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Thomas Fenzl Thomas Brudermann Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no- data-decision-making-situation 1 Risk-Perception and Risk-Evaluation in a No-Data-

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Presentation on theme: "Thomas Fenzl Thomas Brudermann Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no- data-decision-making-situation 1 Risk-Perception and Risk-Evaluation in a No-Data-"— Presentation transcript:

1 Thomas Fenzl Thomas Brudermann Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no- data-decision-making-situation 1 Risk-Perception and Risk-Evaluation in a No-Data- Decision-Making-Situation Thomas Fenzl Thomas Brudermann Department for Economic Psychology Alpen-Adria Universität Klagenfurt

2 Thomas Fenzl Thomas Brudermann Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no- data-decision-making-situation 2 Related Work Other-Directedness (Riesmann 1952) Bounded Rationality (Simon 1957) Behavioral Economics (Pelzmann 2002) Behavior in No-data-situations (Schachter & Singer 1962, Hanson and Putler 1995, Salganik et al. 2006, Olsson et al. 2007, Bossaerts 2007)

3 Thomas Fenzl Thomas Brudermann Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no- data-decision-making-situation 3 Aims and Objectives How do people deal with risk? –in novel situations –when information is lacking –and affective arousal is increased How do people perceive and evaluate risk? –Which role does the behavior of other people play? How can we exclude laboratory side-effects?

4 Thomas Fenzl Thomas Brudermann Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no- data-decision-making-situation 4 Methods Real world situation: oral exam, n=59 Novelty: 2 different examiners –well-known, notorious professor (P1) –unknown, friendly assistant (P2) 3-stage experimental design –decision –manipulation –post-survey

5 Thomas Fenzl Thomas Brudermann Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no- data-decision-making-situation 5 Legend: E1, E2: Entrances P1, P2: Examiners E1E2 Lecture Hall P1 P2 Waiting Area P2 Candidates Waiting Area P1 Candidates Adjacent Room: Exams without Audience

6 Thomas Fenzl Thomas Brudermann Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no- data-decision-making-situation 6 Results – Stage 1 (Decision) 2/3 of the participants opted for the less attractive, but familiar alternative (notorious professor) Only 1/3 chose the new alternative with the friendly, young, but unfamiliar assistant –Motivation: e.g. less queue time

7 Thomas Fenzl Thomas Brudermann Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no- data-decision-making-situation 7 Results – Stage 2 (manipulation) Manipulation: –First three candidates of unfamiliar examiner returned silent, bleak and depressed from their exam –Two candidates revised their previous decision for the unfamiliar examiner 17% of the candidates revised their previous decision for the unfamiliar examiner in consequence of the manipulation

8 Thomas Fenzl Thomas Brudermann Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no- data-decision-making-situation 8 Results – Stage 3 (post-survey) professorassistant doubts15%65% no doubts85%35% χ 2 =6,838; df=1; α=5%

9 Thomas Fenzl Thomas Brudermann Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no- data-decision-making-situation 9 Conclusions and Open Problems „Dummy“-Strategy (Observations) –playing kids, professional water-skiers, rats Wide variety of reactions to the novel situation –„Play it the save way“: Avoid attractive, but novel situations –Other-Directed: perceive and evaluate risk by observing others –Self-confidence & preparation: Trusting in own abilities and taking chance despite warning signals

10 Thomas Fenzl Thomas Brudermann Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no- data-decision-making-situation 10 Discussion


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