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Australian Economic Outlook. Real GDP forecasts Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and Treasury. 2.

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Presentation on theme: "Australian Economic Outlook. Real GDP forecasts Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and Treasury. 2."— Presentation transcript:

1 Australian Economic Outlook

2 Real GDP forecasts Source: ABS cat. no and Treasury. 2

3 Revisions to IMF growth forecasts Note: Evolution of IMF forecasts for world growth (calendar year). Source: IMF WEO. 3

4 China and MTP growth contributions Note: MTP growth aggregated using Australia’s export shares. Source: ABS cat. no , IMF October 2014 World Economic Outlook and Treasury Percentagepoints China'scontribution to MTP growth Ex-China contribution to MTP growth Percentagepoints MTP growth

5 Mining investment Source: ABS cat. no , and Treasury. 5

6 Iron ore Export volumesSpot price 6 Note: Commercial-in-confidence Source: ABS cat. no , Platts and Treasury.

7 Terms of trade 7 Source: ABS cat. no and Treasury.

8 Non-resources GDP growth Contributions to real GDP growth Note: Assumes that mining investment has an import share of 50 per cent. Source: ABS cat. no and , BREE and Treasury Percentage points Net resources investmentResources exports Projections Forecasts Projections Resources

9 Housing market indicators Building approvals Source: ABS cat. no and Housing finance 9

10 Source: ABS , Westpac-Melbourne Institute and ANZ-Roy Morgan. Retail trade and consumer confidence Retail tradeConfidence measures 10

11 Non-mining investment indicators Note: Non-mining business conditions and confidence reflects the weights of non-mining sectors in the NAB survey. This is not necessarily the same as non-mining sectors share of GVA. Source: NAB Monthly Business Survey. Note: Estimates of CAPEX have been adjusted using long run realisation ratios. Source: ABS cat. no Conditions and confidence CAPEX 11

12 Labour market Source: ABS cat. no and

13 Exchange rate Source: RBA 13

14 Short term visitor arrivals Note :Trend data Source: ABS Cat. no

15 Estimated size of middle class by region Source: 'Kharas, H. and Gertz, G. (2010) The New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East and Centennial Group projections (2011) 15

16 Other slides

17 World outbound tourism (Resident departures by country of origin) Note: Figures for China include travel to Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Source: United Nations World Tourism Organisation 17

18 Projections of the global middle class by region Source: Kharas, H and Gertz G, 2010, ‘The New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East’ in C Li (ed), China’s Emerging Middle Class: Beyond Economic Transformation, Washington, DC, Brookings Institution Press North AmericaEuropeAsia PacificCentral and South AmericaAfrica and Middle East Billions (persons) 18

19 Top five merchandise exports to China Source: DFAT. 19

20 Resource investment – major projects Note: Treasury’s major resources projects profile is the sum of spending on existing and planned resources projects greater than $2 billion, weighted by their probability of going ahead. Source: Treasury. 20

21 Nominal GDP forecasts Source: ABS cat. no and Treasury. 21

22 Market inflation expectations 22 Note: Market inflation expectations are derived from inflation swaps. Expectations are not available for China. Source: Bloomberg

23 Inflation Source: ABS. cat. no

24 National income growth 24 Source: ABS Cat. No

25 Housing market indicators Source: RP Data CoreLogic. Prices growthCapital cities 25

26 Wages by industry Source: ABS Cat. no and Treasury. 26

27 Source: ABS cat. no and Treasury. Wages growth by mining/non-mining 27


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