1. The Territory’s Population, Economy and Labour Force: Trends and Challenges Professor Tony Barnes Dr Sarah Rummery Northern Territory Treasury and Charles Darwin University

2. Population Basics

3. Key population characteristics Source: ABS Cat nos 3101.0 and 4705.0 * ABS December qtr 2006 preliminary estimate

4. Age distribution of Territory and Australian populations Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS Cat no. 3201.0

5. Age distribution of Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, 2006 Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS Cat no. 3201.0

6. Highest level of school education completed (adult resident in the Northern Territory) ≤ Grade 9 ≥ Grade 10 Indigenous Territorians60 %40 % Non- Indigenous Territorians 11 %89 % Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing

7. Post ‑ School Qualifications of the Territory’s adult population, 2001 Source: ABS 2001 Census of Population and Housing

8. Percentage of population living in households of different sizes (occupied dwelling sin the Territory) Median household income range Indigenous households * $800 – 999 Other ‑ households$1000 ‑ 1399 Number of occupants in dwelling 1-23-56 or more Indigenous households *10%32%58% Other households 34%52%14% * Indigenous household: at least one resident is Indigenous Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing * Indigenous household: at least one resident is Indigenous Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing

9. Occupational distribution of Indigenous and non- Indigenous Territorians residing in Darwin

10. Northern Territory Economy

11. Territory and Australian Gross State Product (chain volume measure, annual percentage change) e: estimate; f: forecast Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS Cat. No. 5206.0, 5220.0

12. Industry Proportions of GSP and GDP, 2000-01 to 2005-06 Source: ABS Cat. No. 5220.0

13. Territory Employment and GSP proportions, 2001-02 to 2005-06 Source: ABS Cat. Nos. 5220.0, 6291.0.55.003

14. Territory Merchandise Exports by Major Group (moving annual total) e: estimate; f: forecast Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS data service 5432.0.65.001 * Other ‘includes; beverages and tobacco, manufactured goods, machinery and equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles

15. Territory Merchandise Export by Region of Destination and Commodity, 2001-02 to2005-06, five year average * excluding Japan ^ Other is primarily alumina and may also include; beverages and tobacco, manufactured goods, machinery and equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles. Source: ABS data service 5432.0.65.001

16. Territory Merchandise Imports by Major Group (moving annual total) e: estimate; f: forecast Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS data service 5432.0.65.001

17. Territory Merchandise Import by Region of Origin and Commodity, 2001-02 to 2005-06, five year average ^ Other ‘includes; beverages and tobacco, food and live animals, crude materials, chemicals and related products, animal and vegetable oils and unclassified commodities Source: ABS data service 5432.0.65.001

18. Employment and Labour Force

19. Territory Employment (level)

20. Unemployment Rate

21. Indigenous Employment (level) 2002 - 2006

22. Indigenous Unemployment rate 2002 - 2006

23. Indigenous Labour force participation rate 2002 -2006

24. Northern Territory Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders ‘not in the labour force’

25. Population change and consequences

26. Territory and Australian Population Growth 1981 – 2007 (number) Source: NT Treasury; ABS Catalogue no. 3101.0

27. Territory and Australian Population Growth 1981 – 2007 (rate) Footnotes: f - forecast Source: NT Treasury; ABS Catalogue no. 3101.0

28. Territory Population Growth by Component Source: ABS Catalogue no. 3101.0

29. Age Distribution of Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, 1995 and 2005 Source: ABS Catalogue no. 3201.0

30. Age Distribution of Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous Populations, 1996 - 2005 Source: ABS Cat no. 3201.0 and 3238.0

31. Summary measures of ageing, 1996 - 2005

32. Summary Measures of Ageing, 1996, 2005 and 2015

33. Annual Territory Interstate Migration Flows Source: ABS Cat no 3101.0

34. Interstate Migration Probabilities by Age

35. 2006 14000120001000080006000400020000 400060008000100001200014000 0~4 5~9 10~14 15~19 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60~64 65~69 70~74 75~79 80~84 85+ IndigenousNon-Indigenous no. Age Group 2001 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 1996 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 1991 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 1986 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 1981 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 1976 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 1971 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 35 years of changing Territory populations

36. Northern Territory Indigenous and non- Indigenous populations, 1971-2001

37. Changes to the Territory Indigenous and non- Indigenous populations, 1971-2001 Source: Condon JR, Barnes T, Cunningham J, Smith L. 2004. Demographic characteristics and trends of Northern Territory Indigenous population, 1996 to 2001. CRC for Aboriginal Health, Darwin.

38. Strategies for maintaining future Territory workforce A strategy to improve recruitment and retention of interstate and overseas migrants particularly in the 20-39 year age range A strategy to retain older working Territorians for longer in the local workforce rather than retiring A strategy for improving the education and skill levels of the Territory’s Indigenous population and as such improving their prospects of successfully entering the Territory workforce.