12-km domain 700 mb (~10,000 ft level) Temps – colors Pressure – lines and Wind- barbs 36-hr forecast, valid two afternoons ago
12-km domain 700 mb (~10,000 ft level) RH – colors Vert Vel. – lines & Wind- barbs 18-hr forecast, valid this past Mon. evening Blue in ID/east OR is lift ahead of an upper- level trough
Above is a comparison of what we call Thickness (1000-500mb). We use it to gauge overall airmass temperature. The mild airmass of Monday morning is on left, and a much colder airmass (Wed. morning) following recent weather change is on the right.
12-km domain Surface level Temps – colors Pressure – lines Wind- barbs 15-hr forecast, valid back on Monday, when CA was still in warm airmass
12-km domain This is a map of the high-level Haines Index. It is a 48-hour forecast valid yesterday morning. This Index is meant to depict the potential for large fire growth, given an existing wild- fire. But it doesn’t take wind into account. It’s best use is to predict plume- dominated vs wind- driven fire behavior.
12-km domain Pressure – blue lines Wind speed – colors Important to remem- ber on these upper air maps: Wind is shown in meters/sec. You can approximate mph speeds by doubling the value shown here. In other words, the southern UT winds are over 50 mph! 54-hr fcst, valid yesterday morning.
12-km domain Same idea as previous frame, except at a higher level – this time 500 mb, about 18000’. Winds over Bay Area and Tahoe exceed 80 mph! 48 hour forecast valid 4am yesterday morning
12-km domain Map of 24-hr total predicted precipitation, for the period 4 pm PST Tuesday to 4pm Wed. Scale is in inches. Each level up is double the amount of predicted rain.
Some other useful information found on the main Products matrix page The first highlighted here is the “MM5 Notices and Problems Log”
300 mb Heights, Winds – Analysis etc. 300 mb Heights, Winds -- Model 500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis 500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- Model 700 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis etc. 700 mb Temps, Heights, Winds – Model 850 Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis 850 Temps, Heights, Winds -- Model
In the verification example above, the MM5 model’s 48-hour forecast of 500mb temperatures, pressure (height) lines, and winds are on the right. The forecast was made at 12z (4am PST) on Feb. 10 th, so it predicts for the time of 12z on Feb. 12 th. What actually happened at 12z on Feb. 12 th (i.e. the verification) is shown on the left. Verification from 12-km domain. One can also look at 36-km and 4-km domains
Other useful information, continued …. This is where you can provide feedback to the CEFA/DRI folks who run the MM5 model
4-km domain Predicted surface temperatures in the current cold airmass. In CANSAC graphics, surface temp maps are in Fahrenheit, while upper maps are in in ºC. This is a 57-hour projection, valid 1300 PST Friday.
4-km domain Predicted surface Relative Humidity This is a 33-hour projection, valid 1300 PST today.
In the MM5’s 4-km Domain section, You can click on ‘Soundings’. This will bring you to the map on the left. Placing your cursor over a Sounding point will bring a small pop-up with the Site name. When you click you will see the first (zero forecast hr) Sounding, with a top menu bar containing the other 20 choices at 3-hour intervals out through 60 hours.