Presentation on theme: "Welsom Space Power August 2008 1 CONFIDENTIAL Subject to NDA Welsom Space Power Business Plan A lucrative opportunity in PV solar arrays for space based."— Presentation transcript:
Welsom Space Power August 2008 1 CONFIDENTIAL Subject to NDA Welsom Space Power Business Plan A lucrative opportunity in PV solar arrays for space based energy creation V5.7 23. April 2009 Breakthrough Technology for the fossil fuel free economy Vacuum deployment of MSRS Technologies CP1 ® polyimide 20-meter boom (source NASA)
Welsom Space Power April 2009 2 State of the Art in PV for space applications State of the art for PV power in space are GaInP/GaAs/GaInAs crystalline cells/arrays <28% efficiency (a-Si <10%) 120-180 W/kg specific power for deployable arrays (too heavy for GW scale) Only two large suppliers Boeing and Sharp Up to 1000 $ /W market price for PV modules for communication satellites ISS Solar arrays were sold at 1700 $/W! Market leader US Boeing Spectrolab, annual production < 1.3MW or <1% of total PV world market 1.3GWpa Space PV is today still a niche market, but with >1 B$ annual turnover!
Welsom Space Power April 2009 3 Future History Driving forces in innovation for space PV Historically, push for smallest possible area for fear of space debris impact on communication satellites No thin film technology available that survives space environmental conditions up to date Highest areal efficiency for decades only path to improved performance But: if one factor is not critical in space, it is… SPACE! (after all it is called space by definition) Lower areal efficiency but superior weight dramatically pushes specific power W/kg, which is far more important in space applications due to launch cost of > 10‘000$/kg W/m 2 W/kg
Welsom Space Power April 2009 4 Why is PV for space advancing so slowly? Extremely high entry barriers for newcomers due to complex space heritage requirements Bureacratic hurdles in government organisations like NASA, ESA preventing disruptive innovation Limited public private partnerships so far in driving innovation Perception based on historic experience, space applications are considered intrinsically long in transfer from laboratory to real use BUT: Strong private US entrepreneurs entering the space market due to liberalization and lack of NASA funding, such as Richard Branson, Bigelow Aerospace, SpaceX are pushing innovation and increase market dynamics Global cooperations not only encouraged but actively pushed, unleashing unprecedented synergies in radical innovations such as SBSP
Welsom Space Power April 2009 5 What is the key strength of Switzerland? Switzerland is the world‘s pioneer in thin film photovoltaic basic research, pushed since 1994 by University of Neuchâtel, PV laboratory of IMT IMT ist the established long term strategic partner of Oerlikon OC Solar, operating the industrial PV R&D Lab Oerlikon SPTec in Neuchâtel since 2003 IMT is the scientific partner of Bertrand Piccard‘s Solar Impulse Project www.solarimpulse.com www.solarimpulse.com A private consultant is expert technology and business consultant with relevant PV industry background including cost of ownership and manufacturing know how.
Welsom Space Power April 2009 6 What led to the global WELSOM consortium? Independent discovery by US private entrepreneur Kevin Reed, looking for innovative solutions in retinal implant structures with photosensitive materials Unique UV sensitive polymers by US Mantech-SRS company proved of superior dual use also for large area PV thin film applications, discovered in 2005 First scientific publication at PV conference in Hawaii 2006 After intense lobbying pushed by Kevin Reed, global partners could be convinced to seriously look into a cooperation both in core group and supply chain Nearly two years of negotations led by Reed, a private consultant and IMT led to a worldwide exclusive technology contract for commercialization of thin film based PV technology for space applications, signed in September 2007 Welsom has a global monopoly for ultralight advanced PV technology for space!
Welsom Space Power April 2009 7 Welsom Executive summary Welsom = Weightless Solar Modules, acronym by Consortium partners Welsom has proprietary technology to produce space solar power arrays that are 35 times lighter and 100 times smaller in stowed volume than existing arrays. Welsom will use this technology to produce solar power systems for space and high altitude applications in the 10-100 kW range. Our unique selling proposition (USP): Welsom can manufacture these leading products at one tenth of the price of our competitors. Welsom currently seeks €1.2M as the first stage of a €21.6M 3-tranche investment with a 5-year IRR of 48%. The initial €1.2M investment can be returned in 4 years with an IRR of 50%. Optional is a right to convert cash contribution to equity after incorporation Preferred is MOU combining first two funding stages in one contract to extend planning security, €1.2M and €2.7M with separate equity conversion factor, release of second stage based on successful milestone 0 (proof of concept)
Welsom Space Power April 2009 8 Company overview Welsom is currently organized as a contract among partners of a consortium with the intent to incorporate in Switzerland, HQ preferred in Zug. Consortium members include: -Institut de Microtechnique’s Photovoltaic Laboratories, University of Neuchâtel (IMT), Switzerland. -Mantech-SRS Technologies, Inc. of Huntsville (MSRS), Alabama, USA -SESCRC Bioengineering Research, Anaheim, California, USA -Private business and PV technology consultant, Switzerland.
Welsom Space Power April 2009 9 Product summary Flexible, thin-film expanding-deployable solar arrays for space applications. -Superior power density. -Radiation resistant. -Intra-panel connections etched in silicon. -Modular design scalable to very large arrays. Two types of deployment concepts Fully deployed for high power applicationsSequentially deployed over time to extend life Strategic partner for mass production of TF contacting process required
Welsom Space Power April 2009 10 Competitive advantage Flexible, thin-film expanding-deployable solar arrays for space applications. Exclusive access to NASA-developed LaRC-CP1 ® and MSRS-developed CORIN™ polymers: -Flight-tested with ultra lightweight superstrates and radiation resistance. Exclusive access to Oerlikon's terrestrial-based solar power array equipment: -Based on Welsom’s relationship with IMT. Exclusive access to IMT's thin-film talent, know-how, and relevant IP. First mover advantages: -First thin-film, flexible arrays for space applications. -Preparations underway for flight demonstration aboard Genesis-2 commercial space station. -Will have production equipment ready to go shortly after flight testing. All the advantages result in a unique selling proposition for Welsom: We can manufacture our products at one tenth of the price of our competitors!
Welsom Space Power April 2009 11 Comparative advantage Crystalline silicon Triple junction Scarlet (stretched lens) LaRC-CP1® a-SI:H CORIN TM a-Si:H CIGS Technology readiness Cell efficiency at end-of life % Power density of array (W/kg) Radiation resistance GEO Atomic oxygen resistance LEO Scalability to large space arrays Relative cost mature, in common usage 8 - 10 20 - 40 low limited by launch volume low - medium 24 - 30 80 - 180 high limited by launch volume high some flight experience 24 - 30 150 high unknown difficult because of precision deployment high flown in ISS, lab cells tested 8 - 9 1'370 superior low very easy very low manufactured + lab tested for atomic oxygen 8 - 9 1'370 superior high very easy very low lab cells have been tested 12 - 14 120? high limited by array design medium mature, in common usage Products Properties
Welsom Space Power April 2009 12 Industry outlook MW first 10 years Communications satellites Electric propulsion High altitude airships Lunar surface power New space platforms Satellite repair and maintenance Solar power satellites 6 1 56 0.3 1 60 Period Applications MW, Following 10 years 20 2 200 1 2.5 2'000 0.5 by 2025 Other
Welsom Space Power April 2009 13 Our demand assumptions Total22261170.2867.685 20 2 200 0.5 1 2.5 2000 5 1 50 0 0.25 0.75 60 2017 - 2026 MW 2008 Communications satellites Electric propulsion High altitude airships Lunar surface power New space platforms Satellite repair and maintenance Solar power satellites 0.200 0.010 0.050 0 0.001 0 0.025 Period Applications 2009 - 2011 0.900 0.025 6 0 0.010 0.25 0.500 2012 - 2016
Welsom Space Power April 2009 14 Demand and sales forecast 0.390 <<1 0 2009 5.239 12 0.629 3.538 9.10 0.322 20132010 Annual smoothed demand MW (without power satellites) Market penetration % Sales forecast MW 1.395 <<1 0.0009 Period Forecast 2011 2.395 1.70 0.0411 2012
Welsom Space Power April 2009 15 Major potential customers
Welsom Space Power April 2009 16 Marketing plan Segments: -Start with New Space and gain credibility. -Develop a niche in commercial communication satellites by moving to a multi- segment customer such as EADS Astrium. -Leapfrog to other multi-segment customers to enter additional segments. Channels: -Use marketing managers where necessary. -Utilize aerospace marketing firms in foreign markets. Pricing: -Start with € 200 / W for New space 80% customer savings. -Charge € 400 / W after that 60% customer savings. -Reduce price afterwards, as new competition demands. -With our extremely high margins, there is plenty of room to manoeuvre!
Welsom Space Power April 2009 17 Business model solar arrays Welsom Space Power MSRSIMT Customers Sub- contractor(s) for cell deposition substrate € € R+D modules + € substrate + €substrate + solar cells € solar modules or arrays MSRS: will be the main supplier, with exclusive delivery of glass coated with CP1 ® or CORIN™ polymer. Processing of the 1.4 m 2 modules will be done by WELSOM, while the cell deposition will be sub-contracted to provider(s) using Oerlikon equipment. Solar modules will be directly sold to integrators (e.g. Kayser Threde) or assembled by MSRS into large arrays to be sold again to satellite or HAA manufacturers. IMT: R+D is a very important part of the Welsom business. Different applications and / or market segments will require dedicated products. IMT will receive a percentage of the after tax profits, with a defined cap level for strategic R+D.
Welsom Space Power April 2009 18 Thin film solar module production Cleaning of glass substrate Deposition of TCO layer Laser scribing (pattern 1) PECVD of thin film Si (P-I-N layer) Laser scribing (pattern 2) Laser scribing (pattern 3) Release finished cell + assemble array Deposition of Back contact 12345678 Clean room
Welsom Space Power April 2009 19 Phases and milestones 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Phases Proof of concept Prototype inte- gration + prep for large array Pilot line startup Initial sales phase Module prototype I. III. V. VI. II. Description Free standing functional small size module and preliminary radiation tests. Evaluation. Pilot line procurement + setting up facility. Ramp up pilot production process Optimization of 50 kW of 1'370 kW / kg array. Ramp up of V-pilot line. Establish Welsom legal entity. High-efficiency, free-standing module and thermo- mechanical reliability tests. Pilot line go decision. Space qualification stages IV. Array integration development. Demonstator array. Pilot line order process. Full functional qualification in space environment, tested according to established standards. Related milestones 20x20 cm 2 module with 2 kW / kg power density. > 3 kW / kg with industry- compatible process + demon- strated radiation durability. Evaluation performed (2) Facility ready (4) Ramp up done (7) Critical space qualification for pilot line achieved. Integration concept defined, demonstrator array ready, logistics prepared for pilot line. Ready for sales: 50 kW product optimized + pilot line ramped up.
Welsom Space Power April 2009 20 Roadmap Year 1 23 4 5 6 Phases Proof of concept Prototype inte- gration + prep for large array Pilot line startup Initial sales phase Module prototype I. III. V. VI. II. Space qualification stages IV. 0 1 3 5 6 Evaluation Pilot line procurement Facility prep 2 4 Pilot line ramp up 7
Welsom Space Power April 2009 21 Ownership and control Legal entity: -Currently a contractual consortium. -Soon a corporation with Swiss headquarters in Zug. Ownership plan: -Consortium members36% -Management25% -Investor(s)39% Board of directors with representatives from: -Consortium -Management -Investor(s) -Outside Scientific advisory board.
Welsom Space Power April 2009 22 Financial results 77%48% 61.7340.567.21-3.64-11.70-1.20 70.3345.765.41-5.44-2.70-1.20 23.4413.94 16.5510.530.96 15.539.063.792.801.600.70 1.80 9.00 1.101.20 0.50 128.7682.3013.150.360.10Sales Research + Development Equipment Depreciation (linear, ?%) Other expenses Incentives Taxes Net profit Cash flow IRR Year 1 M€ 23 4 5 6
Welsom Space Power April 2009 23 Total capital needs 21.608.509.004.10Total 5.063.861.20 2 - 3 1 - 2 Year and stage 12.642.449.001.20 Prototype integration + array large area upscaling preparation 2.701.501.20Module prototype 1.200.700.50Proof of concept R+D M€ Equipment Working capital Total 0 - 1 3 - 4Pilot line startup
Welsom Space Power April 2009 24 Return for investors 301Q / year 650.501 / year 317.703nd tranche 401Q / year 510.371 / year 22.702nd tranche 501Q / year 46.081 / year 11.201st tranche Invest M€ Invest by Return M€ Return by IRR %
Welsom Space Power April 2009 25 Risk summary 1.1 Business: Market slow 2.Resources insufficient 1.2 Business: Competition 4.1 Technology: 1.4 m 2 array 3.Organisation: Grows too fast 4.2 Technology: Space / lifetime heavy high medium low light medium m-h l-m m-h Consequences if a case occurs Probability that a case occurs Risk to watch closely 5.1 Partner out of business 6.1 Insufficient stakeholder support 5.2 High partner dependence 6.2 Inadequate Project management
Welsom Space Power April 2009 26 Closely monitor progress + set up plan to find resources quickly if case occurs. lm 2 m3m3 6 Need more staff impact on cost Risk assessment Probability: high=5 medium-high=4 medium=3 low-medium=2 low=1 Consequences:heavy=5 medium-heavy=4 medium=3 light-medium=2 light=1 Insufficient resources to execute project Potential risks Area 2. Resources 3. Organisation 5. External influences 6. Project execution Likely consequences Mitigation PC Start sales process earlier lm 2 mh 4 Prod 8 1. Competition Sales targets missed Financial issues (price,cost)Price more agressively l1l1 mh 4 4 Put admin processes in place from beginning m3m3 lm 2 6 Company grows too fast: Admin cannot keep up with prod+sales lm 2 mh 5 10 Monitor program closely Step up QC lm 2 mh 4 8 Sales late Production / delivery delay 4. Technology 1. Business 1. Market slow to materialize 1.Demo of 1.4 m 2 array late 1.Space + lifetime issues Delays, customer dissatisfaction 1.Insufficient stakeholder support Severe delay / alternative partner or material search Production delay / customer and reputation loss Production / delivery delay lm 2 h5h5 l1l1 h5h5 l1l1 m3m3 l1l1 m3m3 10 5 3 3 Negotiate exit liability contract Negotiate delivery liability contract clause Negotiate liability contract clause Step up QC and coaching 1.High dependence on partner 1.Inadequate project management 1.Partner out of business
Welsom Space Power April 2009 27 Contact The detailed Businessplan can be obtained after signing an NDA with the Welsom Consortium Please contact: Mr. Kevin Reed Msc., CMO SESCRC/ Welsom Space Power 914 N. Fairview Street, Anaheim CA 92801 Tel. +01 (714) 213-6857, Email firstname.lastname@example.org WELSOM consortium will be leading the discussions with investors