energy magnitude Me The case of the great Sumatra earthquake Me determination using (S-P) time windows for the 26 December, 2004 Sumatra earthquake. Already about 15 min after OT our procedure could have provided a stable Me determination. More details can be found in Di Giacomo et al. (GRL 2008). D. Di Giacomo, H. Grosser, S. Parolai, P. Bormann, and R. Wang

9 GEM Decentralized versus centralized systems Client station A new technology for seismic early warning! Basic Features self-organizing! decentralized! low-cost! dense! Achievements (GFZ/HU): People Centered Early Warning System Self Organizing Mesh Networks for Early Warning and Rapid Response People centered versus one voice

10 Actual (Magnitude 6.3) after D. Wald, USGS 6/4/09 7/4/09 8/4/09 9/4/09 10/4/09 11/4/09 BBC dpa Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment Time-Line of Information Availability on Death Toll Due Time-Line of Information Availability on Death Toll Due to the L`Aquila M=6.2 event on April 6th 2009 to the L`Aquila M=6.2 event on April 6th 2009 First 12 hours: Death Toll < 50! More rapid and more precise impact assessment is needed! Achievements (WAPMERR/NORSAR):

11 Achievements (test sites): Ground Shaking Intensity Can be Overlayed on Infrastructure! Rapid Impact Assessment Shake-Maps within a few minutes! (The Northridge Scenario) Ground Shaking Intensity The shake-map-technology has now been implemented through SAFER in many places in Europe! and real-time damage assessment is feasible, but needs more testing (GEM?)

12 New Application of Time-Dependent Hazard Assessment: Near Real-Time Aftershock Forecasting Combining Non-Stationary Statistics with Physics of Earthquakes Achievements (GFZ/ETH):

13 Achievements (NGI): Early Warning for Earthquake Induced Landslides

14 Achievements: Visibility American Geophysical Union (AGU), Dec 2007 European Seismological Comm. (ESC), Sept 2008 European Geosciences Union (EGU), April 2008 European Geosciences Union (EGU), April nd International Workshop on Earthquake Early Warning, Kyoto, Japan, April 2009 Major Contributions to International Meetings Dissemination Public Relation

15 Achievements: Publications International Journals: More than 30 Book on Early Warning (Springer) Presentations: More than 100 Second Book (Springer) in Preparation Special Volume in Geophys. Research Letters Special Issue of Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering (SDEE, in Preparation))

16 Further Achievements Contracting many young scientists Contributing to the networking between large European projects like NERIES, TRANSFER,….. Forming a European Science Community in the field of Seismic Early Warning

17 FINAL DEADLINES SAFER FINAL MEETINGJUNE 3th-5th END OF THE PROJECTJUNE 14th DEADLINE FOR SUBMITING THE FINAL ACTIVITY REPORT AND FINANCIAL REPORT (INCLUDING AUDIT CERTIFICATES) JULY 30th PROPOSED SCHEDULE REPORTS FROM WP LEADERS AND TEST SITE LEADERS JUNE 15th FINANCIAL REPORTS AND AUDIT CERTIFICATESJULY 15th SUBMISSION OF THE FINAL REPORTJULY 30th SAFER Final Deadlines and Proposed Schedule

18 PartnerD TotalDeliveredMissingPercentage GFZ ,56% AMRA ,92% UNIKARL*770100,00% KOERI41325,00% UBER63350,00% INGV65183,33% NOA74357,14% NKUA94544,44% CNRS**1010,00% EMSC220100,00% ETHZ65183,33% NIEP660100,00% NORSAR76185,71% NGI42250,00% IMOR104640,00% WAPMER220100,00% SELEX32166,67% NRIAG2020,00% KNMI000 CEDIM220100,00% Berkeley1010,00% TOTAL ,66% * del 2.17 and del.4.18 are identical ** CNRS has delivered its contribution to del.2,5 but the deliverable has not been completed yet SAFER Deliverables Report Agenda Vision


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