Presentation on theme: "SAFER Seismic EArly Warning For EuRope Seismic Early Warning"— Presentation transcript:
1 SAFER Seismic EArly Warning For EuRope Seismic Early Warning NaplesBucharestAthensIstanbulCairoIcelandSwitzerlandGreeceThe starting pointThe SAFER planAchievementsFuture tasksWhat next?The agenda
2 Seconds before the earthquake hits! Early WarningAussprache: shear shear = thank youSeconds before the earthquake hits!
3 The Disaster Reduction Chain Early warning is an important component! ProcessUnderstandingScientistsHazardAssessmentScientistsRiskAssessmentScientists,EngineersSafeBuildingEngineersEarlyWarningDecisionMakers,Local Author.VariousGroupsKnowledgeTransferRapidEarthquakeInformationScientists,EngineersRapidImpactAssessmentScientists,Engineers
4 SAFER Where did we start? Seismic Early Warning In seismic early warningEurope was far behindthe US, Japan, Taiwanand Mexico!BucharestIstanbulOnly Istanbul and Bucharesthad started to developEW-capabilities for their cities!In particular,the shake map technologyhad not been implementedin Europe!
5 What Did We Have in Mind?Develop seismic early warning methods and capabilities for EuropeImplement and test new methods in European test areas and -citiesNaplesBucharestAthensIstanbulCairoIcelandSwitzerlandGreece
6 Regional Early Warning Seismic EW - Probabilistic and Evolutionary Approach to Real-Time Distance, Magnitude and PGA (AMRA/SAFER)a.d.b.However:The problem oflarge magnitudes(from the first seconds)!Achievements:A New ConceptforRegional Early Warningc.e.a., b., c.: Real-Time distributions of source-to-site distance, magnitude, and PGA(at site); d. Lead-time map (when 4 stations have triggered) and real-time risk reduction actions; e. Decisional rule based on PGA- and false alarm probabilities.
7 CNRS/SAFER- Achievements: Rapid Source Parameters Within MinutesEarthquakeorigin timeEarthquake detection and localisation"Early P-wave magnitude"A few secondsEarly warningEarthquake detection and localisation„Early P-wave magnitude“Moment magnitude Mw2 minutesRapid sourceparametersStep 1Focal mechanism15 minutesStep 240 minutesSlip distributionStep 3Global CMT solutions: > 1 hourTIME
8 More details can be found in Di Giacomo et al. (GRL 2008). Achievements (GFZ): Rapid determination of the energy magnitude Me The case of the great Sumatra earthquakeThe red star represent the 26 December, 2004 Sumatra earthquake location, the black triangles the broadband stations used to compute Me(GFZ), and the blue circles represent the S-wave arrival times. On the right the number of stations NS used to compute Me(GFZ) at different times after OT is also shown.Me determination using (S-P) time windows for the 26 December, 2004 Sumatra earthquake. Already about 15 min after OT our procedure could have provided a stable Me determination.More details can be found in Di Giacomo et al. (GRL 2008).D. Di Giacomo, H. Grosser, S. Parolai, P. Bormann, and R. Wang
9 Achievements (GFZ/HU): People Centered Early Warning System Self Organizing Mesh Networks for Early Warning and Rapid Response“Decentralized” versus “centralized” systems“People centered“versus „one voice“A new technologyfor seismicearly warning!Basic Featuresself-organizing!decentralized!low-cost!dense!Client station
10 Achievements (WAPMERR/NORSAR): More rapid and more precise Actual(Magnitude 6.3)after D. Wald, USGS6/4/ /4/ /4/ /4/ /4/ /4/09BBCdpa30025020015010050Rapid Damage and Loss AssessmentTime-Line of Information Availability on Death Toll Dueto the L`Aquila M=6.2 event on April 6th 2009More rapid and more preciseimpact assessmentis needed!First 12 hours:Death Toll < 50!
11 Achievements (test sites): Ground Shaking Intensity RapidImpactAssessmentAchievements (test sites):Ground Shaking IntensityCan be Overlayedon Infrastructure!The shake-map-technologyhas now been implementedthrough SAFERin many places in Europe!andreal-time damage assessmentis feasible,but needs more testing (GEM?)Ground Shaking IntensityShake-Mapswithina fewminutes!(The NorthridgeScenario)
12 Near Real-Time Aftershock Forecasting CombiningNon-Stationary StatisticswithPhysics of EarthquakesAchievements (GFZ/ETH):New Application ofTime-Dependent Hazard Assessment:Near Real-TimeAftershock Forecasting12
13 Achievements (NGI): Early Warning for Earthquake Induced Landslides 13
14 Major Contributions to International Meetings Achievements:VisibilityDisseminationPublic RelationMajor Contributions to International MeetingsAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU), Dec 2007European Geosciences Union (EGU), April 2008European Seismological Comm. (ESC), Sept 2008European Geosciences Union (EGU), April 20092nd International Workshop on EarthquakeEarly Warning, Kyoto, Japan, April 2009
15 Achievements: Publications International Journals: More than 30 Presentations: More than 100Book on Early Warning (Springer)Second Book (Springer) in PreparationSpecial Volume in Geophys. Research LettersSpecial Issue of Soil Dynamics and EarthquakeEngineering (SDEE, in Preparation))
16 Further Achievements Contracting many young scientists Forming a European Science Communityin the field of Seismic Early WarningContributing to the networking between largeEuropean projects like NERIES, TRANSFER,…..
17 SAFER Final Deadlines and Proposed Schedule FINAL DEADLINES SAFER FINAL MEETINGJUNE 3th-5thEND OF THE PROJECTJUNE 14thDEADLINE FOR SUBMITING THE FINAL ACTIVITY REPORT AND FINANCIAL REPORT (INCLUDING AUDIT CERTIFICATES)JULY 30thPROPOSED SCHEDULEREPORTS FROM WP LEADERS AND TEST SITE LEADERSJUNE 15thFINANCIAL REPORTS AND AUDIT CERTIFICATESJULY 15thSUBMISSION OF THE FINAL REPORT
18 SAFER Deliverables Report Agenda Vision Partner D Total Delivered MissingPercentageGFZ1810855,56%AMRA13376,92%UNIKARL*7100,00%KOERI4125,00%UBER650,00%INGV583,33%NOA57,14%NKUA944,44%CNRS**0,00%EMSC2ETHZNIEPNORSAR85,71%NGIIMOR40,00%WAPMERSELEX66,67%NRIAGKNMICEDIMBerkeleyTOTAL116754164,66%SAFERDeliverablesReportAgendaVision* del 2.17 and del.4.18 are identical** CNRS has delivered its contribution to del.2,5 but the deliverable has not been completed yet