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Climate to Fish to Fishers: Coupled Model Development Kate Hedstrom, ARSC/UAF September, 2010.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate to Fish to Fishers: Coupled Model Development Kate Hedstrom, ARSC/UAF September, 2010."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate to Fish to Fishers: Coupled Model Development Kate Hedstrom, ARSC/UAF September, 2010

2 I am not alone! Enrique Curchitser, RutgersEnrique Curchitser, Rutgers Kenny Rose, LSUKenny Rose, LSU Jerome Fiechter, UCSCJerome Fiechter, UCSC Alan Haynie, NOAA-AFSCAlan Haynie, NOAA-AFSC Jon Wolfe, Brian Kaufmann, NCARJon Wolfe, Brian Kaufmann, NCAR Seth Danielson, UAFSeth Danielson, UAF NSF funding via CAMEO, Multi- scale modelingNSF funding via CAMEO, Multi- scale modeling ARSCARSC

3 Outline Overall goalsOverall goals Coupled modelsCoupled models –ROMS –NEMURO –Climate –Fish –Fishing fleet How are we doing?How are we doing?

4 Early 1970’s Mid1970’s 1980’s Changes in species composition in small mesh bottom trawls in Pavlof Bay. Rev. Aquat. Sci. (1992)

5 Pacific Decadal Oscillation “warm phase”“cool phase” From Nate Mantua

6 Regime shift and PDO From Nate Mantua

7 The state of the fisheries

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9 Another way of looking at it

10 It is not a joke

11 Changes in Fish Composition When they happen, is it overfishing or is it climate change?When they happen, is it overfishing or is it climate change? Goal is to model the complete range of processes from climate to fisheries to get both top-down and bottom-up effectsGoal is to model the complete range of processes from climate to fisheries to get both top-down and bottom-up effects Can we do it?Can we do it?

12 BEST- BSIERP

13 End-to-End Models They are coming! BEST-BSIERP is one example of how to do itThey are coming! BEST-BSIERP is one example of how to do it They are primarily built from existing stand-alone componentsThey are primarily built from existing stand-alone components NPZ and fish models meet at zooplanktonNPZ and fish models meet at zooplankton –Closure for getting phytoplankton right –Fish food

14 Some Problems Zooplankton biomass vs. stagesZooplankton biomass vs. stages Functional groupingsFunctional groupings –Diet shifts in fish –Prey selection by zooplankton New organismsNew organisms –Jellyfish –People ValidationValidation

15 A Simpler Problem? Sardine – Anchovy cyclesSardine – Anchovy cycles –Well-studied species with population cycles observed in many systems –Teleconnections across basins Good case studyGood case study –Forage fish tightly coupled to NPZ –Important ecologically and widely distributed –Low frequency variability Provided by: Salvador E. Lluch-Cota Source: Schwartzlose et al., 1999

16 Source: MacCall, 1990 Californian Anchovy Larval Abundance April 1952 Low Anchovy Abundance April 1965 High Anchovy Abundance

17 Our Model Components Community Earth System Model (CESM)Community Earth System Model (CESM) Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with NEMURO NPZRegional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with NEMURO NPZ Superindividual model of sardines and anchovies (Rose)Superindividual model of sardines and anchovies (Rose) California and Mexican sardine fishery (Haynie)California and Mexican sardine fishery (Haynie)

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19 Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) Community coastal ocean modelCommunity coastal ocean model –Over 750 svn downloads –In active development with: online discussion forumonline discussion forum documentation wikidocumentation wiki bug tracking systembug tracking system –Annual meetings, outside the US in alternate years

20 More ROMS Finite volumeFinite volume HydrostaticHydrostatic Terrain-following vertical coordinateTerrain-following vertical coordinate Structured horizontal gridsStructured horizontal grids MPI parallelMPI parallel Several NPZ optionsSeveral NPZ options

21 ROMS Developers

22 Some Regional Domains

23 Eastern Bering Sea Goal is to model:Goal is to model: –Ocean physics –Phytoplankton bloom Spring, fall, ice algaeSpring, fall, ice algae –Zooplankton –Fish –Fishing fleet Timing of spring bloom depends on sea ice meltTiming of spring bloom depends on sea ice melt

24 Model Validation From Seth Danielson

25 Model Validation From Seth Danielson

26 Summary of Bering Sea More model comparisons to come (Seth’s thesis)More model comparisons to come (Seth’s thesis) Hindcast first, future scenarios to comeHindcast first, future scenarios to come Proof of concept that model will run with forcing and boundary conditions from global climate modelProof of concept that model will run with forcing and boundary conditions from global climate model –One-way nesting

27 ROMS-CESM Coupling With:With: –Enrique Curchitser (Rutgers) –Bill Large (NCAR) –Jim Hurrell (NCAR) –Jon Wolfe (was at NCAR) –Brian Kaufmann (NCAR) –Jerome Fiechter (UCSC) –Fei Chai (UMaine) –Justin Small (NCAR)

28 The multi-scale problem Dickey, 1991, 2003 Downscaling Upscaling

29 SST, August 18, 2000

30 Background and motivation WCRP strategic framework Improved predictions of changes in statistics of regional climate, especially extreme events, are required to assess impacts and adaptation Recognize the need to improve representation of weather and climate link Working hypothesis is that the internal dynamics of the system are more accurately represented at higher resolution

31 Nested Regional Climate Models (NRCM) at NCAR Seamlessly integrate weather (WRF), high resolution ocean (ROMS) and climate models (CESM) to: Better capture and investigate important space/time scale interactions Develop approaches for reducing biases Inform the development of next-generation Earth System Models Apply the model to challenging science and important societal questions Assist decision-makers to plan for regional changes

32 Re-designing the CESM POP

33 CESM Strategy The coupling interval is one day, with the atmosphere running aheadThe coupling interval is one day, with the atmosphere running ahead The composite ocean receives hourly winds, etc. and interpolates to ROMS grid(s)The composite ocean receives hourly winds, etc. and interpolates to ROMS grid(s) POP runs for that day, sends “curtains” out for ROMS nestsPOP runs for that day, sends “curtains” out for ROMS nests ROMS runs for that dayROMS runs for that day Composite ocean merges SST from both ocean models for CAMComposite ocean merges SST from both ocean models for CAM

34 The new global SST (NCAR-CESM)

35 A closer look at the down-scaled region (temperature and wind anomalies)

36 Summary of NRCM Mechanics of coupling is workingMechanics of coupling is working –Three-year old code base –Currently updating to new codes Funded project to study air-sea carbon fluxes in three upwelling systemsFunded project to study air-sea carbon fluxes in three upwelling systems

37 Fish (and Fishers) Project With:With: –Jerome Fiechter (UCSC) –Kenny Rose (LSU) –Enrique Curchitser (Rutgers) –Bern Megrey (NOAA-AFSC) –Alan Haynie (NOAA-AFSC) –Miguel Bernal (IEO, Spain) –Salvador Lluch-Cota (CIBNOR, Mexico) –Others…

38 Full Life Cycle SuperindividualsSuperindividuals ReproductionReproduction GrowthGrowth MovementMovement –Feeding and spawning MortalityMortality –Fishing –Predators –Starvation

39 Many Challenges Behavior should include spawning and feeding migrations, predator avoidance, etc.Behavior should include spawning and feeding migrations, predator avoidance, etc. Growth requires knowledge of bioenergetics – grow or make eggs?Growth requires knowledge of bioenergetics – grow or make eggs? Mortality from starvation – don’t all starve at onceMortality from starvation – don’t all starve at once Spawning new superindividuals in bounded memory spaceSpawning new superindividuals in bounded memory space

40 Methods “Fish” as modified floats“Fish” as modified floats Fixed number of fish per species per yearclassFixed number of fish per species per yearclass Limit number of yearclasses, killing off too old fishLimit number of yearclasses, killing off too old fish Feedback to NPZ-type model, NEMURO for now (PICES)Feedback to NPZ-type model, NEMURO for now (PICES) Fish-eat-fish and fishing fleets require knowledge of fish in i,j spaceFish-eat-fish and fishing fleets require knowledge of fish in i,j space

41 fish_list

42 Fish Growth Compute change in weightCompute change in weight Bioenergetics-basedBioenergetics-based Consumption determined by:Consumption determined by: –Zooplankton in cell (NEMURO) –Other individual fish in the neighborhood Once mature, allocate energy to growth or reproductionOnce mature, allocate energy to growth or reproduction

43 Movement Eggs, yolk-sac and larvae are moved by the currentsEggs, yolk-sac and larvae are moved by the currents Juveniles, sub-adults and adults move by behaviorJuveniles, sub-adults and adults move by behavior Two choices (for now):Two choices (for now): –Kinesis (Humston et al., 2004), sum of random plus moving to better temperature –Railsback, look for food

44 Using Humston Behavior

45 Using Railsback Behavior

46 Create new Superindividuals Fixed number per day of spawning – spawning happens in a fixed time windowFixed number per day of spawning – spawning happens in a fixed time window Find out how many adults spawn that day, how many eggsFind out how many adults spawn that day, how many eggs Could have:Could have: –No eggs –Fewer cells with eggs than new SIs –More cells with eggs than new SIs

47 Bisection Master node builds an egg array with all of the eggs in each cellMaster node builds an egg array with all of the eggs in each cell Array is for the entire gridArray is for the entire grid Successively divide up domain in i,j directions until available superindividuals are filledSuccessively divide up domain in i,j directions until available superindividuals are filled Toss out empty partitionsToss out empty partitions Keep a sorted (by egg count) linked list of partitionsKeep a sorted (by egg count) linked list of partitions

48 Bisection

49 Another Example

50 Test of Spawning

51 Mortality Starvation – bioenergetics are comingStarvation – bioenergetics are coming Predator – not full lifecycle:Predator – not full lifecycle: –Modeled on albacore –Migrate in to feed, spawn elsewhere Fishing fleetsFishing fleets

52 Fishing Fleet Targeting sardines only in the California CurrentTargeting sardines only in the California Current Movement based on engineering, economics, behavior (evaluated once daily in model)Movement based on engineering, economics, behavior (evaluated once daily in model) Maximize revenue based on expected CPUEMaximize revenue based on expected CPUE

53 Fishing Fleet - Six ports: (CA(3), OR(1), WA(2)) - Num of boats per ports: Average catch per boat: tons - Boat motoring speed: 20 km/h -Time to fish/process catch: 2 hours - Average price for catch: $/kg

54 NEMUROMS.SAN ( ) Fully coupled ROMS + NEMURO + Fish + Predators + Fleet (20,000 individuals; 1,000 predators; 100 fishing boats)

55 Future Fish Plans Tuning of bioenergetics and behaviorTuning of bioenergetics and behavior –Warm/cold behavior switch –Make them look like sardines and anchovies Name this thing!Name this thing! Write some papersWrite some papers

56 Summarizing We have developed a new approach to regional downscaling of climate models that maintains the important feedbacks in the system.We have developed a new approach to regional downscaling of climate models that maintains the important feedbacks in the system. The new resolved physical scales are closer to what is needed for biology.The new resolved physical scales are closer to what is needed for biology.

57 We are developing an individual based model for fish and fishers which is tightly coupled to the physics and lower trophic level models.We are developing an individual based model for fish and fishers which is tightly coupled to the physics and lower trophic level models. Feedbacks in the biological models may also be important.Feedbacks in the biological models may also be important.

58 Some further thoughts End-to-end models are coming. The multi-scale problem exists in biology as well, and needs to be addressed.End-to-end models are coming. The multi-scale problem exists in biology as well, and needs to be addressed. Due to the complexity, different approaches are likely to be better suited for certain problems.Due to the complexity, different approaches are likely to be better suited for certain problems. Models will not be too useful in a data vacuum. We need the same big-picture approach to observations as is being used in the development of complex models.Models will not be too useful in a data vacuum. We need the same big-picture approach to observations as is being used in the development of complex models.

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61 Why ROMS Framework Fish IBM Sardines Anchovies Predators Regional Ocean Circulation Model NPZ Component (multiple) Floats Component Data Assimilation Climate Coupling Fishing Fleet


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