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© OECD/IEA 2012 Cédric Philibert Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency Renewable energy technologies, 2030 and beyond: And the winners are… WBG Energy Day, 23 February 2012
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA Power from renewables in 2050 Renewables provide ½ to ¾ power by % 31% Variable RE 18% to 31%
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA RE generation in 2050 for key countries/regions The mix varies according to resources
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010 Demand (MW) Variability is not new, but it does get bigger with variable renewables (wind power, solar PV) Source: Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, GE Energy for NREL (2010) Demand Demand net of wind and solar Emerging challenges: grid integration © OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010 Integration of variable renewable power [Source: IEA 2011 – Harnessing Variable REnewable power] Depends on: Nature of variable renewables (techno- spread, time correlations; geo-spread) Flexibility of the whole power system Four sources of flexibility: Dispatchable generation Storage Demand-side response Interconnections IEA Flexibility ASsessment Tool © OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010 Load-matching rather than base-load Source: Mills and Cheng, 2011b Source: Mills and Cheng, 2011
© OECD/IEA 2010 Solar energy: testing the limits A possible vision, under severe climate constraints, if other low-carbon energy options are not available... Where are the technical limits to solar energy? Many electricity technologies converging towards USD100/MWh (incl. CO 2 ) around 2030 [Roadmaps, ETP] Cost no longer main limit, but footprint, variability and convenience issues Not necessarily least cost, but affordable options: Sunny and dry climates: CSP dominates Sunny and wet climates: PV backed by hydro Temperate climates: wind power and PV backed by hydro/pumped-hydro (+ gas-fired balancing plants) Assuming efficiency improvements and further electrification of buildings, industry and transport: Under best conditions, solar energy (mostly electricity) could become a key contributor to the global energy mix Some fossil fuels still needed in transport, industry, electricity © OECD/IEA, 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010 Storage needs for large-scale variable RE Hourly/daily storage for PV and wind For rare long periods without wind or sun, better use gas-fired balancing plants Inter-seasonal storage in some cases © OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010 Solar thermal electricity (CSP) Key value of STE/CSP is in thermal storage to generate electricity when needed and match demand effective and cheaper than electrical storage Sensible heat in molten salts Flexible CSP plants allow more wind and PV on the grid! Source: Torresol Energy © OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010 Storage solutions for large-scale variable RE Small or large, batteries are expensive G2V creates new opportunities for load management. V2G to shave peaks? V2G shortens battery lifetime and has a (high) cost Pumped-hydro plants the reference solution 140 GW in service, 50 GW in development Other options mostly for shorter time-scales Daily/weekly storage does not require large areas © OECD/IEA, 2012 Source: Inage, 2009.
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010 New options for pumped-hydro plants New and refurbished hydro power plants Plants can be developed independent of rivers Using the sea as lower reservoir (Okinawa-style) Using natural declivity Investment costs range: USD 500 to 2000/kW LCOE (incl. losses, 10% discount): $110/MWh-shifted No natural slope? Still feasible… On flat lands with fresh water, or off shore © OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010 In sum… Solar, Wind and Water - the largest potentials Plus: potential of solar for energy access for all… High penetration of variable renewables needs significant (pumped-hydro) storage capacities… With load-management, interconnections, smart grids, flexible hydro, CSP and fossil plants Costs of inter-seasonal storage the true limit? Renewable resources and technologies are there for 30% final energy demand by 2030 Challenges are economic, financial, administrative, public acceptance, policy commitments… © OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010
© OECD/IEA 2010 © IEA/OECD 2010 Hydrogen, an option for inter- seasonal storage? H 2 very small, not easy to retain! Much easier to use in blend with natural gas Variable RE + electrolysis + methanation? Economics of variable electrolysis at ambient T°? Economics of methanation? Overall efficiency – between 17% today and 33% with more efficient technologies? Concentrating sunlight to high temperatures offers better options to produce hydrogen Reform natural gas, gasify biomass, reduce metals Solid storage, blend in natural or biogas, liquids… © OECD/IEA 2012
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