Presentation on theme: "Afghanistan Adnan Naseemullah. The Issues The nature of state-building in a fragmented society; the formation of national identity Modernization and its."— Presentation transcript:
The Issues The nature of state-building in a fragmented society; the formation of national identity Modernization and its discontents Great Power conflict Causes of civil war
State Building European experience: war-making, state-making, extraction, protection (Tilly 1982)
State Building In European state- building, ‘states’ fight with other ‘states’ to increase their territory: external war-making And they fight with recalcitrant nobles, villages, etc. to tax and homogenize governance over new territory: internal state-making
State Building European experience: war-making, state-making, extraction, protection (Tilly 1982) After initial formation of nation-states, a series of processes that built ‘infrastructural capacity’: Railroads National army Education systems The welfare state
State-building in Colonial India The state-building experience is different: Mughal Empire: early modern state British Empire: focused on extraction, defence, expansion, not so much on building up state institutions: POLITICAL ACCOUNTANCY So, we see variation in state presence across territory. BUT also: law, legitimacy, liberalism, nationalism and post-colonial state-building.
State-building in Afghanistan? What does state and nation mean in Afghanistan? Pre-Durrani period: frontiers of the Safavid Empire, the Mughal Empire and the Khanates of Central Asia; authority petered out. Provincial governorates at Herat, Balkh, Kandahar, and Kabul. Central Afghanistan and the tribal hinterland ungoverned.
Identities in Afghanistan Pashtun (Durrani, Ghilzai) – 40% - eastern and southern Afghanistan, Pushto-speaking, tribal structures Tajik – 30% - non-tribal, Persian-speaking Sunni Muslims in the west (Herat), north (Mazar) and northeast (Panjshir valley), and urban centers. Hazara – 15% - Shi’a Mongol descendants from Hindu Kush / central Afghanistan Uzbek and Turkmen – 10% - Turkic Persian speakers in the North
Durrani Empire As the Mughal and Safavid Empires, declined successor states were established. Ahmad Shah Durrani (1722-1772). Abdali Pashtun -- founded Durrani Empire in 1747. Defeated Mughals and Marathas, came to dominate Afghanistan, eastern Iran and northwestern India.
First Anglo-Afghan War Timur Shah dies in 1793; empire falls apart. Conflict between Shuja Shah (Sadozai) and Dost Muhammed (Muhammadzai Barakzai); DM declares himself Amir of Kabul in 1826. 1839: Lord Auckland orders ‘the Army of the Indus’ to intervene and return Shuja to the throne, to create Afghan client state.
First Anglo-Afghan War British forces occupy Kandahar and Kabul, Dost Muhammad surrenders and Shuja declared king. British restructuring of taxation and tribal autonomy, inflation creates oppositon; Ghilzai chiefs declare jihad in 1841. Burnes and Macnaghten murdered. Jan 1842: disastrous retreat of British forces to Jalalabad; Dost Muhammad returns. Concept of jihad and national rebellion.
‘The Great Game’ Afghanistan situated between two expanding empires, neither with resources to fully occupy Afghanistan Agreement on Oxus River demarcation in 1873 Kabul balances autonomy with support from British, flirtation with the Russians
Second Anglo-Afghan War Sher Ali (1863) – administrative and military reform. British annex Quetta in 1876; Kaufman, Russian governor at Tashkent, sends diplomatic mission in 1878; Lytton ultimatum. Sher Ali expects Russian support. British invade; treaty of Gandamak with Yaqub Khan in 1879.
Second Anglo-Afghan War 1879: Louis Cavagnari heads Afghan mission; murdered by unpaid soldiers from Herat. Roberts invades Kabul. Revolts from Ghilzai and Kohistan. Abdur Rahman raised army in Turkistan in 1880. ARK reaffirms Gandamak and accepts Emirate of ‘northern Afghanistan’ from the British; Roberts defeats Ayub Khan at Kandahar in Sept 1880.
Abdur Rahman Afghan state-builder, autocrat. Reclaimed Kandahar in 1881; internal wars against Ghilzai (1886-8), war against the governor of Turkistan (1884). Integrated Hazarajat and Kafiristan after rebellion; migration of Pashtuns into Turkistan and Hazarajat.
Abdur Rahman Established new systems of direct taxation, decreased the autonomy of provinces, tribes and religious authority. Concentrated power in Kabul. No investment or modernization; Autarkic policies. Received payments in cash and arms from the British; Afghanistan Is buffer state.
Durand Line 1893: British established a line of influence separating Pashtun tribes in NWFP from those under Afghan control. Abdur Rahman refuses, but is placed under economic embargo while fighting Hazaras.
Habibullah & Amanullah Habibullah: suppression of nascent jihadi and nationalist movements, Afghan neutrality in WWI. Murdered in 1919. Amanullah: Third Anglo-Afghan War, incited tribes east of Durand to jihad. Unsuccessful, but Treaty of Rawalpindi in 1919 recognizes Afghanistan as sovereign state. Great Game Redux: diplomatic relations and aid from Soviet Union, return of payments from Britain
Amanullah and Modernization Social reforms: constitutional changes, taxes in cash, conscription, education for women, uniform code of family law, secularization. Khost Rebellion of 1924: local clergy, Pashtun tribes, Abdul Karim Khan returned from India. World Tour and revolutionary modernization Civil War of 1928
Musahiban Dynasty Kalakani loses legitimacy, Nadir Shah defeats him and takes power. 1933: Nadir Shah is killed, Zahir Shah ascends throne; uncles and cousin rule. Education and infrastructure development, but aimed at stability. elimination of rural taxation; still subsistence agriculture. Kabul vs. rest of country.
Daud Khan Premier (1953-1963), Zahir Shah dismisses him and rules under Constitution, overthrows the Shah and rules as President in 1973 until killed in 1978. Pashtunistan Policy and border closure 1961. Soviet alliance and cold war development. Modernization: Two Five Year Plans, Rights for women.
Modernization in Afghanistan? National non-integration; using the power of the state to change society. Success of Abdur Rahman, failure of Amanullah ‘Westernizing reforms’ = tribal revolt What’s different in Afghanistan?
PNPA and Afghan intervention Both Islamists and Communists in and around Kabul University. PDPA: formed in 1965, split into Khalq (Ghilzai Pashtun) and Parcham factions. Daud: alliance with leftist, educated urbanites: Parcham supported 1973 coup. Start of rebellions. 1978 Saur Revolution: Khalq overthrows Daud, sets up PDPA government. Instability and rebellion: USSR intervenes in Dec 1979 to install Percham.
The Mujahiddin insurgency Soviet control of cities, supporting PDPA govt Islamist groups start organizing militias in Pakistan, funded by the US and Saudi Arabia ($1 billion per year by mid-1980s); recruiting from refugee camps (4 million refugees) No coordination between groups: Hizb-i-Islami (Hekmatyar), Jamiat-i-Islami (Rabbani, Masud, Ismail Khan), Hiz-i-Wahdat (Ali Mazari, Khalili), Ittehad-i-Islami (Sayyaf)
Mujahiddin Civil War Soviets withdraw in 1989; Najibullah turns from Communist to Nationalist; decentralization, patronage, absorption of 60% of mujahiddin. 1991: USSR dissolves, no more aid. Thus, regime dissolves. 1992-1995: reorganization of warlord factions, conflict between different militias and the shelling of Kabul
The Rise of the Taliban Militia of émigré clerics and seminarians from JUI schools in Pakistan; trained by ISI. 1994: entered Kandahar, defeats the mujahiddin factions in conflict in southern Afghanistan, often through surrender. Entered Kabul in 1996, declares Islamic Emirate. Assorted allies.
The Fall of Taliban Reactionary social and religious policies provoked backlash, alienated domestically and internationally. Resources limited: only Pakistan giving support, plus UN humanitarian aid. 1998: al Qaeda establishes bases in Afghanistan; after 2001, US requires immediate handing over of bin Laden.
Causes of Civil War How do we explain the emergence and persistence of civil war in Afghanistan? -Greed and Grievance -Failures in State-building -Modernization and Social Reform? -Destruction of Tribal Structures -Loss of Legitimacy -External Powers
Political Order and Disorder in Pakistan’s Northwest Establishment of ‘hybrid governance’ in the Tribal Agencies in 19 th centuries Relationship between maliks and political agents persists in independent Pakistan Breaks apart when the military takes over civilian administration, insurgents attack tribal leaders after 2001
Conclusions Afghanistan: was a state built? A nation built? Modernization and its Discontents The Great Game: still being played? Can history teach us anything about policy?