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Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/20151 Informational Briefing for the NOAA Executive Panel April 13, 2004 Responding to America’s Emerging Water.

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Presentation on theme: "Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/20151 Informational Briefing for the NOAA Executive Panel April 13, 2004 Responding to America’s Emerging Water."— Presentation transcript:

1 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/20151 Informational Briefing for the NOAA Executive Panel April 13, 2004 Responding to America’s Emerging Water Crisis: Vision for a NOAA Water Resources Program

2 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/20152 Water Resources Challenges Water Prediction Capabilities, Gaps, and Impacts on Hydropower NOAA’s Guidance for FY 2006 America’s Water Resources NOAA’s Many Partners National Research Council (NRC) Priorities NOAA’s Contributions to NRC Priorities NOAA’s Challenges NOAA’s Water Resources Themes and Outcomes Current/Potential Collaborators within NOAA Socio-Economic Needs and Benefits Water Resources Data Assimilation Fresh Water Forecasting Estuary-Fresh Water Ecosystem Predictions Hydrology Program Follow-up Activities Bottom Line Outline

3 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/20153 A sustainable and secure society is one that meets its water needs without destroying the ecosystems upon which it depends or the prospects of generations yet to come.* Over the past half-century, the scale and pace of human influences on fresh water systems has accelerated rapidly, along with population and consumption growth.* Worldwide water demands roughly tripled, and, fresh water wetlands have diminished in area by about half.* At least 20% of Earth’s 10,000 freshwater fish species are now at risk of extinction or are already extinct.* *Worldwatch Institute (March 2004) Water Resources Challenges Water 2025 - US Department of Interior (potential water conflict areas; salinity and international boundary issues)

4 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/20154 Water Prediction Capabilities, Gaps, Impacts Flood Mitigation (~$25M/yr**) River Forecasting System Power Optimization (~$50 M/yr**) Coupled Water and Weather Models Ecologically Sound Water Planning (~$100M/yr**) Coupled Water, Climate, and Ecosystem Models **Estimated Potential Economic Benefits

5 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/20155 Service to America: “Sound decision making by others depends on NOAA’s ability to deliver information needed for objective analysis of alternatives” Critical Need for Water Resources Information: “Water managers expect fresh water shortages in the near future, and coastal water resources are continually stressed. Fresh water and estuary transition-zone information, beyond the current state of the art, is required to meet these challenges. We should integrate NOAA’s collaborative research, data, and operations to generate products and services to help water resource managers.” NOAA’s Guidance for FY 2006

6 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/20156 America’s Water Resources Rivers & Streams Reservoirs & Lakes The Great Lakes Wetlands Estuaries Coasts Soil Conditions “Any of the entire range of the Earth’s natural waters that are of potential use to humans”

7 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/20157 U.S. Geological Survey – collects surface and ground water data to document past and current conditions, and produces water supply assessments U.S. Army Corps of Engineers – designs, builds, and operates dams and levees to support river commerce, flood control, and environmental protection U.S. Bureau of Reclamation – manages water storage and irrigation projects to protect and enhance the Nation’s water supply USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service – Implements land management practices to reduce sediments and nutrients entering the waterways, conducts snow surveys, and provides water supply forecasts for the West Environmental Protection Agency – monitors and regulates the Nation’s water quality Plus, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Tennessee Valley Authority, Bonneville Power Administration, universities, and state, regional, tribal, and local cooperators NOAA’s Many Partners

8 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/20158 Forty-three water management challenges of current or potential value to our Nation and the Environment Water Availability (18) – supply, quality, pollution control, observations, predictions, and long-terms trends Water Use (9) – consumptive and agricultural use, aquatic ecosystem impacts, and species and ecosystem restoration Water Institutions and Information Markets (16) – water management laws, regulation, demands, pricing structures, risk communication, and understanding decision processes National Research Council Priorities

9 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/20159 Water Availability –Prediction of floods, droughts, and lake levels –Collection and distribution of real time hydrologic data –Monitoring drought –Climatic studies of trends in precipitation and watershed conditions –Development of regional hydrologic models for a range of time scales –Protection of waterways from hazardous material spills Water Use –Knowledge of water requirements and behavior of aquatic ecosystems –Restoration of damaged aquatic ecosystems –Enhancement and restoration of species diversity in aquatic ecosystems –Protection of coastal and marine habitats and living marine resources Water Institutions and Information Markets –Information for water-related risk communication and decision processes –Support for reservoir management, forest preservation, and water allocation But… contributions are fragmented across Line Offices and communication is inadequate NOAA’s Current Contributions

10 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/201510 Identify, understand, and address socio-economic needs and benefits related to the Nation’s water resource challenges Interact with users of water resources information Advance operational streamflow forecasting by replacing empirical, statistically tuned models with the dynamic, physically based models necessary to produce a full suite of water resources information Enhance fresh and salt water forecast models to take advantage of improved weather and climate predictions, more comprehensive precipitation, evaporation, solar insolation data, and GIS technology Interface NOAA’s watershed and estuary water observations, forecasts, and services Align NOAA-wide operational capabilities to address user needs in a “unified and consistent” fashion NOAA’s Challenges

11 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/201511 Socio-Economic Needs and Benefits –Multidisciplinary social science studies with demonstrations of product and service benefits Water Resource Data Assimilation –Doppler radar dual polarization and satellite quantitative precipitation, snow, satellite vegetation, soil moisture, evaporation, tides, estuary water quality Fresh Water Forecasting –High spatial resolution water resources information grids –Daily to seasonal probabilistic forecasts –Improved forecast information for extreme events (floods and droughts) Estuary-Fresh Water Ecosystem Predictions –Fresh water forecast information directly incorporated into assessments of ecosystem stress –Routine predictions of coastal water conditions NOAA’s Water Resources Themes and Objectives

12 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/201512 Current/Potential Collaborators within NOAA Note: Hydrology Program primary focus areas are highlighted in blue

13 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/201513 Expected Outcomes –Prudent allocation of assets and funding –Better management of living marine resources affected by fresh water availability –Ecosystem stewardship in response to variations in water quantity and quality –Timely response to emerging water resources challenges Strategy –Conduct extramural, multidisciplinary research involving social scientists to improve the design of water resources information and services –Identify water resources information needs by assessing sensitive economic sectors –Create and maintain a central inventory of users (industries, organizations, private sector intermediaries) and benefits for water resources information –Identify information needs for water management, allocation, and conservation decision models –Quantify impacts on communities and local economies Socio-Economic Needs and Benefits

14 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/201514 Expected Outcomes –Requirements for augmented observation programs –High spatial and temporal resolution grids with uncertainty estimates –Nationally consistent estimates of precipitation, snowpack, evaporation, and soil moisture –Additional variables (e.g., vegetation, soil temperature, and solar insolation) –Estuary tide and current conditions and water quality estimates (salinity and temperature) Strategy –Conduct research and development to deploy advanced systems for observing information to support critical decision making, and fresh and salt water forecasting Field projects to specify observational requirements for water models Accelerate precipitation research, including downscaling and predictability Coordinate fresh/salt water transition zone observations and analyses Integrate precipitation and snowpack observation and analysis systems Augment Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation to provide data for high resolution fresh water modeling Water Resources Data Assimilation

15 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/201515 Expected Outcomes –Enhanced spatial and temporal resolution grids –Longer range predictions especially for extreme events –Long-term (10-25 year) retrospective hindcast systems –Probabilistic forecasts and new variables (e.g., soil moisture, mud slides) –Water resources information delivered by NOAA’s River Forecast Centers, Coastal Services Centers, and a national digital database Strategy –Adapt and implement Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) and Water Resources Testbed to support research to deploy advanced science for critical water predictions High Resolution Hydrologic Modeling – achieve new levels of predictive skill and reliability for river and lake levels, snowpack, and soil moisture Ensemble Hydrologic Modeling – provide short- to long-range probabilistic information for water resources managers, especially for the extreme conditions associated with floods and droughts –Leverage NOAA Climate Transition Program and Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments to develop and validate enhanced water resources forecasting capabilities Fresh Water Forecasting

16 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/201516 Expected Outcomes –Enhanced spatial and temporal resolution grids of transition zone conditions –Ecosystem stress predictions (e.g., hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, beach closings, coral bleaching conditions, fish population shifts) –Water resources information delivered by NOAA’s River Forecast Centers, Ocean Prediction Center, Coastal Services Centers, and a national digital database Strategy –Conduct research and development to deploy advanced science to provide a suite of critical transition zone and ecosystem stress predictions Transition Zone Modeling – provide high resolution estuary condition predictions for wetlands, ports, bays, and estuaries Ecosystem Stress Modeling – couple fresh and salt water modeling systems to produce transition zone stresses Augment Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation to support transition zone and ecosystem stress modeling Estuary-Fresh Water Ecosystem Predictions

17 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/201517 Clarify linkages to NOAA’s Climate Program, and International and Social Science efforts Work with Programming Planning and Integration to interface, package, and market NOAA’s synergistic water resources enterprise to a broad spectrum of partners and users Identify potential locations and requirements for Water Resources Testbed Leverage FY 2005 allocations to initiate water resources activities prior to FY 2006 FY 2006 - Apply approved program adjustments to more fully address water resources challenges via research projects in OAR (ETL and NSSL), NWS (OHD/HL and NCEP/EMC), Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, Climate Transition Program, and Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments FY 2007 - Introduce Estuary-Fresh Water Ecosystem Predictions research in Environmental Modeling Program and/or future Coasts, Estuaries, Oceans Program via Weather and Water Goal Team programming plan FY 2008 - Propose new Water Resources Program (possibly goal wide) and equip NOAA’s River Forecast Centers and Coastal Services Centers to deliver initial suite of water resources information and predictions Hydrology Program Follow-up Activities

18 Delivering Water Resources Information 5/5/201518 NOAA fills a large national gap by advancing water science NOAA’s water resources information supports decision making for: –Sustainable irrigation –More efficient power generation –Sensible, year-long water conservation plans –Rational allocation and distribution of water –More cost-effective river commerce –Protection of threatened and endangered species –Balanced terrestrial/aquatic watershed management –Enhanced aquatic habitats Bottom Line

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