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PLEXOS® Integrated Energy Model: Modelling the Impact of LNG Demand on the East Coast Gas Market Olumide Adisa (Ph.D) Gas Market Modeller March 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "PLEXOS® Integrated Energy Model: Modelling the Impact of LNG Demand on the East Coast Gas Market Olumide Adisa (Ph.D) Gas Market Modeller March 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 PLEXOS® Integrated Energy Model: Modelling the Impact of LNG Demand on the East Coast Gas Market Olumide Adisa (Ph.D) Gas Market Modeller March 2014

2 Energy Exemplar® Commercial since 1999 Focused on PLEXOS® for Energy Systems Software Global client base served from four locations: – Adelaide, Australia – London, United Kingdom – Johannesburg, South Africa – Sacramento, CA, USA West Coast – Hartford, CT, USA East Coast 20% staff with Ph.D. level qualifications spanning Operations Research, Electrical Engineering, Economics, Mathematics and Statistics Client base growing 30% p.a. 2

3 3 Client Map Worldwide installations of PLEXOS exceed 1060 at more than 175 sites worldwide in 37 countries. Users: Power Generation Companies, Transmission System Operators (TSOs), Independent System Operators (ISOs), Electricity and Gas Market Operators, Energy Commission and Regulators, Price Forecasting Agencies, Power Plant Manufacturers, Consultants, Analysts, Academics & Research Institutions

4 Analysis tools in PLEXOS® What makes PLEXOS® engine so powerful? Power market design: Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, UK, CAISO, MISO, Singapore, Chile Cutting edge technology:.Net Framework 4.0 and XML Built-in functions and solving methods. Optimization: Xpress, CPLEX, Gurobi, Mosek Simulator Features: Long, medium and short term Stochastic and deterministic optimization Analysis Capabilities: Cost-based analysis Simulate competitive behaviour Co-optimization of resources and services Profit Maximization Integrated Transmission and Hydro 4

5 Features: Overview Generation Portfolio Optimization Portfolio Optimization Customizations Timeframes Gas Modelling DSM Financials Stochastic Renewables Visualization Transmission Markets

6 Transmission Radial and meshed networks Regional pricing Nodal pricing Large-scale networks AC & DC Interface limits Losses (regional & zonal) LMP decomposition Wheeling charges Pricing methods Contingencies and SC-OPF SCUC (Contingency) ISO level outputs Transformers Phase shifters Interfaces Generation Optimal capacity expansion Unit commitment Heat rate model Maintenance optimization Monte Carlo simulation Fuel constraints Emission constraints Technical limits Auxiliary use Ancillary services CCGT & CHP SCUC (Contingency) Renewables All types Energy constraints Must-run limits External profiles Cascading Hydro Pumped Storage Uncertainty Timeframes 1-minute to 10’s of years Constraint decomposition LDC model Chronological model Time Slices Stochastic Variable inputs Correlations Stochastic optimization Monte Carlo Box-Jenkins methods Brownian with mean reversion Financials Financial contracts CfD & FTR Generator bid formation Gaming models Pricing and Uplift Escalators Customizations Generic constraints Open PLEXOS Automation Data retrieval 6 Markets & Portfolio Optimisation Energy Ancillary Services Heat Fuel Capacity Demand Bidding & Participation Energy Ancillary Services Interruptible loads Integrated Gas Modelling Basins Fields Storage Pipeline External gas markets Optimal capacity expansion Transmission constraints Peak shaving services Linepack optimization Demand forecasting Production constraints Nodal processing Demand bids and quantity Production cost tranches Gas contracts Pipeline de-rating Visualisation Geospatial Pre-set results graphs Google Earth PLEXOS Features Gas Model Planned Features LNG shipment optimization modelling Energy Exemplar

7 7 PLEXOS Scope

8 PLEXOS Simulator Structure Long Term Optimal Investment Optimal Maintenance Scheduling Short Term Chronological Medium Term Decomposition 10 + year studies Build & Retire Production & Transmission Captures Production Contracts

9 PLEXOS Simulator Structure Long Term Optimal Investment Optimal Maintenance Scheduling Short Term Chronological Medium Term Decomposition Schedules maintenance Models forced outages Computes LOLP, optimal reserve levels etc

10 PLEXOS Simulator Structure Long Term Optimal Investment Optimal Maintenance Scheduling Short Term Chronological Medium Term Decomposition Breaks down constraints Optimises constraints in storages, fields etc Fast results for MT studies

11 PLEXOS Simulator Structure Long Term Optimal Investment Optimal Maintenance Scheduling Short Term Chronological Medium Term Decomposition Chronological optimisation in each ST period Emulates market clearing engines Captures competitive behaviour eg Nash-Cournot

12 MODELLING THE IMPACT OF LNG DEMAND ON THE EAST COAST GAS MARKET CASE STUDY: NSW PLEXOS® Integrated Energy Model

13 Key PLEXOS® Gas Module Interface Classes Energy Exemplar 13

14 Energy Exemplar 14 SA QLD NSW VIC TAS SEA gas Pipeline MSP Pipeline Eastern gas pipeline Tasmanian gas pipeline QSN Link Maximization of social welfare by taking a least-cost modelling approach. Perfectly competitive market – no market power of participants LNG netback price of $13/GJ in QLD LNG demand - 6 trains totalling 1518PJ/Year by 2023 New build variables for CSG development in NSW Production and transmission constraints from AEMO GSOO 2013 Published AEMO natural gas load used Study topology and assumptions

15 Energy Exemplar 15 Results

16 Energy Exemplar 16 Results

17 Energy Exemplar 17 Conclusion – Where/how does optimization fit in our market? Demand Side Management Peak Demand Shaving Shortage Curtailment Maintenance Planning Optimal Out-of- Service Units Management Resource Management for gas prices Resource Allocation and Planning Contract Portfolio and Swing Optimization LT Modelling MT Modelling ST ModellingMaintenance Optimal investment planning Cost savings on portfolio in the long term

18 Energy Exemplar


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