Real GDP forecasts Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and Treasury. 2
Revisions to IMF growth forecasts Note: Evolution of IMF forecasts for world growth (calendar year). Source: IMF WEO. 3
China and MTP growth contributions Note: MTP growth aggregated using Australia’s export shares. Source: ABS cat. no. 5368.0, IMF October 2014 World Economic Outlook and Treasury. 4 -4 0 4 8 0 4 8 19931995199719992001200320052007200920112013 Percentagepoints China'scontribution to MTP growth Ex-China contribution to MTP growth Percentagepoints MTP growth
Iron ore Export volumesSpot price 6 Note: Commercial-in-confidence Source: ABS cat. no. 5302.0, Platts and Treasury.
Terms of trade 7 Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.
Non-resources GDP growth Contributions to real GDP growth Note: Assumes that mining investment has an import share of 50 per cent. Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and 5302.0, BREE and Treasury. 8 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18 Percentage points Net resources investmentResources exports Projections Forecasts Projections Resources
Housing market indicators Building approvals Source: ABS cat. no. 8731.0 and 5609.0. Housing finance 9
Source: ABS 8501.0, Westpac-Melbourne Institute and ANZ-Roy Morgan. Retail trade and consumer confidence Retail tradeConfidence measures 10
Non-mining investment indicators Note: Non-mining business conditions and confidence reflects the weights of non-mining sectors in the NAB survey. This is not necessarily the same as non-mining sectors share of GVA. Source: NAB Monthly Business Survey. Note: Estimates of CAPEX have been adjusted using long run realisation ratios. Source: ABS cat. no. 5625.0 Conditions and confidence CAPEX 11
Labour market Source: ABS cat. no. 6202.0 and 6345.0. 12
World outbound tourism (Resident departures by country of origin) Note: Figures for China include travel to Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Source: United Nations World Tourism Organisation 17
Projections of the global middle class by region Source: Kharas, H and Gertz G, 2010, ‘The New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East’ in C Li (ed), China’s Emerging Middle Class: Beyond Economic Transformation, Washington, DC, Brookings Institution Press. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 200920202030 North AmericaEuropeAsia PacificCentral and South AmericaAfrica and Middle East Billions (persons) 18
Top five merchandise exports to China 20062013 Source: DFAT. 19
Resource investment – major projects Note: Treasury’s major resources projects profile is the sum of spending on existing and planned resources projects greater than $2 billion, weighted by their probability of going ahead. Source: Treasury. 20
Nominal GDP forecasts Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and Treasury. 21
Market inflation expectations 22 Note: Market inflation expectations are derived from inflation swaps. Expectations are not available for China. Source: Bloomberg
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