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CANSAC Products tour From the perspective of an operational fire-weather Meteorologist.

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Presentation on theme: "CANSAC Products tour From the perspective of an operational fire-weather Meteorologist."— Presentation transcript:

1 CANSAC Products tour From the perspective of an operational fire-weather Meteorologist

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3 36-km domain Strong ridge of high pressure aloft – at 500 mb. 21-hr forecast, valid last Tuesday night

4 36-km domain 700 mb (~10K ft) humidity and wind 36-hr forecast, valid last Wednesday afternoon

5 36-km domain 850 mb (~5000 ft level) Temps –colors Pressure –lines and Wind- barbs 60-hr forecast, valid last Thursday afternoon

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7 12-km domain 700 mb (~10,000 ft level) Temps – colors Pressure – lines and Wind- barbs 36-hr forecast, valid two afternoons ago

8 12-km domain 700 mb (~10,000 ft level) RH – colors Vert Vel. – lines & Wind- barbs 18-hr forecast, valid this past Mon. evening Blue in ID/east OR is lift ahead of an upper- level trough

9 Above is a comparison of what we call Thickness ( mb). We use it to gauge overall airmass temperature. The mild airmass of Monday morning is on left, and a much colder airmass (Wed. morning) following recent weather change is on the right.

10 12-km domain Surface level Temps – colors Pressure – lines Wind- barbs 15-hr forecast, valid back on Monday, when CA was still in warm airmass

11 12-km domain This is a map of the high-level Haines Index. It is a 48-hour forecast valid yesterday morning. This Index is meant to depict the potential for large fire growth, given an existing wild- fire. But it doesn’t take wind into account. It’s best use is to predict plume- dominated vs wind- driven fire behavior.

12 12-km domain Pressure – blue lines Wind speed – colors Important to remem- ber on these upper air maps: Wind is shown in meters/sec. You can approximate mph speeds by doubling the value shown here. In other words, the southern UT winds are over 50 mph! 54-hr fcst, valid yesterday morning.

13 12-km domain Same idea as previous frame, except at a higher level – this time 500 mb, about 18000’. Winds over Bay Area and Tahoe exceed 80 mph! 48 hour forecast valid 4am yesterday morning

14 12-km domain Map of 24-hr total predicted precipitation, for the period 4 pm PST Tuesday to 4pm Wed. Scale is in inches. Each level up is double the amount of predicted rain.

15 Some other useful information found on the main Products matrix page The first highlighted here is the “MM5 Notices and Problems Log”

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17 Other useful information, continued…. This is where you click to look at Air Quality Products. It is a relatively new section of the page. Evan Shipp will cover some of these shortly

18 Air Quality Products

19 Other useful information, continued …. This is where you click to look at NFDRS Products. This page Requires a login and password.

20 Experimental NFDRS 1-day Forecasts National Fire Danger Rating System When you click on one of these images you get a full screen of that image. For example, Energy Release Component (ERC) here

21 Energy Release Component Forecast Initialization: Z -- Valid for

22 Other useful information, continued …. This is where you click to find Verification products for our CANSAC MM5 model.

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24 300 mb Heights, Winds – Analysis etc. 300 mb Heights, Winds -- Model 500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis 500 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- Model 700 mb Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis etc. 700 mb Temps, Heights, Winds – Model 850 Temps, Heights, Winds -- Analysis 850 Temps, Heights, Winds -- Model

25 In the verification example above, the MM5 model’s 48-hour forecast of 500mb temperatures, pressure (height) lines, and winds are on the right. The forecast was made at 12z (4am PST) on Feb. 10 th, so it predicts for the time of 12z on Feb. 12 th. What actually happened at 12z on Feb. 12 th (i.e. the verification) is shown on the left. Verification from 12-km domain. One can also look at 36-km and 4-km domains

26 Other useful information, continued …. This is where you can provide feedback to the CEFA/DRI folks who run the MM5 model

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28 This frame shows most of the products from the 4-km domain, i.e, the model domain with the best resolution

29 Surface 10m Wind Speed (NW Quadrant) 12-Hr fcst valid Tues. 4pm PST on 2/14

30 Surface 10m Wind Speed (SE Quadrant) 33-Hr fcst valid 1pm this afternoon (2/16)

31 4-km domain Predicted surface temperatures in the current cold airmass. In CANSAC graphics, surface temp maps are in Fahrenheit, while upper maps are in in ºC. This is a 57-hour projection, valid 1300 PST Friday.

32 4-km domain Predicted surface Relative Humidity This is a 33-hour projection, valid 1300 PST today.

33 In the MM5’s 4-km Domain section, You can click on ‘Soundings’. This will bring you to the map on the left. Placing your cursor over a Sounding point will bring a small pop-up with the Site name. When you click you will see the first (zero forecast hr) Sounding, with a top menu bar containing the other 20 choices at 3-hour intervals out through 60 hours.

34 Sounding at Sonora CA valid 4am PST 2/8/06


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