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Fish farming, water and climate in northern Thailand: insurance and water management as potential risk mitigation options Manoj Potapohn, Ph.D Lecturer.

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Presentation on theme: "Fish farming, water and climate in northern Thailand: insurance and water management as potential risk mitigation options Manoj Potapohn, Ph.D Lecturer."— Presentation transcript:

1 Fish farming, water and climate in northern Thailand: insurance and water management as potential risk mitigation options Manoj Potapohn, Ph.D Lecturer at Faculty of Economics Chiang Mai University and activity leader of economics & institution component in aquadapt research project

2 Context of the study Current climate, 2 main types of fish with 3 production techniques Characteristics of the systems Different characteristics fishUndesirable exit is driven by two types of ish: market & climate Red tilapia (Pla Tabtim Nile tilapia (Pla Nin) Cage x Pond x Cage in a pond w/ aeration system x Red tilapia Nile tilapia Cage: red tilapiaPond: Nile tilapia Intensity (fish/cu.m) Dr Niwoot of Mae Jo University 67 80-100 (in 3x3x1.5m pond) 3 Input sources (feed and animal health care) Field study Purchased from contract farming partners More flexible with self production possibility (feed via plankton)

3 hypothesis of the study Two types of risk: market & climate – Possibly, the market risk is borne or shared within chosen form of production organization: contract farming, independent & farmers cooperatives Stress under current climate – variations in water quantity and quality Two possible interventions: – insurance ~ to replace current compensation under disasters risk management – water management ~ make water allocation responsive to fish farming water demand/ water quality monitoring

4 Thailand’s rivers: Chao Phaya and Nan

5 Sirikit dam Klongtron reservoir Kwae Noi dam Naraesuan dam Phayaman wier Nam-Rid project Uttaradit Phitsanuloke Phichit Nakorn sawan Study area for cage fish farming

6 Nan Ping wang yom แม่น้ำเจ้าพระยา Bhumibh ol dam Sirikit dam Chao phraya dam Naresua n dam Mae ngad dam Kiew lom dam Kwaenoi dam สะแกกรัง Pasak cholasit dam อุตรดิตถ์ นครสวรรค์ พิจิตร พิษณุโลก Water infrastructure in the study area (cage fish farming)



9 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00 200.00 220.00 240.00 260.00 280.00 300.00 050100150200250300350400450500550600650700 distance (kilometers) height (meter above sea level) Shore level River level Phay ao phrae sukhothai phitsanuloke phichit S=1:900 S=1:2,300 S=1:11,000 S=1:5,000 S=1:35,000 S=1:9,000 0 Width of the channel(meters) 40 80 3,8002,2432,276 1,140 1,511 1,295 Amount of water 1995 Capacity of the river channel (cum/sec) 400 800 2,2001,250520 300 Flood risk: Cross section map of rivers in the north

10 การเลี้ยงปลาใน กระชัง Seasonal pattern of the water demand by cage fish farmers 1 during the dry season (Dec- April.) water release for crop farming at central region, fish farmers are unaffected 2. End of rainy season (aug-nov.) retain water in the reservoir to prevent flood in central region causing reduction in the flow and Hence a problem with fish farming

11 Water level in the nan river 2009

12 water quality monitoring & testing by a farmer in Phitsanuloke

13 Meuang District Mae Lao district Phan Mae Jai district Chiang rai Phayao Mae suai dam Study area for pond fish farming: Phan district, Chiang Rai & Phayao province

14 Tilapia in a Phayao farm Tilapia in a Phayao farm

15 water infrastructure near the farm water infrastructure near the farm

16 Tilapia farming in 2 nd Phayao farm

17 mountain water piped into the 2 nd farm mountain water piped into the 2 nd farm

18 Cage in the pond with aeration system

19 Theoretical framework David Feeny’s notion of supply of institutional arrangement, to the reduce the damage (demand) brought about by climate change – David Feeny, The Demand for and Supply of Institutional Arrangements, in RETHINKING INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENT: Issues, Alternative and Choice 159 (Vincent Ostrom et al. eds., 1988 ). Insight from Agrawala and Fankhauser (2008) in (a) decentralized nature of adaptation decisions in comparison to mitigation of GHG – “[A]daptation is a decentralised process, there is the question whether, and if so how, economic agents need to be incentivised to adapt. This is a question for public policy.” Agrawala, Shardul and Samuel Fankhauser (ed) (2008) Economic Aspects of Adaptation to Climate Change, Costs, benefits and Policy Instruments, OECD Insurance could condition payment on prescribed private avoidance activities –Public support needs not be in the form of subsidies but from public information (e.g. monitoring on water quality)

20 Methods Iterative process of investigations –validation with stakeholders: farmers/ irrigation authority/ water resource dept/ local government After Christopher Udry (AER paper on field work) and EcoHealth approach Empirical based model building & fieldworks –Bayesian Belief Network model on farmers decision to cope with climate & production risk & then insurance demand –Water accounting, and a hydroeconomic type of river basin model

21 Preliminary finding Estimated size of the ‘fish farming water economy’ (after Van de Hield 1903, Water economy of siam) Cage farming in Uttaradit & Phitsanuloke Pond farming in Phan district Output8440 cages from Uttaradit (4900) Ta Takien (40) Bang Ka Toom(3500) 15mt/d Gross revenue729.2 million baht (8,440x900x0.8x0.6x80x2.5) 328.5 million baht Estimated value added 218.7 million baht (30% of gross revenue) 131.4 million baht (40% of gross revenue) Water demand100cum/sec or ~8.68mcm/d ?

22 Preliminary Findings Cycle in price & production of Nile Tilapia – Currently, it is a good time, price increases to Baht 60/kg from Baht40/kg a year ago. Supply is down because fish ponds are taken out of production and switching away to paddy crop farming due to government purchase Media attention to loss by farmers – Frequent loss is a recent phenomena emerged in only about 3 years’ time, according to an irrigation official Fish water demand is left out in the process water allocation decision; agricultural interest is based solely on crop irrigation – Local authority & reservoir managers do respond to farmers demand for water (de facto aquaculture water right). But decision making is centralized after the 2011 flood; the new regime is untested. Private sector plays important role in industry development

23 Thank you for your attention Acknowledgement: Royal Irrigation Department, Region 3 Sirikit dam Mae Suai & Mae Lao Irrigation Office IDRC Canada SEI Bangkok Office National University of Singapore Mae Jo University Chiang Mai University (Faculty of Economics & Unit of Social and Environmental Research, USER)

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