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BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company. Copyright © 2008 Boeing. All rights reserved. The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing. Aviation at a Crossroads? AGTA Annual Meeting Seattle, Wa September 22, 2009 Robert M. Peterson Technical Fellow
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY Agenda This afternoon’s tour logistics Current Market Outlook Challenges Airport Airside ATC/ATM Security Economics Environment Airport Landside Other Closing comment
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY Factory Tour Badges No cameras Approved shoes
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY AcceptableNot Acceptable Shoes for the Everett Factory Floor Summary of Requirements Examples: “Mary Janes”, Sandals, Crocs, “Sling- backs”, other casual and dress shoes that do NOT meet the “foot coverage” and “heel dimension” requirements. Examples: Tennis shoes, closed heel clogs, casual and dress shoes that meet the “foot coverage” and “heel dimension” requirements. Add a Picture
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY Where is commercial aviation in the US headed?
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY 20-year forecast: strong long-term growth
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY Air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstops Frequency Growth Nonstop Markets Average Airplane Size Air Travel Growth August OAG World Index 1988=1.00 All routes 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 19891991199319951997199920012003200520072009
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY RPKs, billions Region’s Average Growth: 3.2% Region’s Average GDP Growth: 2.4% North American air travel growth varies by market 2007 traffic Added Traffic 2008 - 2027 Added Traffic 2008 - 2027 Annual growth % 4.6 2.5 3.5 3.2 6.7 6.0 6.7 6.9 5.7 6.6 7.4 04008001,2001,600 North America to/from Africa North America to/from Southwest Asia North America to/from Oceania North America to/from Middle East North America to/from Southeast Asia North America to/from China North America to/from South America North America to/from Northeast Asia North America to/from Central America North America to/from Europe Within North America
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY North American airlines will need 7,690 new airplanes Large Twin-aisle Single-aisle Regional jet Size category Market value: $680 billion
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY 2,920 Growth 38% 2,010 Retained Fleet 20082028 More than half of North America deliveries will be replacements 4,770 Replacement 62% 9,700 7,690 6,780 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Units
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY North American long-haul routes to nearly double
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY North America forecast vs. backlog 7,690 New Airplane Deliveries 2009 to 2028 900 Airplane Backlog 2009 27 Regional jets 3% 661 Single-aisle 73% 203 Twin-aisle 23% 12 Large 1% 34 890 Regional jets 11% 5,630 Single-aisle 73% 1,130 Twin-aisle 15% 40 Large 1% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 0 200 400 600 800
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY North America – Top 10 Airports in 2007 Source: ACI
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY Challenges – Airport Airside Geography Technology Economics
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY Challenges – ATC/ATM Technology Money Politics
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY Challenges – Security 100% Cargo Screening (in passenger aircraft bellies) Risk Management
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY Challenges – Economics Current Credit/Fiscal Crisis Fuel Price volatility Recession focuses government attention away from capacity for growth
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY Challenges – Environment What are the rules going to be? How does aviation participate cost effectively?
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY Challenges – Airport Landside Local Transportation Land Use “Green”
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY Challenges – Other
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY Final Comments Growth Will Return – When? Are we in the middle of the “Perfect Storm?” Will it set the industry onto a new course? Will there be another one soon?
COPYRIGHT © 2009 THE BOEING COMPANY The next Current Market Outlook The 2009 version of the CMO is available on our website http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html
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