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THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM Version 2 Implementation Date: 22 Feb 2011 THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER NCEP/NWS/NOAA.

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Presentation on theme: "THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM Version 2 Implementation Date: 22 Feb 2011 THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER NCEP/NWS/NOAA."— Presentation transcript:

1 THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM Version 2 Implementation Date: 22 Feb 2011 THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER NCEP/NWS/NOAA

2 TECHNICAL INFORMATION NOTICE: EFFECTIVE FEBRUARY 22, BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN...THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM /CFS/. _____________________________________________________________________________ ALL COMPONENTS OF THE CFS, THE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL, OCEAN MODEL, LAND-SURFACE MODEL, AND DATA ASSIMILATION, WILL BE UPGRADED AS PART OF THIS CHANGE. PLEASE NOTE THAT RUNNING THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL CFS VERSION WILL BE CONTINUE TILL JUNE 28, 2011 TO ALLOW USERS TO TRANSITION THEIR PROCESSING TO THE NEW CFS VERSION 2. NCEP ENCOURAGES ALL USERS TO ENSURE THAT THEY UPGRADE THEIR PROCESS OF OBTAINING CFS DATA, AS THERE WILL BE MAJOR CHANGES IN CONTENT, FORMAT AND VOLUME OF DATA WITH THIS UPGRADE.

3 TECHNICAL INFORMATION NOTICE (CONTD): EFFECTIVE FEBRUARY 22, BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN...THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM /CFS/. _____________________________________________________________________________ A 3-LAYER INTERACTIVE GLOBAL SEA ICE MODEL, AS WELL AS A GLOBAL LAND DATA ASSIMILATION WILL BE INTRODUCED. THE RESOLUTION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC FORECAST MODEL WILL BE INCREASED FROM T62 /210 KM/ TO T126 /100 KM/. THE OCEAN FORECAST MODEL WILL BE UPGRDADED FROM THE LIMITED AREA GFDL MOM3 TO THE GLOBAL MOM4. THE HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION WILL INCREASE FROM 0.33 DEGREE TO 0.25 DEGREE FROM 10 NORTH TO 10 SOUTH LATITUDES. NORTHWARDS AND SOUTHWARDS TO THE POLES, THE RESOLUTION WILL INCREASE FROM 1 DEGREE TO 0.5 DEGREE GLOBALLY. THE LAND SURFACE MODEL WILL BE UPGRADED FROM 2-LEVEL OSU MODEL TO 4- LEVEL NOAH LAND MODEL.

4 TECHNICAL INFORMATION NOTICE (CONTD): EFFECTIVE FEBRUARY 22, BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN...THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM /CFS/. _____________________________________________________________________________ THE DATA ASSIMILATION FOR THE CLIMATE FORECAST MODEL WILL ALSO BE UPGRADED. THE RESOLUTION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC CLIMATE DATA ASSIMILATION VERSION 2/CDAS2/ WILL BE UPGRADED FROM T62/210 KM/ WITH 28 SIGMA LEVELS TO T574 /27KM/ WITH 64 HYBRID SIGMA-PRESSURE LEVELS. THE SPECTRAL STATISTICAL INTERPOLATION SCHEME /SSI/ WILL CHANGE TO A GRIDPOINT STATISTICAL INTERPOLATION SCHEME /GSI/. SATELLITE RADIANCES WILL BE DIRECTLY ASSIMILATED INSTEAD OF RETRIEVALS. THE GLOBAL OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION /GODAS/ WILL ALSO BE UPGRADED FROM MOM3 TO MOM4. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE A NEW GLOBAL LAND DATA ASSIMILATION /GLDAS/ WHICH WILL USE OBSERVED CPC PRECIPITATION AS FORCING FOR THE NOAH LAND MODEL. THE DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEMS FOR CURRENT OPERATIONS /CFSV1/ R2/GODAS/WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON JUNE 28, 2011.

5 TECHNICAL INFORMATION NOTICE (CONTD): EFFECTIVE FEBRUARY BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN...THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM /CFS/. _____________________________________________________________________________ THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONS TO PARAMETERS IN THE PRESSURE GRIB /PGRB/, FLUX FILES /FLX/ AND OCEAN /OCN/ FILES. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE A NEW FILE THAT CONTAINS PARAMETERS ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES /IPV/. DUE TO THE INCREASES IN RESOLUTION, THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORMAT AND CONTENT OF ALL THESE FILES. THE HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION OF PGRB FILES WILL INCREASE FROM 2.5 X 2.5 DEGREE TO 1 X 1 DEGREE AND THE NUMBER OF PRESSURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE FROM 17 TO 37. THE SIZE OF THE FLUX FILE WILL INCREASE FROM THE GAUSSIAN GRID FOR T62 (192X94) TO THAT FOR T126 (384X190). THE OCEAN FILE WILL INCREASE FROM 2.5 X 2.5 DEGREE TO 0.5 X 0.5 DEGREE THE NEW ISENTROPIC FILE WILL HAVE A RESOLUTION OF 1 X 1 DEGREE. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN THE TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF THE OUTPUT FORECAST DATA, FROM 12-HOURLY TO 6-HOURLY.

6 TECHNICAL INFORMATION NOTICE (CONTD): EFFECTIVE FEBRUARY BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN...THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM /CFS/. _____________________________________________________________________________ ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE THE DISCONTINUANCE OF ALL SEASONAL PRODUCTS, BOTH FOR THE REAL TIME FORECASTS AND CLIMATOLOGIES. ONLY MONTHLY MEAN PRODUCTS WILL BE DISSEMINATED FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE CFSV2 UPGRADE, PLEASE VISIT THE CFS WEBSITE AT:

7 TECHNICAL INFORMATION NOTICE (CONTD): EFFECTIVE FEBRUARY 22, BEGINNING WITH THE 1200 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/ RUN...THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION /NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM /CFS/. _____________________________________________________________________________ CFSV2 SAMPLE DATA FROM : A.ONE FULL ANALYSIS CYCLE B.ONE FULL 9-MONTH FORECAST ( MONTHLY MEANS AND 6-HOURLY DATA FOR THE FIRST 6 MONTHS OF INTEGRATION ) C.ONE FULL 45-DAY FORECAST ( 6-HOURLY TIMESERIES OF 82 SELECTED VARIABLES AND 6-HOURLY DATA FOR FULL INTERGRATION ) D.ONE FULL FIRST SEASON FORECAST ( MONTHLY MEANS, 6-HOURLY TIMESERIES OF 82 SELECTED VARIABLES AND 6-HOURLY DATA FOR FULL INTERGRATION) WILL BE PLACED AT THE CFS WEBSITE FOR PUBLIC USE.

8 THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM Version 2 Paper Suranjana Saha, Shrinivas Moorthi, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, Hua-Lu Pan, David Behringer, Yu- Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Mark Iredell, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Rongqian Yang, 2011 : The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. To be submitted to the Journal of Climate.

9 For a new Climate Forecast System (CFS) implementation Two essential components: A new Reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, seaice and land over the 32-year period ( ) is required to provide consistent initial conditions for: A complete Reforecast of the new CFS over the 29-year period ( ), in order to provide stable calibration and skill estimates of the new system, for operational seasonal prediction at NCEP

10 For a new CFS implementation (contd) 1.An atmosphere at high horizontal resolution (spectral T574, ~27 km) and high vertical resolution (64 sigma-pressure hybrid levels) for the real time analysis 2.An atmosphere of T126L64 for the real time forecasts 3.An interactive ocean with 40 levels in the vertical, to a depth of 4737 m, and horizontal resolution of 0.25 degree at the tropics, tapering to a global resolution of 0.5 degree northwards and southwards of 10N and 10S respectively 4.An interactive 3 layer sea-ice model 5.An interactive land model with 4 soil levels

11 12Z GSI18Z GSI0Z GSI 9-hr coupled T382L64 forecast guess (GFS + MOM4 + Noah) 12Z GODAS 0Z GLDAS 6Z GSI 18Z GODAS0Z GODAS6Z GODAS ONE DAY OF REAL TIME ANALYSIS

12 Reforecast Configuration for CFSv2 (T126L64) 9-month hindcasts initiated from every 5 th day and run from all 4 cycles of that day, beginning from Jan 1 of each year, over a 29 year period from This is required to calibrate the operational CPC longer-term seasonal predictions (ENSO, etc) In addition, a single 1 season (123-day) hindcast run, initiated from every 0 UTC cycle between these five days, over the 12 year period from This is required to calibrate the operational CPC first season predictions for hydrological forecasts (precip, evaporation, runoff, streamflow, etc) In addition, three 45-day (1-month) hindcast runs from every 6, 12 and 18 UTC cycles, over the 12-year period from This is required for the operational CPC week3- week6 predictions of tropical circulations (MJO, PNA, etc) Jan month run 1 season run45 day run Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan

13 Operational Configuration for CFSv2 real time forecasts (T126L64) There will be 4 control runs per day from the 0, 6, 12 and 18 UTC cycles of the CFS real-time data assimilation system, out to 9 months. In addition to the control run of 9 months at the 0 UTC cycle, there will be 3 additional runs, out to one season. These 3 runs per cycle will be initialized as in current operations. In addition to the control run of 9 months at the 6, 12 and 18 UTC cycles, there will be 3 additional runs, out to 45 days. These 3 runs per cycle will be initialized as in current operations. There will be a total of 16 CFS runs every day, of which 4 runs will go out to 9 months, 3 runs will go out to 1 season and 9 runs will go out to 45 days. 0 UTC6 UTC18 UTC12 UTC 9 month run (4) 1 season run (3)45 day run (9)

14 CFSv2 OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION PERTURBATION OF Members 2, 3 and 4 at each cycle 0 Z G D A S Dy A0 6Z M2Dy0 00Z= 0.85xA xA-1 M3Dy0 00Z = A0 + M1Dy-1 – M2Dy-1 M4Dy0 00Z = A0 – M1Dy-1 + M2Dy-1 M1Dy0 00Z dy0 9mth control M4Dy-3 00Z = A-2 – M1Dy-3 + M2Dy-3 0 Z G D A S Dy A-2 6Z M2Dy-2 00Z= 0.85xA xA-3 M3Dy-2 00Z = A-2 + M1Dy-3 – M2Dy-3 M1Dy-2 00Z dy-1 9mth control M4Dy-1 00Z = A-1 – M1Dy-2 + M2Dy-2 0 Z G D A S Dy A-1 6Z M2Dy-1 00Z= 0.85xA xA-2 M3Dy-1 00Z = A-1 + M1Dy-2 – M2Dy-2 M1Dy-1 00Z dy-1 9mth control

15 DATA DESCRIPTION

16 LEVEL 1 DATA : 5 TYPES OF FILES CREATED EVERY 6 HRS File Grid Description FLXF T126(384x190 Gaussian)Surface, radiative fluxes, etc. PGBF 1 degree 3-D Pressure level data OCNH 0.5 degree 3-D Ocean data OCNF 1 degree3-D Ocean data IPVF 1 degree 3-D Isentropic level data

17 37 Pressure (hPa) Levels: pgb (atmosphere) Levels (depth in meters): ocn (ocean) Isentropic Levels (K): ipv

18 CONTENTS OF IPV FILES LAPRtht 16 ** (profile) Lapse rate [K/m] MNTSFtht 16 ** (profile) Montgomery stream function [m^2/s^2] PRESsfc 0 ** (surface) Pressure [Pa] PVORTtht 16 ** (profile) Pot. vorticity [km^2/kg/s] RHtht 16 ** (profile) Relative humidity [%] TMPsfc 0 ** (surface) Temp. [K] TMPtht 16 ** (profile) Temp. [K] UGRDtht 16 ** (profile) u wind [m/s] VGRDtht 16 ** (profile) v wind [m/s] VVELtht 16 ** (profile) Pressure vertical velocity [Pa/s]

19 CONTENTS OF PGB FILE (524 Variables) ABSVprs37 ** (profile) Absolute vorticity [/s] CLWMRprs32 ** (profile) Cloud water [kg/kg] GPAprs2 ** (profile) Geopotential height anomaly [gpm] HGTprs37 ** (profile) Geopotential height [gpm] O3MRprs37 ** (profile) Ozone mixing ratio [kg/kg] RHprs 37 ** (profile) Relative humidity [%] SPFHprs37 ** (profile) Specific humidity [kg/kg] STRMprs37 ** (profile) Stream function [m^2/s] TMPprs37 ** (profile) Temp. [K] UGRDprs37 ** (profile) u wind [m/s] VGRDprs37 ** (profile) v wind [m/s] VPOTprs37 ** (profile) Velocity potential [m^2/s] VVELprs37 ** (profile) Pressure vertical velocity [Pa/s] PRESmsl 0 ** mean-sea level Pressure [Pa] AND MANY MORE……..

20 CONTENTS OF OCEAN FILE (222 Variables) POTdsl40 levels (profile) Potential temp. [K] SALTYdsl40 levels (profile) Salinity [kg/kg] UOGRDdsl40 levels (profile) u of current [m/s] VOGRDdsl 40 levels (profile) v of current [m/s] DZDTdsl40 levels (profile) Geometric vertical velocity [m/s] DBSSt2p5c2.5C isotherm Geometric Depth Below Sea Surface [m] DBSSt5c5C isotherm Geometric Depth Below Sea Surface [m] DBSSt10c10C isotherm Geometric Depth Below Sea Surface [m] DBSSt15c15C isotherm Geometric Depth Below Sea Surface [m] DBSSt20c20C isotherm Geometric Depth Below Sea Surface [m] DBSSt25c25C isotherm Geometric Depth Below Sea Surface [m] DBSSt28c28C isotherm Geometric Depth Below Sea Surface [m] DBSSbmxlMixed layer Geometric Depth Below Sea Surface [m] DBSSbitlIsothermal layer Geometric Depth Below Sea Surface [m] EMNPsfcEvaporation - Precipitation [cm/day] ICECsfc Ice concentration (ice=1;no ice=0) [fraction] ICETKsfc Ice thickness [m] OHC0_300m m under water Ocean Heat Content [J/m^2] SNODsfc Snow depth [m] SSHGsfc Sea Surface Height Relative to Geoid [m] TCHPl239 Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential [J/m^2] THFLXsfc Total downward heat flux at surface [W/m^2] TMPsfc Surface Temp. [K] UFLXsfc Zonal momentum flux [N/m^2] VFLXsfc Meridional momentum flux [N/m^2] UICEsfc u of ice drift [m/s] VICEsfc v of ice drift [m/s]

21 CONTENTS OF FLX FILE (103 Variables) RADIATIVE FLUXES CDUVBsfcsurface Clear Sky UV-B Downward Solar Flux [W/m^2] DUVBsfcsurface UV-B Downward Solar Flux [W/m^2] CSDLFsfcsurface Clear sky downward long wave flux [W/m^2] CSDSFsfcsurface Clear sky downward solar flux [W/m^2] CSULFsfcsurface Clear sky upward long wave flux [W/m^2] CSULFtoatop of atmos Clear sky upward long wave flux [W/m^2] CSUSFsfcsurface Clear sky upward solar flux [W/m^2] CSUSFtoatop of atmos Clear sky upward solar flux [W/m^2] NBDSFsfcsurface Near IR beam downward solar flux [W/m^2] NDDSFsfcsurface Near IR diffuse downward solar flux [W/m^2] VBDSFsfcsurface Visible beam downward solar flux [W/m^2] VDDSFsfcsurface Visible diffuse downward solar flux [W/m^2] DLWRFsfcsurface Downward long wave flux [W/m^2] DSWRFsfcsurface Downward short wave flux [W/m^2] DSWRFtoatop of atmos Downward short wave flux [W/m^2] LHTFLsfcsurface Latent heat flux [W/m^2] SHTFLsfcsurface Sensible heat flux [W/m^2] ULWRFsfcsurface Upward long wave flux [W/m^2] ULWRFtoatop of atmos Upward long wave flux [W/m^2] USWRFsfcsurface Upward short wave flux [W/m^2] USWRFtoatop of atmos Upward short wave flux [W/m^2]

22 CONTENTS OF FLX FILE (103 Variables) LAND SURFACE VARIABLES CNWATsfcsurface Plant canopy surface water [kg/m^2] EVBSsfcsurface Direct evaporation from bare soil [W/m^2] EVCWsfcsurface Canopy water evaporation [W/m^2] SBSNOsfcsurface Sublimation (evaporation from snow) [W/m^2] SFCRsfc surface Surface roughness [m] SFEXCsfcsurface Exchange coefficient [(kg/m^3)(m/s)] SLTYPsfcsurface Surface slope type [Index] SNODsfc surface Snow depth [m] SNOHFsfcsurface Snow phase-change heat flux [W/m^2] SNOWCsfcsurface Snow cover [%] GFLUXsfcsurface Ground heat flux [W/m^2] SOTYPsfcsurface Soil type (Zobler) [0..9] SRWEQsfcsurface Snowfall rate water equiv. [kg/m^2/s] SSRUNsfcsurface Storm surface runoff [kg/m^2] PEVPRsfcsurface Potential evaporation rate [W/m^2] TRANSsfcsurface Transpiration [W/m^2] VEGsfcsurface Vegetation [%] VGTYPsfcsurface Vegetation type (as in SiB) [0..13] WATRsfc surface Water runoff [kg/m^2] WEASDsfcsurface Accum. snow [kg/m^2]

23 CONTENTS OF FLX FILE (103 Variables) LAND SURFACE VARIABLES (contd) TMP _ 10cm0-10 cm underground Temp. [K] TMP10 _ 40cm10-40 cm underground Temp. [K] TMP40 _ 100cm cm underground Temp. [K] TMP100 _ 200cm cm underground Temp. [K] SOILL0 _ 10cm0-10 cm underground Liquid volumetric soil moisture (non-frozen) SOILL10 _ 40cm10-40 cm underground Liquid volumetric soil moisture (non-frozen) SOILL40 _ 100cm cm underground Liquid volumetric soil moisture (non-frozen) SOILL100 _ 200cm cm underground Liquid volumetric soil moisture (non-frozen) SOILM0 _ 200cm0-200 cm underground Soil moisture content [kg/m^2] SOILW0 _ 10cm0-10 cm underground Volumetric soil moisture [fraction] SOILW10 _ 40cm10-40 cm underground Volumetric soil moisture [fraction] SOILW40 _ 100cm cm underground Volumetric soil moisture [fraction] SOILW100 _ 200cm cm underground Volumetric soil moisture [fraction]

24 CONTENT S OF FLX FILE (103 Variables) RAIN AND CLOUDS CRAINsfcsurface Categorical rain [yes=1;no=0] CWORKclmatmos column Cloud work function [J/kg] CPRATsfcsurface Convective precip. rate [kg/m^2/s] PRATEsfcsurface Precipitation rate [kg/m^2/s] PRESlcblow cloud base Pressure [Pa] PRESlctlow cloud top Pressure [Pa] PRESmcbmid-cloud base Pressure [Pa] PRESmctmid-cloud top Pressure [Pa] PREShcbhigh cloud base Pressure [Pa] PREShcthigh cloud top Pressure [Pa] PREScvbconvective cld base Pressure [Pa] PREScvtconvective cld top Pressure [Pa] TCDCclmatmos column Total cloud cover [%] TCDCbclboundary cld layer Total cloud cover [%] TCDClcllow cloud level Total cloud cover [%] TCDCmclmid-cloud level Total cloud cover [%] TCDChclhigh cloud level Total cloud cover [%] TCDCcvlconvective cld layer Total cloud cover [%] TMPlctlow cloud top Temp. [K] TMPmctmid-cloud top Temp. [K] TMPhcthigh cloud top Temp. [K]

25 CONTENTS OF FLX FILE (103 Variables) TEMPERATURE, MOISTURE AND WINDS TMAX2m2 m above ground Max. temp. [K] TMIN2m2 m above ground Min. temp. [K] TMPsfcsurface Temp. [K] TMP2m 2 m above ground Temp. [K] TMPhlev1hybrid level 1 Temp. [K] PWATclmatmos column Precipitable water [kg/m^2] QMAX2m2 m above ground Maximum specific humidity at 2m QMIN2m2 m above ground Minimum specific humidity at 2m SPFH2m2 m above ground Specific humidity [kg/kg] SPFHhlev1hybrid level 1 Specific humidity [kg/kg] UGWDsfcsurface Zonal gravity wave stress [N/m^2] VGWDsfcsurface Meridional gravity wave stress [N/m^2] UFLXsfcsurface Zonal momentum flux [N/m^2] VFLXsfcsurface Meridional momentum flux [N/m^2] UGRD10m10 m above ground u wind [m/s] VGRD10m10 m above ground v wind [m/s] UGRDhlev1hybrid level 1 u wind [m/s] VGRDhlev1hybrid level 1 v wind [m/s]

26 CONTENTS OF FLX FILE (103 Variables) AND THE REST…… ICECsfcsurface Ice concentration (ice=1;no ice=0) [fraction] ICETKsfcsurface Ice thickness [m] LANDsfcsurface Land cover (land=1;sea=0) [fraction] ACONDsfcsurface Aerodynamic conductance [m/s] ALBDOsfcsurface Albedo [%] FRICVsfcsurface Friction velocity [m/s] HGTsfcsurface Geopotential height [gpm] HGThlev1hybrid level 1 Geopotential height [gpm] HPBLsfcsurface Planetary boundary layer height [m] PRESsfcsurface Pressure [Pa]

27 LEVEL 2 DATA : MONTHLY MEANS OF THE 5 TYPES OF FILES CREATED EVERY 6 HRS (00Z,06Z,12Z, 18Z and daily averages for each month) File Grid Description FLXF T126(384x190 Gaussian)Surface, radiative fluxes, etc. PGBF 1 degree 3-D Pressure level data OCNH 0.5 degree 3-D Ocean data OCNF 1 degree3-D Ocean data IPVF 1 degree 3-D Isentropic level data

28 LEVEL 3 DATA : 6 HOURLY TIMESERIES OF 98 SELECTED VARIABLES File Grid Number FLXF T126(384x190 Gaussian)39 PGBF 1 degree 35 OCNH 0.5 degree 21 IPVF 1 degree 3

29 6-Hourly Timeseries of 98 parameters : FLX file (39) 1.LHTFL (latent heat flux) : averaged 2.SHTFL (sensible heat flx) : averaged 3.UFLX (u-stress) : averaged 4.VFLX (v-stress) : averaged 5.PRATE (precipitation rate) : averaged 6.PRESSFC (Surface pressure) : instantaneous 7.PWAT (Precipitable Water) : instantaneous 8.TMP2M (2m air temperature) : instantaneous 9.TMPSFC (surface temperature) : instantaneous 10.TMPHY1 (temperature at hybrid level 1) : instantaneous 11.PEVPR (potential evaporation rate) : averaged 12.U10M (u at 10m) : instantaneous 13.V10M (v at 10m) : instantaneous 14.DLWSFC (Downward LW at the surface) : averaged 15.DSWSFC (Downward SW at the surface) : averaged 16.ULWSFC (Upward LW at the surface) : averaged 17.ULWTOA (Upward LW at the top) : averaged 18.USWSFC (Upward SW at the surface) : averaged 19.USWTOA (Upward SW at the top) : averaged 20.SOILM1 (Soil Moisture Level 1) : instantaneous 21.SOILM2 (Soil Moisture Level 2) : instantaneous 22.SOILM3 (Soil Moisture Level 3) : instantaneous 23.SOILM4 (Soil Moisture Level 4) : instantaneous 24.SOILT1 (Soil Temperature Level 1) : instantaneous 25.GFLUX (Ground Heat Flux) : averaged 26.WEASD (Snow Water Equivalent) : instantaneous 27.RUNOFF (Ground Runoff) : accumulation 28.ICECON (Ice concentation) 29.ICETHK (Ice Thickness) 30.Q2M (2m Specific Humidity) 31.TMIN (Minimum 2m air temperature) 32.TMAX (Maximum 2m air temperature)

30 6-Hourly Timeseries of 98 parameters (contd): FLX file (39) 33.CPRAT (convective precipitation rate) : averaged 34.CSDLF (clear sky downward long wave flux) : 35.CSUSF (clear sky upward solar flux) : 36.NDDSF (Near IR diffuse downward solar flux) : 37.SRWEQ (snowfall rate water equivalent) : averaged 38.TCDCCLM (total cloud cover atmospheric column) : averaged 39.VDDSF (visible diffuse downward solar flux) :

31 6-Hourly Timeseries of 98 parameters (contd) : PGB file (35) 1. Z200 (Geopotential at 200 hPa) 2.Z500 (Geopotential at 500 hPa) 3.Z700 (Geopotential at 700 hPa) 4.Z850 (Geopotential at 850 hPa) 5.Z1000 (Geopotential at 1000 hPa) 6.T2 (Temperature at 2 hPa) 7.T50 (Temperature at 50 hPa) 8.T200 (Temperature at 200 hPa) 9.T250 (Temperature at 250 hPa) 10.T500 (Temperature at 500 hPa) 11.T700 (Temperature at 700 hPa) 12.T850 (Temperature at 850 hPa) 13.T1000 (Temperature at 1000 hPa) 14.WND200 (Zonal (u ) and Meridional: (v) Wind at 200 hPa) 15.WND250 (Zonal (u ) and Meridional: (v) Wind at 250 hPa) 16.WND500 (Zonal (u ) and Meridional: (v) Wind at 500 hPa) 17.WND700 (Zonal (u ) and Meridional: (v) Wind at 700 hPa) 18.WND850 (Zonal (u ) and Meridional: (v) Wind at 850 hPa) 19.WND1000 (Zonal (u ) and Meridional: (v) Wind at 1000 hPa) 20.PSI200 (Streamfunction at 200 hPa) 21.PSI850 (Streamfunction at 850 hPa) 22.CHI200 (Velocity Potential at 200 hPa) 23.CHI850 (Velocity Potential at 200 hPa) 24.VVEL500 (Vertical Velocity at 500 hPa) 25.Q500 (Specific Humidity at 500 hPa) 26.Q700 (Specific Humidity at 700 hPa) 27.Q850 (Specific Humidity at 850 hPa) 28.Q925 (Specific Humidity at 925 hPa) 29.PRMSL (Mean Sea Level Pressure)

32 6-Hourly Timeseries of 98 parameters (contd) : IPV file (3) 1.IPV450 (Potential Vorticty at 450 K Isentropic Level) 2.IPV550 (Potential Vorticty at 550 K Isentropic Level) 3.IPV650 (Potential Vorticty at 650 K Isentropic Level) 6-Hourly Timeseries of 98 parameters (contd) : OCNH file (21) 1.OCNDT2.5C (Depth of 2.5C Isotherm) 2.OCNDT5C (Depth of 5C Isotherm) 3.OCNDT10C (Depth of 10C Isotherm) 4.OCNDT15C (Depth of 15C Isotherm) 5.OCNDT20C (Depth of 20C Isotherm) 6.OCNDT25C (Depth of 25C Isotherm) 7.OCNDT28C (Depth of 28C Isotherm) 8.OCNHEAT (Ocean Heat Content) 9.OCNSLH (Sea Level Height) 10.OCNSST (Ocean Potential Temperature at depth of 5m) 11.OCNU5 (Ocean Zonal Current at depth of 5m) 12.OCNV5 (Ocean Meridional Current at depth of 5m) 13.OCNSAL5 (Ocean Salinity at depth of 5m) 14.OCNU15 (Ocean Zonal Current at depth of 15m) 15.OCNV15 (Ocean Meridional Current at depth of 15m) 16.OCNT15 (Ocean Potential Temperature at depth of 15m) 17.OCNSAL15 (Ocean Salinity at depth of 15m) 18.OCNVV55 (Ocean vertical velocity at depth of 55 m) 19.OCNMLD (Ocean Mixed Layer Depth) 20.OCNSILD (Ocean Surface Isothermal Layer Depth) 21.OCNTCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential)

33 DAILY CLIMATOLOGIES CFS Retrospective Forecast Daily Climatology Åke Johansson, Catherine Thiaw and Suranjana Saha Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA Methodology The problem at hand is to extract, for each variable, at each grid point and at each forecast lead time, an estimate of the true climatological annual cycle from 11 years of 4 times daily data, which is given every day of the year. At each calendar date, the straight average value, determined from the available 11 values, is in general composed of the following components: The true climatological annual cycle Meteorological noise Climatological noise (Low-frequency meteorological noise, i.e., variability on time scales comparable with, and longer than, the 11-yrs considered here.) Model noise

34 DAILY CLIMATOLOGIES (continued) The extraction of (i) is done here by fitting, through the method of least squares, the annual cycle of the raw average values to a truncated Fourier series with sine and cosine as basis functions. There is no a priori reason why the climatological annual cycle should necessarily be best represented by a low-order Fourier series. However, previous studies, such as the ones by Trenberth (1985), Epstein (1988) and Schemm et al. (1998), have shown that this method gives reasonable results. The method requires a decision on truncation, i.e., how many Fourier components should be included to give optimum results. Using too few components – underfitting – implies that part of the true climatological annual cycle is not included in the estimate, while on the other hand using too many components – overfitting – means that part of the noise is included in the estimate. In accordance with the experience and practice at NCEP (Schemm et al. 1998), a truncation at wave number 4 is used for all variables at all locations and at all forecast lead times. Note that no smoothing or filtering in the spatial domain is performed. The rationale being that many variables have quite localized geographical characteristics

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41 WHAT CLIMOS ARE BEING PREPARED ANALYSIS:CFSR, GODASv2, CMAP, ¼ o OISST, GHCN_CAMS LEVEL-1 DATA:NONE (RAW 6-HOURLY DATA) LEVEL-2 DATA:MONTHLY MEANS FOR ALL 5 TYPES (PGB, FLX, OCNH, OCNF, IPV) ONLY FOR THE 9-MONTH RUNS TWO CLIMOS: (FULL PERIOD) (AMSU PERIOD) LEVEL-3 DATA:DAILY CLIMOS FOR EACH CYCLE ONLY FOR 45-DAY RUNS. 88 SELECTED VARIABLES (AMSU PERIOD)


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