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Using global climate models to evaluate environmental problems and potential solutions Ken Caldeira Dept. of Global Ecology Carnegie Institution for Science.

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Presentation on theme: "Using global climate models to evaluate environmental problems and potential solutions Ken Caldeira Dept. of Global Ecology Carnegie Institution for Science."— Presentation transcript:

1 Using global climate models to evaluate environmental problems and potential solutions Ken Caldeira Dept. of Global Ecology Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford CA 94305 USA kcaldeira@carnegiescience.edu PIK 21 May 2012

2 Exercises in undisciplined science Ken Caldeira Dept. of Global Ecology Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford CA 94305 USA kcaldeira@carnegiescience.edu PIK 21 May 2012

3 Factual statements Prescriptive and normative statements Values, moralityScience

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5 international v

6 Caldeira, Cao, and Bala, submitted Where did carbon come out of the ground to supply Germany’s CO 2 emissions? Germany Russia Norway Rest of world

7 Caldeira, Cao, and Bala, submitted Where was CO 2 emitted to support consumption in Germany? Germany China Rest of world

8 Caldeira, Cao, and Bala, submitted Where was the carbon extracted to supply consumption in Germany? Germany Russia Norway Rest of world

9 What is the international trade in carbon that is extracted from the ground in one country and emitted in another? Davis, Peters, and Caldeira, PNAS 2011 Extraction  Production

10 Where was CO 2 released in one country to produce products that were consumed in a different country ? Davis, Peters, and Caldeira, PNAS 2011 Production  Consumption

11 What is the international trade in real or “embodied” carbon from the country of extraction to country of consumption? Davis, Peters, and Caldeira, PNAS 2011 Extraction  Consumption

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13 Infrastructural commitment to future climate change How much climate change are we committed to from existing CO 2 - emitting devices? Steven J. Davis, lead co-conspirator Assuming normal device lifetime

14 Infrastructural commitment to future climate change Approach Analyze existing stock of power plants, automobiles, etc, and estimate future emissions from these devices Apply emissions in a climate models Project future temperature change

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16 Infrastructural commitment to future climate change Davis, S. J., K. Caldeira, and H. D. Matthews (2010) Future CO 2 emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure, Science

17 Infrastructural commitment to future climate change

18 Davis, S. J., K. Caldeira, and H. D. Matthews (2010) Future CO 2 emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure, Science Infrastructural commitment to future climate change A1G-FI A2 B1

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20 Climate consequences of energy system transitions What the climate effects be of specific energy system transitions, taking into account energy-system life-cycle analysis data? Nathan Myhrvold, lead co-conspirator

21 Climate consequences of energy system transitions Approach Develop simple low-dimensional climate model -- radiative forcing from greenhouse gases -- time evolution of GHG concentrations -- thermal inertia of ocean -- radiative fluxes to space Represent GHG emissions during plant construction and operation Simulate energy system transitions

22 Climate consequences of 40 year transition of 1 TW coal system to alternative technologies

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24 Climate consequences of afforestation / deforestation What are the combined biophysical and biogeochemical responses t large-scale afforestation or deforestation? Govindasamy Bala, lead co-conspirator

25 Climate consequences of afforestation / deforestation LLNL coupled ocean-atmosphere carbon-climate model (NCAR PCM2, IBIS, modified OCMIP) Govindasamy Bala, lead co-conspirator

26 With deforestation, CO 2 is much higher but temperatures are slightly cooler A2 Atmospheric CO 2 Temperature Additional contribution from loss of CO 2 - fertilization of forests Effect of loss of carbon from forests

27 Global deforestation experiment: net temperature change (CO 2 + biophysical) A2

28 Temperature change predicted in latitude-band deforestation simulations Boreal Temperate Tropical

29 Predicted role of forests Tropical forests cool the planet Temperate (mid-latitude) forests do little Boreal forests warm the planet

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31 Does evaporating water cool global climate? George Ban-Weiss, lead co-conspirator

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34 Does evaporating water cool global climate? For each Joule of evaporated water, about ½ Joule additional gets to space 1 W/m 2 of evaporation leads to about ½ K cooling

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36 Geophysical limits on wind power How much power could civilization get out of winds, considering only geophysical limits? Kate Marvel, lead co-conspirator

37 Geophysical limits on wind power Approach Perform simulations using NCAR’s CAM3.5 atmosphere model coupled to mixed-layer ocean with specified heat transport. 2⁰ lat x 2.5⁰ lon, 26 horizontal layers 100 year simulations, 60 years used

38 Geophysical limits on wind power Simulations Drag added to (i.e., momentum removed from) SL: bottom two Surface Layers WA: Whole Atmosphere Effective drag area from 1 to 10 4 m 2 km -3

39 Geophysical limits on wind power A disk = Disk area η = Fraction of kinetic energy (momentum) removed from flow

40 Geophysical limits on wind power A disk = Disk area η = Fraction of kinetic energy (momentum) removed from flow Effective area A eff = η A disk

41 Amount effective drag area and kinetic energy extracted

42 Global power demand

43 Climate effects: Temperature change Suggests civilization-scale zonal mean temperature changes of ~0.1 K

44 Climate effects: Precipitation change Suggests civilization-scale zonal mean precipitation changes of ~1 % 429 TW 428 TW

45 Atmospheric kinetic energy

46 Atmospheric kinetic energy production (loss) Slope = 0.8

47 Atmospheric poleward heat transport

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49 Conclusions: wind power Geophysical limits to global wind power greatly exceed global power demand. Global power demand ~ 18 TW Near surface winds > 429 TW Whole atmosphere > 1873 TW Climate effects of uniformly distributed wind turbines appear to be minor at civilization scale (0.1 K temperature, 1% precipitation)

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51 Distribution of corals and ocean acidification Long Cao, lead co-conspirator

52 012345 CorrosiveOptimal Ω Aragonite Carbon dioxide level, Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation Cao and Caldeira, 2008

53 012345 CorrosiveOptimal Ω Aragonite Cao and Caldeira, 2008 Carbon dioxide level, Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation

54 012345 CorrosiveOptimal Ω Aragonite Cao and Caldeira, 2008 Carbon dioxide level, Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation

55 012345 CorrosiveOptimal Ω Aragonite Cao and Caldeira, 2008 Carbon dioxide level, Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation

56 012345 CorrosiveOptimal Ω Aragonite Cao and Caldeira, 2008 Carbon dioxide level, Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation

57 012345 CorrosiveOptimal Ω Aragonite Cao and Caldeira, 2008 Carbon dioxide level, Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation

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59 One Tree Reef, Queensland, Australia Kenny Schneider, lead co-conspirator

60 Study area at One Tree Reef About 4 km x 2 km

61 Water ponds at different levels in different lagoons at low tide. Some flow over sills.

62 One Tree Island Research Station

63 Our study area

64 Depth transect along experimental site

65 Observed reductions in alkalinity concentrations as water flows over reef and reef builds CaCO 3 skeleton

66 If added alkalinity was taken up by reef, we should have seen a decrease in alkalinity-to-dye ratio as water flowed over reef. We did not detect any increase in calcification as a result of alkalinity addition. Time scale of response?

67 We did not control for formation (dissolution) of Mg(OH) 2.

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69 Ken Caldeira Dept. of Global Ecology Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford CA 94305 USA kcaldeira@carnegiescience.edu Post-doc positions available for brilliant, creative, and productive scientists who have recently completed or will soon complete their PhD. If you fit this category and the kind of stuff in this talk interests you, please email your CV to me with “post-doc application” in the header line.

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71 Ocean chemical consequences of ocean iron fertilization Can ocean fertilization help with the ocean acidification problem, as has sometimes been claimed? Long Cao, lead co-conspirator

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73 Consequences of CO 2 removal from the atmosphere What is the relationship between CO 2 removal from the atmosphere, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and temperature? Long Cao, lead co-conspirator

74 Consequences of CO 2 removal from the atmosphere Approach Remove all CO 2 from the atmosphere of a carbon-climate model and see what happens. (Uvic model)

75 Consequences of CO 2 removal from the atmosphere Cao, L., and K. Caldeira. Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal: long-term consequences and commitment. 2010, Environmental Research Letters. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024011

76 Consequences of CO 2 removal from the atmosphere Cao, L., and K. Caldeira. Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal: long-term consequences and commitment. 2010, Environmental Research Letters. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024011

77 Ocean chemical consequences of ocean iron fertilization Approach Take the extreme case where we assume that ocean iron fertilization is able to cause all ocean mixed-layer phosphate to be utilized. Perform simulations in the UVic carbon-climate model and see what happens. Cao, L., and K. Caldeira. 2010. Can ocean iron fertilization mitigate ocean acidification? Climatic Change, 99. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9799-4

78 Ocean chemical consequences of ocean iron fertilization No iron fertilization (A2 CO 2 emissions) Fertilize ocean to mitigate atmosphere CO 2 8.18 7.74 7.80 7.74 3.53 1.54 1.71 1.52 pH Aragonite saturation Year 2100 Fertilize ocean to generate carbon credit Without human interference

79 Ocean chemical consequences of ocean iron fertilization No iron fertilization (A2 CO 2 emissions) Fertilize ocean to mitigate atmosphere CO 2 8.18 7.74 7.80 7.74 3.53 1.54 1.71 1.52 pH Aragonite saturation Year 2100 Fertilize ocean to generate carbon credit Without human interference

80 Ocean chemical consequences of ocean iron fertilization No iron fertilization (A2 CO 2 emissions) Fertilize ocean to mitigate atmosphere CO 2 8.18 7.74 7.80 7.74 3.53 1.54 1.71 1.52 pH Aragonite saturation Year 2100 Fertilize ocean to generate carbon credit Without human interference

81 Ocean chemical consequences of ocean iron fertilization No iron fertilization (A2 CO 2 emissions) Fertilize ocean to mitigate atmosphere CO 2 8.18 7.74 7.80 7.74 3.53 1.54 1.71 1.52 pH Aragonite saturation Year 2100 Fertilize ocean to generate carbon credit Without human interference

82 Solar Geoengineering Julia Pongratz, lead co-conspirator

83 Temperature effects of doubled CO 2 Δ TemperatureStatistical significance Caldeira and Wood, 2008 Temperature effects of doubled CO 2

84 Δ TemperatureStatistical significance Caldeira and Wood, 2008 with a uniform deflection of 1.84% of sunlight

85 Precipitation effects of doubled CO 2 Caldeira and Wood, 2008

86 Temperature effects of doubled CO 2 Caldeira and Wood, 2008 with a uniform deflection of 1.84% of sunlight

87 Caldeira and Wood, 2008 Deflecting 1.8% of sunlight reduces but does not eliminate simulated temperature and precipitation change caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 content

88 But what about the effect of decreased sunlight food?

89 Probability of 2080-2100 summer being hotter than hottest on record

90 Maize yield in a high-CO 2 world without and with deflection of sunlight Benefit of CO2- fertilization without the costs of higher temperatures Pongratz et al 2012

91 From Pongratz, Lobell, Cao &-Caldeira, Nature Climate Change, 2012. Crop yields in a high-CO 2 world without and with deflection of sunlight Benefit of CO2-fertilization without the costs of higher temperatures

92 92 From Pongratz, Lobell, Cao &-Caldeira, Nature Climate Change, 2012. Crop yields in a high-CO2 world without and with deflection of sunlight

93 93 Crop yields in a high-CO2 world without and with deflection of sunlight Pongratz et al 2012

94 94 From Pongratz, Lobell, Cao &-Caldeira, Nature Climate Change, 2012. % increase in crop yields in a high-CO 2 world without and with deflection of sunlight 2xCO2 minus pre- industrial 2xCO2 + geo minus pre- industrial 2xCO2 + geo minus 2xCO2 Maize-31114 Wheat62621 Rice19288

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