0The Solar Energy Technologies Office Getting to Ubiquitous Solar Minh Le, DirectorSolar Energy Technologies Office
1SunShot Price SunShot Initiative SunShot Initiative 5 - 6¢/kwh without subsidyA 75% cost reduction by the end of the decadeThe SunShot Initiative is a collaborative national effort to reduce the total cost of solar by 75% so it can be cost-competitive with other energy sources by DOE supports several programs that work toward this aggressive goal along the entire cost spectrum. Among these, the Incubator program is unique because it addresses all of the targeted reduction areas needed to achieve cost parity.
2If moonshot was a race away from our planet, SunShot, in a way, is a race to save our planet. -Ali Zaidi, Domestic Policy Council
360% progress towards 2020 objectives SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020201020132020MAJOR PROGRESSPRIORITY AREAS60% progress towards2020 objectives
4SunShot Utility Scale Progress Q42013 Sources: Margolis , R., et al. (2012). "SunShot Vision Study." DOE/GO Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, pp Accessed 2013: Goodrich, A; James, T; and Woodhouse, M. “Residential, Commercial, and Utility-Scale Photovoltaic System Prices in the United States: Current Drivers and Cost Reduction Opportunities.” NREL Technical Report No. TP-6A , Available Online at: . ; NREL internal (PV system cost) analysis (September 2013).
5PV Module Prices Reaching $.50/W could take until 2030 for Si modules* In 2010, PV modules were selling between $1.70/W to $1.90/W. The industry was more interested in making money in the near term, profits were strong. Subsidies were strong around the world. Secretary Chu challenged the DOE to look beyond subsidies, and envision a world where renewable energy can compete against conventional forms of energy generation without subsidies. For solar, PV modules would need to sell at around $0.50/W.If you look at a straight trendline on the experience curve, it would take until 2030 to reach $0.50/W modules. Our challenge was to help the industry achieve that in half the time that was expected. Our goals were twice as aggressive as industry was.In the past couple of years, excess manufacturing supply was built up. PV modules are now selling below $0.80/W, less than half the prices just 2 years ago. A decades worth of cost reduction happened overnight. Without the vision of SunShot to enable our industry to develop technological solutions that are more aggressive than their roadmaps, our industry would be even more unprepared for these challenging times.Reaching $.50/W could take until 2030 for Si modules*
615 GW of solar 4.75 GW PV in 2013 10x growth rate from 2009 SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020201020132020MAJOR PROGRESSPRIORITY AREAS15 GW of solar4.75 GW PV in 201310x growth rate from 2009
7Jobs: 143,000 SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020 2010 2013 MAJOR PROGRESSPRIORITY AREASJobs: 143,000
8Sunshot incubator $18 Private for every $1 Public SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020201020132020MAJOR PROGRESSPRIORITY AREASSunshot incubator$18 Private forevery $1 Public
9SOFT COSTS SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020 2010 2013 MAJOR PROGRESSPRIORITY AREASSOFT COSTS
10GRID INTEGRATION SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020 2010 20132020MAJOR PROGRESSPRIORITY AREASGRID INTEGRATION
11CSP STORAGE s-CO2 SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020 2010 20132020MAJOR PROGRESSPRIORITY AREASCSP STORAGEs-CO2
12MANUFACTURING COMPETITIVENESS SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020201020132020MAJOR PROGRESSPRIORITY AREASMANUFACTURINGCOMPETITIVENESS
13Erosion of Domestic PV cell and Module Manufacturing 42%2%
14Manufacturing“Abandoning today's ‘commodity’ manufacturing can lock you out of tomorrow's emerging industry.”Andy Grove, co-founder, former CEO, Intel“The cost of creating jobs grew from a few thousand dollars per position to a hundred thousand today”“Job-centric” leadership and incentives are needed to expand U.S. domestic employment again
15The SunShot Portfolio Balance of Systems Systems Integration CSP R&D PV R&DTech to MarketCSP R&DSystems IntegrationBalance of Systems
16Concentrating Solar Power Dr. Ranga Pitchumani Focus areas:Solar FieldReceiverThermal fluid/storagePower BlockHas led to commercialization of the largest CSP plants in the world
172010 & 2013 CSP Baselines and SunShot Goal 8 ¢/kWh reduction in LCOE (38%) from 2010 to 2013An additional 7 ¢/kWh (54%) LCOE reduction still necessary to achieve SunShot goalsNote: assumes no ITC. $2013 converted to $2010 using the “Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index.“
18Photovoltaics R&D Dr. Rebecca Jones-Albertus Focus areas:New types of materials and device approaches that enable higher PV performance, greater reliability and reduced costTranslational research and development to bridge gaps in applied research with those in device and materials development and manufacturing environmentHas resulted in US leadership in PV R&DOver 50% of the world record solar cell efficiencies have been supported by DOE funded researchersSupported the technology that is the foundation many companies in the industry such as First Solar, SunPower, Suniva
20Innovations in Manufacturing R&D (Tech to Market) Dr. Lidija Sekaric Focus areas:Competitiveness AnalysisTranslating technology from the laboratory to the marketplaceManufacturing R&D to enable US companies to compete globallyResulted in tremendous returns on US tax dollars (>$1.7B)Long-Run U.S. Manufacturing Opportunities
21SolarMAT: Manufacturing and Supply Chain Technology R&D High Impact TechnologiesTechnologies which provide cost reductions and performance improvements with broad application across the industryStrengthen the domestic PV industryTechnologies developed under this program can be adopted directly into current manufacturing processes
23Field Validation of PV Systems Maybe replace with slide on SEGIS ACField Validation of PV SystemsHigh altitude, temperate climateModerate to high precipitation; harsh winter conditions, low DNISubtropical; high DNI; high temperaturesHot, humid, (subtropical conditions);moderate DNIHot and aridhigh DNI.
24Today’s Power System … Two Way Power Flow Fast forward to tomorrow’s power system and you see a world that is more distributed, more digital, and more decentralized. This results from a combination of trends:- Retirement of older coal plants- New renewables to meet state RPS- Investments in energy efficiency and demand response- Low cost natural gasThere are several key technology challenges that will need to be addressed *with innovation* to make this happen.And the pace of innovation will dictate what the ultimate cost to society will be of making this transition to the power system of the future.Let’s start on the right-hand side – with the consumer – and talk about some of those innovations.Generation-TransmissionSubstationDistribution SystemSource: NREL-Coddington modified Alvin R.
25Developing technology to better integrate solar with the grid
26Today’s Power System … Two Way Power Flow Fast forward to tomorrow’s power system and you see a world that is more distributed, more digital, and more decentralized. This results from a combination of trends:- Retirement of older coal plants- New renewables to meet state RPS- Investments in energy efficiency and demand response- Low cost natural gasThere are several key technology challenges that will need to be addressed *with innovation* to make this happen.And the pace of innovation will dictate what the ultimate cost to society will be of making this transition to the power system of the future.Let’s start on the right-hand side – with the consumer – and talk about some of those innovations.Generation-TransmissionSubstationDistribution SystemSource: NREL-Coddington modified Alvin R.
28This isn’t necessarily a new problem, mainly just a different way of looking at the same problem While we weren’t explicitly focused on “soft costs” back in the day, by which I mean 2011, we were trying to “transform markets” through programs like Solar America CitiesThese programs were very successful at kickstarting local and regional solar markets.We learned quite a bit about what works in opening up new solar marketsm piloted projects like Solarize in Portland, made great advances in city/state policy reforms in places like Utah, where their “Freeing the Grid” net metering score went from an F to an A.But there were a few problems:We didn’t have an effective vehicle for identifying the best approaches to what we called “market transformation” back in the day and then scaling those upWe weren’t doing a great job of systematically measuring the impact of our local/state interventions in terms of assessing the maturity of the solar markets, especially with regards to the cost of solar
29Unlike physics, where we can fundamentally figure out the upper limit for the efficiency of solar cells, there is no such limit to bureaucracy
31Well, let's say you can shave 10 seconds off of the boot time Well, let's say you can shave 10 seconds off of the boot time. Multiply that by five million users and that’s 50 million seconds, every single day. Over a year, that's probably dozens of lifetimes. So if you make it boot ten seconds faster, you've saved a dozen lives. That's really worth it, don't you think?
3222 Rooftop Solar Challenge Teams Cut red tape by 1 week 600 MW installed40,000 installations40,000 weeks of red tape = 768 Years of red tape
33Minh Le Director Solar Energy Technologies Office SunShot Initiative email@example.com