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System Flexibility Assessment for the Western Interconnection WRAG Meeting Dan Beckstead W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL.

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Presentation on theme: "System Flexibility Assessment for the Western Interconnection WRAG Meeting Dan Beckstead W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL."— Presentation transcript:

1 System Flexibility Assessment for the Western Interconnection WRAG Meeting Dan Beckstead W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

2 “Flexibility” Wide-spread production simulation modeling Results from past TEPPC studies… 2013 Plan - Recommendation 3: Assess Future Operational Flexibility 2 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

3 About the Study Need to understand power system flexibility needs under higher renewable penetration in planning timeframe – Stakeholder requests: Further integrate and expand planning tools WECC engaged E3 and NREL to study operational needs using E3’s Renewable Energy Flexibility Model (REFLEX) – Funding for E3 work from WECC and WIEB (through ARRA) – Funding for NREL work from DOE

4 Project Team Partnership between WECC, WIEB, NREL and E3 – WECC & WIEB provide project oversight and direction – E3 directs technical work – NREL provides data, HPC resources and technical support E3 NREL WECC WIEB Stakeholders

5 Stakeholder Input Technical Advisory Group provides input on data, methodologies and assumptions – Includes representatives of utilities, advocacy groups, National Labs, Northwest Power and Conservation Council, EPRI Executive Advisory Group helps ensure study’s relevance to Western decision-makers – Jim Robb (WECC), Mark Rothleder (CAISO), Rebecca Wagner (NVPUC), Doug Larson (WIEB), Kimberly Harris (PSE), Mike Hummel (SRP), Gregg Lemler (PG&E), Bill Gaines (TCPL), Stacey Kusters (NVE), Stephan Bird (PAC), Elliot Manzier (BPA), Tom Imbler (Xcel) Periodic reporting to WIEB/SPSC, TEPPC, and other WECC committees

6 Study Goals Assess the ability of the fleet of resources in the Western Interconnection to accommodate high renewable penetration while maintaining reliable operations Quantify the size, magnitude and duration of operating challenges resulting from high renewable penetration Investigate potential flexibility solutions, including: – Renewable curtailment as an operational strategy – Regional coordination – Diverse renewable portfolio – Flexible supply and demand-side resources – Transmission – Energy storage Learn about how to do flexibility modeling and planning “Institutional” solutions “Physical” solutions

7 Cases Studied 2024 Common Case – Few reliability or flexibility issues anticipated – Primary purpose of case is calibration 2024 High Renewables Case(s) – Want to study a case with renewable penetration that is high enough to show interesting operational challenges – Composition of case TBD in consultation with technical and executive groups – Sensitivities to understand how composition of case affects flexibility challenges Alternative levels of wind, solar, & baseload renewables

8 Flexibility Study Sequence 1.Identify flexibility constraints under conservative assumptions – Demonstrate the magnitude and frequency of potential flexibility violations under the worst case 2.Relax constraints and demonstrate the efficacy of solutions that are available in the absence of investment – Renewable curtailment, flexible ties, increase ramp rates, decrease Pmin 3.Additional studies, depending on time and resources, exploring the benefits of investments in power system flexibility – Transmission, flexible generation & loads, energy storage

9 Regional Approach Regional studies are appropriate at this stage in analysis of flexibility adequacy Study will begin by considering five WECC “subregions” Most subregions share characteristics appropriate for a resource planning study:

10 10 PLEXOS on NREL’s HPC Peregrine Characteristics: Intel Xeon E "SandyBridge" cores next-generation Intel Xeon "Ivy Bridge" core 576 Intel Phi Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC) core co-processors with 60+ cores each 32 GB DDR3 1600Mhz memory per node Peregrine will deliver a peak performance of 1 petaFLOPS NREL PIX Domain Decomposition PCM Solution Analysis Partitioning PCM Solution Reassembly PLEXOS

11 11 Wind Data Sets Power Data Set: Power output at 126,000 sites Onshore and Offshore for CONUS 2 km by 2 km spatial resolution 5 minute temporal resolution Years: Meteorological Data Set Wind speed and direction Temperature Atmospheric Pressure Forecast Data Set Day-ahead forecasts 6 hour-ahead forecasts 4 hour-ahead forecasts 1 hour-ahead forecasts

12 Schedule 12 W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL  Jul 2014: Project kickoff  Aug 2014: Common case review complete  Sep 2014: First technical and executive group meeting  Oct 2014: RECAP analysis of Common Case complete  Nov 2014: RECAP analysis of High Renewables Case  Feb 2015: REFLEX analysis of Common Case  Apr 2015: REFLEX analysis of High Renewables Case  May 2015: Final report X X X X X

13 13 WECC Flexibility Assessment – Distinguishing Characteristics The use of REFLEX for PLEXOS in this study is different from traditional production cost modeling of the WECC in several important respects: 1.Economic tradeoff between upward (loss of load) and downward (curtailment) flexibility violations 2.Endogenous determination of reserves provision 3.Stochastic sampling of load, wind, and solar days 4.Stochastic sampling of wide range of hydro conditions 5.Subregional study footprints with specified boundary conditions

14 14 Flexibility and Economics Renewable integration can be framed as an economic operating decision Flexibility violations in upward and downward directions are substitutes for one another Upward ramping shortages can be solved using renewable curtailment Limited Ramping Capability Unserved Energy Limited Ramping Capability Renewable Curtailment Strategy to Minimize Downward ViolationsStrategy to Minimize Upward Violations

15 15 Flexibility Metrics Flexibility violations occur when the power system cannot meet all changes in net load over all time scales REFLEX reports two categories of flexibility violations: EUE: Expected Unserved Energy EOG: Expected Overgeneration, aka renewable curtailment Hourly and within-hour timescales Economic parameters are also required: VUE: Value of Unserved Energy $2,000–50,000/MWh based on value of lost load VOG: Value of Overgeneration $30-150/MWh based on replacement cost of renewable energy REFLEX also reports production costs & CO2 emissions

16 16 Stochastic Sampling of Load, Wind, and Solar For reliability analysis, must simulate operations over a wide range of system conditions (including tails of distributions) Challenge: maintain correlations between stochastic processes Option 1. Use several years of time synchronous load, wind, and solar data (usually not available) Option 2. Bin available data according to historical correlations and create composite days by mixing and matching non-synchronous load, wind, and solar profiles Study will incorporate NREL’s best available wind & solar simulations and historical WECC load data

17 17 Example Day Draw: High Load Weekday in August

18 18 Example Draw: High Load Weekday in August Within each bin, choose each (load, wind, and solar) daily profile randomly, and independent of other daily profiles 24 hour spin-up and spin-down periods included in the optimization

19 19 5. Subregional Study Footprints with Boundary Conditions Transmission planning studies rely on least-cost dispatch of generation fleet across entire WECC footprint Necessary for studying interregional transmission flows In reality, the Western grid does not operate as a centrally cleared, optimized market Hurdle rates are used to simulate the friction that exists between regions Nonetheless, backcasting exercises often result in simulated interregional transfers that do not align with historical flows A WECC-wide model may mask flexibility challenges that could arise in a particular region

20 20 Geographic Footprint – Flexibility Assessment Flexibility assessment examines five subregions independently to evaluate constraints on generation fleets in different parts of the WECC Boundary conditions for each subregion are specified exogenously based on historical path flows The subregional framework allows the study to control the regional exchange of both energy and variability Framework allows assessment of: 1.Flexibility of a regional fleet of generators 2.Value of increased intertie flexibility

21 21 Flexibility Study: Data to be Utilized Wind o WIND Toolkit 2007 – 2012, 5 min resolution Solar o WWSIS Solar Data 2005, 2006 – 1 min resolution o SIND Data? Load o WECC 2024 Common Case

22 22 Regional Breakdown, 2024 Common Case Renewable penetrations in 2024 Common Case reflect compliance with current state RPS policy goals Penetration of renewable generation in the 2024 Common Case is 19% of load (WECC-US)

23 Questions Dan Beckstead Transmission Expansion Planning Western Electricity Coordinating Council Office: (801) W ESTERN E LECTRICITY C OORDINATING C OUNCIL

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