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The contents of this unclassified report in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of State, or the United.

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Presentation on theme: "The contents of this unclassified report in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of State, or the United."— Presentation transcript:

1 The contents of this unclassified report in no way represent the policies, views, or attitudes of the United States Department of State, or the United States Government, except as otherwise noted (e.g., travel advisories, public statements). The presentation was compiled from various open sources and unclassified embassy reporting. Please note that all OSAC products are for internal U.S. private sector security purposes only. Publishing or otherwise distributing OSAC-derived information in a manner inconsistent with this policy may result in the discontinuation of OSAC support. ISIL Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) July 2014

2 ISIL Territory Damascus Erbil Kirkuk Basra March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Raqqah Aleppo Baghdad Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

3 ISIL Territory Damascus Erbil Raqqah Sarrin Kirkuk Basra Aleppo Baghdad March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

4 ISIL Territory Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Erbil Kirkuk Basra Aleppo Tell Rifaat Baghdad March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

5 ISIL Territory Aleppo Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Tell Rifaat Jarabulus Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra Tell Abyad Al-Thawrah Manbij Fallujah Ramadi March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

6 ISIL Territory Aleppo Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Tell Rifaat Jarabulus Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra Tell Abyad Al-Thawrah Manbij Fallujah Ramadi Deir al-zor March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

7 ISIL Territory Aleppo Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Tell Rifaat Jarabulus Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra Tell Abyad Al-Thawrah Manbij Fallujah Ramadi Deir al-zor Mosul March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

8 ISIL Territory Aleppo Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Tell Rifaat Jarabulus Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra Tell Abyad Al-Thawrah Manbij Fallujah Ramadi Deir al-zor Mosul Al-Shirqat Baiji Al-Adhaim Tikrit March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

9 ISIL Territory Aleppo Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Tell Rifaat Jarabulus Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra Tell Abyad Al-Thawrah Manbij Fallujah Ramadi Deir al-zor Mosul Al-Shirqat Baiji Tikrit Al-Adhaim Al-Dour Samarra March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

10 ISIL Territory Aleppo Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Tell Rifaat Jarabulus Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra Tell Abyad Al-Thawrah Manbij Fallujah Ramadi Deir al-zor Mosul Al-Shirqat Baiji Tikrit Al-Adhaim Al-Dour Samarra Jalulah March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

11 ISIL Territory Aleppo Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Tell Rifaat Jarabulus Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra Tell Abyad Al-Thawrah Manbij Fallujah Ramadi Deir al-zor Mosul Al-Shirqat Baiji Tikrit Al-Adhaim Al-Dour Samarra Jalulah March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

12 ISIL Territory Aleppo Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Tell Rifaat Jarabulus Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra Tell Abyad Al-Thawrah Manbij Fallujah Ramadi Deir al-zor Mosul Al-Shirqat Baiji Tikrit Al-Adhaim Al-Dour Samarra Jalulah Qaim Rawah Anah March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

13 ISIL Territory Aleppo Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Tell Rifaat Jarabulus Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra Tell Abyad Al-Thawrah Manbij Fallujah Ramadi Deir al-zor Mosul Al-Shirqat Baiji Tikrit Al-Adhaim Al-Dour Samarra Jalulah Qaim Rawah Anah Tarbil Al-Waleed Tal Afar March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

14 ISIL Territory Aleppo Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Tell Rifaat Jarabulus Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra Tell Abyad Al-Thawrah Manbij Fallujah Ramadi Deir al-zor Mosul Al-Shirqat Baiji Tikrit Al-Adhaim Al-Dour Samarra Jalulah Qaim Rawah Anah Tarbil Al-Waleed Tal Afar Albu Kamal March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

15 ISIL Territory Aleppo Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Tell Rifaat Jarabulus Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra Tell Abyad Al-Thawrah Manbij Fallujah Ramadi Deir al-zor Mosul Al-Shirqat Baiji Tikrit Al-Adhaim Al-Dour Samarra Jalulah Qaim Rawah Anah Tarbil Al-Waleed Tal Afar Albu Kamal March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014 Shaar Oil Field Ethno-Religious Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds KEY Capital City Captured by ISIL Retaken from ISIL Contested

16 ISIL’s Advance Halted Aleppo Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Tell Rifaat Jarabulus Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra Tell Abyad Al-Thawrah Manbij Fallujah Ramadi Deir al-zor Mosul Al-Shirqat Baiji Tikrit Al-Adhaim Al-Dour Samarra Jalulah Qaim Rawah Anah Tarbil Al-Waleed Tal Afar Albu Kamal KEY Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds ISIL quickly captured Sunni towns in Iraq, but has been unable to move into Shi’a dominated or mixed territory, such as Baghdad. Shaar Oil Field March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014 June 13-18, 2014 June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014July 18, 2014

17 Religious Composition 17 Aleppo Damascus March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014June 13-18, 2014June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014Religious Composition KEY Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra View territory controlled by ISIL

18 Religious Composition 18 Aleppo Damascus Raqqah Sarrin Al-Bab Tell Rifaat Jarabulus Erbil Kirkuk Baghdad Basra Tell Abyad Al-Thawrah Manbij Fallujah Ramadi Deir al-zor Mosul Al-Shirqat Baiji Tikrit Al-Adhaim Al-Dour Samarra Jalulah Qaim Rawah Anah Tarbil Al-Waleed Tal Afar Albu Kamal March 2013September 2013November 2013January 2014May 2014June 10, 2014June 11, 2014June 12, 2014June 13, 2014June 13-18, 2014June 21, 2014June 23, 2014June 30, 2014Religious Composition KEY Sunni Shia Sunni and Shia Kurds

19 Factors Aiding ISIL’s Rise ISIL’s capability has been increasing over the past several years due primarily to two reasons: Marginalization of Iraq’s Sunni Population. ISIL capitalized off growing Sunni resentment against the Shi’a-led government saw dozens of anti- government protests in Anbar province in response to a government crackdown on Sunni political leadership. Security Vacuum in Syria. The ongoing civil war in Syria has provided a permissive environment for numerous extremist groups operating in the country. ISIL has used its territory in Syria to recruit, fund, and plot attacks in Iraq, contributing to growing violence in Iraq. 19

20 Rising Civilian Casualties Rates As ISIL has increased its capability – by manipulating internal sectarian tensions and capitalizing off Syria’s security vacuum – violence in Iraq has been on the rise in In June 2014, 2,417 Iraqis were killed in violence, including 1,531 civilians; the highest death toll recorded in Iraq since 2007.

21 Factors Permitting ISIL’s June Advance 21 ISF Flees Advancing ISIL. Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) members in Mosul, Tikrit, Kirkuk, and other towns reportedly fled as ISIL members swept in, in some cases abandoning their weapons and uniforms. ISF’s inability to repel militant incursion limited ISIL’s need to engage in combat in many cases, and the group quickly set up command and control.

22 Factors Permitting ISIL’s June Advance 22 Sunni Assistance. ISIL’s campaign through northwest and central Iraq towards Baghdad has not come without assistance. ISIL is relying on Sunni political and militant groups, such as Baathist political leaders, tribal leaders, and the Naqshbandi Army. This network has allowed ISIL to advance into new territory as their allies control towns under ISIL’s name.

23 Activation of Shi’a Militias Due to ISF’s failure to halt ISIL, the Iraqi government called for volunteers and Shi’a militias to support Iraqi national security efforts. Shi’a militias, which have largely been on the sidelines in recent years, are expected to enforce control of Shi’a territory and have the resources and combat experience to pose a significant challenge to Sunni militants. However, the open involvement of Shi’a militias has the potential to trigger critical levels of sectarian violence across the country. Concern over the potential sectarian fallout has been highest for Baghdad, where sectarian violence and cleansing of neighborhoods soared during the Iraq war.

24 Baghdad Sectarian Breakdown This map from BBC highlights the impact of sectarian violence on Baghdad neighborhoods from , during the height of conflict.

25 Embassy Status On June 15, the U.S. Department of State released an updated Travel Warning addressing the current instability in Iraq, and announcing that some additional security personnel would be added to the staff at U.S. Embassy Baghdad, and other staff would be temporarily relocated – both to the U.S. Consulates in Basrah and Erbil and to the Iraq Support Unit in Amman, Jordan. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad remains open and a substantial majority of the U.S. presence remains in place.

26 Private Sector Response Many OSAC Constituents operating in central and northwest Iraq reported ISIL’s advance towards Baghdad crossed their tripwires requiring relocation – either internally or externally. Within Baghdad, the U.S. Private Sector expressed concerns about the potential increase in terrorism and sectarian violence. Furthermore, the potential risks to Baghdad International Airport (BIAP), and ramifications for evacuation options remains a top concern. Most OSAC Constituents operating in Kurdistan and southern Iraq reported that they were monitoring the situation but not altering their operations due to the perception that ISIL would not be able to have a significant impact in these areas. 26

27 Drivers for Continued Violence The stoking of sectarian tensions, either by divisive rhetoric from Iraqi political or religious leaders, or by heavy handed tactics by ISIL, ISF, or Shi’a militias, could significantly escalate terrorism and sectarian violence. Meanwhile, attacks on key holy sites – such as Samarra’s al-Askari Shrine – could trigger a widespread sectarian conflict. Additional territorial gains by ISIL or increased capability to attack Shi’a dominated areas of Iraq, or heavily mixed areas, such as Baghdad, could escalate the response by the ISF and Shi’a militias, triggering greater conflict in the long-term. Lack of political cohesion, which has already become a staple of the conflict, has the potential to further complicate efforts against ISIL. Iraq’s parliament has until the end of July to elect a president and an additional 15 days for the largest alliance to name a prime minister. Current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who has been widely criticized for inflaming sectarian tensions, has been publicly adamant in seeking a third term in office. Furthermore, increased conflict between the central Iraqi government and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), particularly over territorial and budget disputes, could permit a more pervasive environment for ISIL.

28 For Additional Information Previous OSAC Reporting on Iraq: Update on ISIL and U.S. Embassy Baghdad Status ISIL Seizes Control of Mosul Syrian Scenarios: Spillover and Stasis Syrian Conflict Escalation: Regional Implications Iraq Violence Escalates Al-Qa’ida in Iraq Resurgence Travel Warning: Iraq (June 16, 2014)Travel Warning: Iraq For Questions on this presentation or the situation in Iraq, please contact OSAC’s Analyst on the Middle East and North Africa.OSAC’s Analyst on the Middle East and North Africa


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