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Lecture Seven The Breakdown of Keynesianism The Rise and Fall of the Phillips Curve The Neoclassical Revival The Keynesian Counter-attack: logical flaws.

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Presentation on theme: "Lecture Seven The Breakdown of Keynesianism The Rise and Fall of the Phillips Curve The Neoclassical Revival The Keynesian Counter-attack: logical flaws."— Presentation transcript:

1 Lecture Seven The Breakdown of Keynesianism The Rise and Fall of the Phillips Curve The Neoclassical Revival The Keynesian Counter-attack: logical flaws in Neoclassicism

2 Recap IS-LM dominates interpretation of Keynes Keynes a “marginalist”: liquidity preference as marginal cost of interest foregone in holding money Role of expectations under true uncertainty ignored Neoclassical synthesis: combination of IS-LM macro with Walrasian micro

3 Breakdown of Keynesianism: “Philips Curve” 1958 study identifies relationship between unemployment & rate of change of money wages Consonant with Keynes on real wages and employment –Inc. output --> decrease real wages --> prices must rise “Inflation-unemployment trade-off” perceived as core of Keynesian policy 1960s--accelerating inflation. “Breakdown” of Philips’ Curve opens door to Friedman’s monetarism

4 The Phillips Curve 3 factors which might influence rate of change of money wages: –Level of unemployment (highly nonlinear relationship) –Rate of change of unemployment –Rate of change of retail prices “operating through cost of living adjustments in wage rates… when retail prices are forced up by a very rapid rise in import prices … or … agricultural products.” [Economica 1958 p ] Cost-based perspective on prices Developed curve from UK wage change/unemployment statistics from Only 1st of 3 causal factors shown in curve

5 The Phillips Curve Found a “clear tendency” for –inverse relation between U and rate of change of money wages (  w m ) –  w m above curve when U falling, and v.v Fitted exponential curve to data: wmwm Unemployment

6 The Phillips Curve Fitted through average wage change & U for 0-2,2-3,3-4, 4-5,5-7,7-11% unemployment Deviations from trend because of: Wage-price spiral due to wars; falling U Rising unemployment

7 The Phillips Curve fitted to data Rapid rise in U; 13% fall in M prices; “cost of living” agreements War-induced rise in M prices

8 The Phillips Curve: data with time lag Close fit of 50s UK data to curve Import price rise

9 The Phillips Curve Conclusion: Phillips extrapolates from money wages to price inflation: –“Ignoring years in which import prices … initiate a wage-price spiral, which seems to occur very rarely except as a result of war, and assuming an increase in productivity of 2% p.a., … [for] a stable level of product prices … unemployment would be … 2.5%. [For] stable wage rates … about 5.5%” [p. 299] –An inflation-unemployment trade-off? But Phillips’ main purpose for developing it was to provide an input for his dynamic models in which unemployment, output, etc., varied cyclically. Nonetheless, trade-off interpretation becomes part of orthodox Keynesianism

10 The Phillips Curve: Breakdown…? Vietnam war OPEC I OPEC II

11 The rise of monetarism Friedman’s explanation: adaptive expectations, the short run trade-off but long run vertical Phillips curve Basic model: –Exogenously given money-supply (“helicopters”) –Walrasian economy in long-run equilibrium: all prices currently market-clearing –No sale of capital assets possible –Static-stochastic economy: no growth, aggregates constant, but random disturbances to individuals “Aggregates are constant, but individuals are subject to uncertainty and change. Even the aggregates may change in a stochastic way, provided the mean values do not.” [OREF II 119]

12 Monetarism Basic model (cont.) –Motives for holding money: Transactions (barter motive) “uncertainty” says Milton, but: means of aggregates constant, stochastic variation only? Risk, not uncertainty. –No variation in parameters of risk considered –Holdings of money related to level of transactions: M d = k.I –Exogenous increase in M s --> initial increase in output but constrained by already fully-employed economy price level bid up till “real value” of money holdings restored Back to Hicks’s pre-Keynesian “typical classical theory”

13 Monetarism Continuous growth in M s ? –(corresponds to policy for lower U under Phillips curve inflation/U tradeoff) –“which, perhaps after a lag, becomes fully anticipated by everyone”; adaptive expectations [OREF II] –results in… Adaptive Expectations (with certainty) –“what raises the price level, if at all points markets are cleared and real magnitudes are stable?... Because everyone confidently anticipates that prices will rise…” [OREF II] –Increasing M s raises prices, no impact on output in long run (short run impact until expectations adapt)

14 Adaptive Expectations and the Phillips Curve “Long run Phillips Curve” Target Rate SRPC 1 SRPC 3 SRPC 2 Inflation Unemployment Expected Inflation=  M s -  Lab.Prod  M s causes some growth but… Expectations adapt Initial “natural” U rate with zero expected inflation Expectations adapt Accelerating inflation needed to sustain target Short run gain with long run pain... Economy returns to pre-existing “natural” rate

15 From Monetarism to Rational Expectations Friedman adaptive expectations –expectations adapt to change after experience of inflation caused by increased money supply –short-term impact of policy neutralised in long term Rational Expectations (Muth/Sargent): expectations predict consequence of change based on rational model of reality: –“expectations … are essentially the same as the predictions of the relevant economic theory.” [OREF III] Combined with lag formulae as explanation for cycles: Expected price in cyclical market a weighted sum of previous prices See chaos theory, later

16 Rational Expectations Macro “the public knows the monetary authority’s feedback rule and takes this into account in forming its expectations… unanticipated movements in the money supply cause movements in y [output], but anticipated movements do not.” [OREF III] “Predictions of relevant theory” are: increased M s will increase price level --> instant adjustment of prices to government M s policy --> no impact on output “Natural rate” of unemployment + rational expectations = policy ineffectiveness hypothesis:

17 Rational Expectations Macro “by virtue of the assumption that expectations are rational, there is no feedback rule that the authority can employ and expect to be able systematically to fool the public. This means that the authority cannot expect to exploit the Phillips curve even for one period.” [OREF] A vertical Phillips curve in short run Prediction that policy could never have been effective Short-run movements in unemployment due to unanticipated shocks

18 Problems for Rational Expectations (1) Was Keynesian policy “ineffective”? (see next table) –By RE, differences between Keynesian & Neoclassical policy periods should be Higher M growth, Inflation No difference in unemployment (2) Why the Great Depression? –“Natural rate” moves by 30%??? (3) Movement of “natural rate” (hysteresis?) (4) Nature of expectations –Keynes: behaviour under fundamental uncertainty –RE: behaviour under certainty, using economic theory to predict

19 The Keynesian/Neoclassical Scorecard Outcomes contradict RE Hypothesis: Keynesian period has Lower Money Growth, Inflation, Interest Rates, Unemployment Higher Growth How could this be if policy was “ineffective”? Did the economy suddenly deteriorate? (possibly true…)

20 Theoretical Developments Behind policy fight, theoretical battles –Perfection of Walrasian GE model (Arrow-Debreu) –Classically-inspired critique of neoclassicism (Sraffa) Arrow-Debreu General Equilibrium –proof of existence/uniqueness/stability/optimality of equilibrium (completing Walras’ work), but –under assumptions of given resources, given tastes, given possible future states of world, “contingent contracts”, and no uncertainty, and peculiar definition of commodities The Keynesian Critique: reality that “factors of production” are commodities, labour, land applied to show that neoclassical theory is internally inconsistent

21 The “Cambridge Controversies” Critique of neoclassical economics initiated by Joan Robinson, Piero Sraffa (Cambridge UK) over nature of capital vis a vis land, labour Theory defended by Paul Samuelson, Robert Solow (Cambridge USA) Focus of attack: validity of neoclassical theory of distribution based on supply and demand

22 The “Cambridge Controversies” Neoclassical theory argues that –increasing supply of factor of production will reduce its price –reducing its price will increase its use in production –Factor’s price equals its marginal product –Direct relationship between supply of factor and its price –Models production as involving “factors of production” (Land, Labour, Capital) as inputs and goods as outputs –versus classical position: goods produced using goods and labour as inputs The neoclassical position of profit and capital is…

23 The “Cambridge Controversies” Output Capital Increasing supply… Decreasing price... Labour Capital Increasing use of factor relative to others... Marginal Product Capital Diminishing marginal product Rate of profit is the marginal product of capital…

24 The “Cambridge Controversies” Sraffa, 1960 –Take economy in full general equilibrium All “marginal” changes complete –What determines prices in full equilibrium if all marginal changes are over? –Self-reproducing system of commodity production inputs commodities & labour output commodities equilibrium prices of outputs must enable their purchase as inputs in next period –System (1): Simple reproduction, commodity inputs only:

25 The “Cambridge Controversies” 240 qr wheat + 12 t iron + 18 pigs --> 450 qr wheat 90 qr wheat + 6 t iron + 12 pigs --> 21 t iron 120 qr wheat + 3 t iron + 30 pigs --> 60 pigs 450 qr wheat | 21 t iron | 60 pigs (sum of inputs=sum of outputs) Regardless of demand, prices must allow system to reproduce itself: –450 qr wheat must buy 240 qr wheat, 12 t iron, 18 pigs –21 t iron must buy 90 qr wheat, 6 t iron, 12 pigs –60 pigs must buy 120 qr wheat, 3 t iron, 30 pigs

26 The “Cambridge Controversies” System of production: As a matrix equation: Has the solution: i.e., price system for simple reproduction independent of demand, marginal utility, etc.; depends instead on system of production

27 The “Cambridge Controversies” System (2): Expanded reproduction surplus produced, must be split between capitalists and workers –in equilibrium, a uniform rate of profit r, uniform wage w Amount of A used to produce B Amount of B produced Labor fully employed +ive net output

28 The “Cambridge Controversies” r & w values determine split of surplus between capitalists, workers. To determine prices, must therefore know either r or w beforehand –Distribution therefore not determined by “market” –Instead, different pattern of prices for every pattern of distribution: marginal productivity theory of income distribution incorrect in general equilibrium But what about validity of production function, isoquants, when marginal changes still relevant?

29 The “Cambridge Controversies” Neoclassical position (by Samuelson): –Concedes Classical position more factual output produced by heterogeneous commodities and labour, aggregate capital an abstraction –But neoclassical position still defensible as an abstraction Samuelson (for neoclassicals) argues –isoquants just a parable we use to teach students –reality is different technologies, each with fixed ratio of capital to labour –increase in price of capital will lead to less capital intensive technology being chosen:

30 The “Cambridge Controversies” Labour Capital Technology 1: low K/L ratio, used when K expensive Technology 5: high K/L ratio, used when K cheap “Envelope” is isoquant Decreasing price of capital means more capital intensive methods used, akin to simple parable that decreased price means more capital used

31 The “Cambridge Controversies” As an aside, Samuelson ridicules classical theory’s problems with labour theory of value, that capital-labour ratios must be the same in all industries. Problem: Samuelson assumes each technology can be represented by a straight line relationship between capital and labour Garegnani shows that straight line relationship only applies if capital to labour ratio is the same in all industries If K/L ratios differ, each technology will be represented by a curve, not a straight line Curves can cut each other in more than one place:

32 The “Cambridge Controversies” Labour Capital Technology 1: low K/L ratio, used when K expensive “Envelope” is isoquant Technology 1: could also be used when K cheap Technology 2: only used in intermediate K/L price range Problem known as “reswitching”: simple neoclassical parable does not work when multiple industries considered.

33 The “Cambridge Controversies” Why a curved relationship? –The definition of capital What is “capital”? –Money? –Machine? Both, obviously; but how to “add” machines together? Money value only common feature –but money value reflects expected profit –“rate of return” and “value of capital” thus linked Sraffa’s solution: reduce all machines to “dated labour” –Machine today produced with labour last year, plus machinery inputs last year

34 The “Cambridge Controversies” If economy has been in long run equilibrium for indefinite past –then all goods produced earned normal rate of profit r –therefore value of machine now equals value of previous year’s inputs (labour and capital) multiplied by 1+r –Do it again: replace last year’s machine inputs with labour and capital used to produce those machines multiplied by 1+r –Get a whole series of terms for the labor input each year multiplied by 1+r, (1+r) 2, (1+r) 3 –Machine/commodity component reducible to almost (but not quite) zero.

35 The “Cambridge Controversies” Next: the “standard commodity” –Earlier, Sraffa shows how to devise a “measure of value” unaffected by the distribution of income: the “standard commodity” –When measured using this, there is a simple linear relationship between the real wage w, the rate of profit r, and the maximum possible rate of profit R: This can be reworked to give an expression for the wage in terms of the rate of profit:

36 The “Cambridge Controversies” Each year’s labor input to producing a machine today is thus broken down into –the number of units of labor performed (say 1 unit) –times the wage rate w (now expressed in terms of r & R) –times 1+r raised to the power of n, for how many years ago the labor was applied: Expression gives an unambiguous value for today’s capital input in terms of dated labor, but… the measured value of capital depends on the rate of profit: Wage in terms of rate of profit Rate of profit Number of years ago that machine was made

37 The “Cambridge Controversies” So rather than the rate of profit depending on the amount of capital (marginal product theory of income distribution), the amount of capital depends on the rate of profit Second problem: this relationship is very nonlinear –First part falls uniformly as rate of profit rises –Second part rises slowly as r rises rises rapidly as n (number of years ago rises) –Two parts interact very unevenly For small change in r, second effect outweighs first as n rises For large change in r, first effect outweighs second for small n In between, can’t pick whether increasing r will increase or decrease measured amount of capital:

38 The “Cambridge Controversies” Value of machine produced with one unit of labor applied n years ago at a rate of profit r between zero and 25% when R=25%: Made this year (n=0) r=0 r=25% Made 5 years ago (n=5) Made 10 years ago (n=10) Made 25 years ago (n=25) Measured value rises & then falls as rate of profit rises

39 The “Cambridge Controversies” Can’t apply marginal productivity theory to capital: –return to capital can’t reflect marginal product of capital measured amount of capital depends on rate of profit –numerator/y-axis (r) and denominator/x-axis (“amount of capital”) are interdependent –relationship is “messy” rises as r rises for a while then falls as r rises –Rate of profit therefore can’t be “marginal productivity of capital” Output Capital Diminishing marginal product

40 The “Cambridge Controversies” Numerous other facets to Cambridge Controversies Minority of neoclassicals who got involved in debate (Samuelson, Solow, Hahn, etc.) had 2 eventual responses –Grudgingly conceded critique had validity and started to develop alternative approaches to neoclassicism themselves (Samuelson, Solow) –Abandoned attempt to make neoclassical economics relevant to real world and developed general equilibrium models as abstract thought experiments only (Hahn, etc.) Majority of neoclassicals assumed (wrongly) that debate won by neoclassicals and continued on as always. Raises issues of methodology (is economics a science?) discussed in 2 weeks. Next week, finance...


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