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A Climatological Perspective of the 1962 Columbus Day Storm Wolf Read PhD Candidate Forest Science University of British Columbia

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Presentation on theme: "A Climatological Perspective of the 1962 Columbus Day Storm Wolf Read PhD Candidate Forest Science University of British Columbia"— Presentation transcript:

1 A Climatological Perspective of the 1962 Columbus Day Storm Wolf Read PhD Candidate Forest Science University of British Columbia wolfread@alumni.ubc.ca

2 Outline The “Classic Path”: An examination of 9 significant events from 1940-2000 Return intervals Columbus Day Storm (CDS) gust magnitude: Significance relative to other storms CDS pressure tendencies: Examination of a key reason for the extraordinary wind gusts Photos courtesy of Oregon State University.

3 Classic Path: Storm Tracks These are the tracks of 8 (out of 9) significant extratropical cyclones that generated high-winds in the Pacific Northwest from 1940-2000

4 Classic Path: Storm Tracks These are the tracks of 8 (out of 9) significant extratropical cyclones that generated high-winds in the Pacific Northwest from 1940-2000 The average of these tracks, with a strong northward direction just off the Pacific Coast, is sometimes called the “Classic Path”

5 Classic Path: Storm Tracks The low center crosses inside of 130ºW off the coast of Southwest OR, generally between 39º to 44º N Low then tracks NNE toward Vancouver Island, generally 10º to 20º (sometimes up to 30º) off of true N

6 Classic Path: Storm Tracks The nearly due north track is probably a more important consideration for high-winds than exactly at what latitude the low center crosses the 130ºW line The proximity of the low center to the Pacific coast is another consideration for high-wind potential

7 Classic Path: Historic Peak Gust Distributions Is there a pattern to peak gust distributions among classic path storms? Looking at the 4 strongest events 1940-2000: 04 Dec 1945: High winds occurred inland from Southwest OR northward Somewhat like the Columbus Day Storm distribution…

8 Classic Path: Historic Peak Gust Distributions 12 Oct 1962: The Columbus Day Storm Extreme gust speeds carried inland Gust speeds more typical of coastal headlands reach the interior

9 Classic Path: Historic Peak Gust Distributions 13-14 Nov 1981: Pattern quite similar to the Columbus Day Storm Exception: Strait of Juan de Fuca, where strong gusts occurred in locations that are typically spared (e.g. Port Angeles) Wind magnitude not as strong as CDS, save for a few stations (e.g. North Bend, OR, and Sea- Tac, WA)

10 Classic Path: Historic Peak Gust Distributions 11-12 Dec 1995: Like 1981, pattern again reminiscent of the Columbus Day Storm Wind magnitude not as strong, save for a few stations (e.g. Red Bluff and San Francisco, CA)

11 Classic Path: Average Peak Gust Distribution Average peak gust of 9 significant classic-path storms Caveats: Only 9 samples, and most stations have missing data Therefore statistical uncertainty is high Much variance in spatial distribution (e.g. 26 Oct 1950) Take this analysis with a grain of salt

12 Classic Path: Average Peak Gust Distribution Average peak gust of 9 significant classic-path storms Strengths: The strongest storms (1945, 1962, 1981 and 1995) have similar spatial patterns of gust-speed magnitude This map is largely a reflection of the biggest storms

13 Classic Path: Average Peak Gust Distribution The OR coast tends to receive the strongest gusts (>70 mph) The northern Willamette Valley of OR and Northwest Interior of WA also appear more prone to damaging gusts (>60 mph) High-wind gusts also tend to occur in the Puget Lowlands, but not quite with the intensity of locations S and N (55-60 mph)

14 Classic Path: Return Intervals There are a number of ways to compute return intervals Most methods utilize the wind speed record at a particular location

15 Classic Path: Return Intervals The chart above is for Vancouver International Airport, BC There are a number of ways to compute return intervals Most methods utilize the wind speed record at a particular location

16 Classic Path: Return Intervals The chart above is for Vancouver International Airport, BC Analyses such as this can be made for any location with a long-term wind record There are a number of ways to compute return intervals Most methods utilize the wind speed record at a particular location

17 Classic Path: Return Intervals For interior stations such as Portland and Seattle, the results would be similar There are a number of ways to compute return intervals Most methods utilize the wind speed record at a particular location

18 Classic Path: Return Intervals 2-minute average wind speed is on this axis There are a number of ways to compute return intervals Most methods utilize the wind speed record at a particular location

19 Classic Path: Return Intervals The return interval, in years, for a particular speed is on this axis There are a number of ways to compute return intervals Most methods utilize the wind speed record at a particular location

20 Classic Path: Return Intervals The return interval, in years, for a particular speed is on this axis The prediction beyond 44 knots is a form of induction and therefore imperfect There are a number of ways to compute return intervals Most methods utilize the wind speed record at a particular location

21 Classic Path: Return Intervals A 45-knot (52 mph) wind can be expected about once a decade

22 Classic Path: Return Intervals A 45-knot (52 mph) wind can be expected about once a decade Gusts would be around (45 * 1.3) 60 knots (~70 mph)

23 Classic Path: Return Intervals A 50-knot (58 mph) wind can be expected about once every 40 years 50 knots is what occurred at CYVR during the Columbus Day Storm

24 Classic Path: Return Intervals Another way of exploring return frequency: 9 significant classic events from 1940-2000, or 61 years Results in 1 significant classic event about every 7 years

25 Classic Path: Return Intervals Another way of exploring return frequency: 9 significant classic events from 1940-2000, or 61 years Results in 1 significant classic event about every 7 years 4 of these events were particularly strong: 1945, 1962, 1981 and 1995 Results in 1 strong event every 15 years

26 Classic Path: Return Intervals Another way of exploring return frequency: 9 significant classic events from 1940-2000, or 61 years Results in 1 significant classic event about every 7 years 4 of these events were particularly strong: 1945, 1962, 1981 and 1995 Results in 1 strong event every 15 years 2012 - 1995 = 17 years

27 Classic Path: Return Intervals Another way of exploring return frequency: 1 event produced widespread 80-110 mph gusts in the interior of OR and WA (the CDS) Return interval could be interpreted—on very limited data—as being greater than 50 years Remember the Vancouver, BC, data that suggested a 40 year return interval for CDS-magnitude winds

28 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude Chart on the right compares the peak gusts from 5 of the 9 classic events from 1940-2000

29 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude Chart on the right compares the peak gusts from 5 of the 9 classic events from 1940-2000 Peak gust speed in mph

30 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude Chart on the right compares the peak gusts from 5 of the 9 classic events from 1940-2000 Peak gust speed in mph Coastal stations from S to N going left to right

31 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude Chart on the right compares the peak gusts from 5 of the 9 classic events from 1940-2000 Peak gust speed in mph Coastal stations from S to N going left to right Interior stations from S to N going left to right

32 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude Chart on the right compares the peak gusts from 5 of the 9 classic events from 1940-2000 Peak gust speed in mph Coastal stations from S to N going left to right Interior stations from S to N going left to right Red line is the CDS

33 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude The CDS is the only storm event to generate high- wind criteria gusts (50 knots, or 58 mph) at every one of these stations 14 Nov 1981 came close!

34 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude Relative to the other storms, CDS coastal wind speeds were quite strong in areas, but not strikingly so, at long-term official stations Nov 1981 and Dec 1995 produced faster speeds at North Bend, OR

35 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude Interior wind speeds for the CDS, however, were nearly off-scale relative to the other storms As noted earlier, CDS interior wind speeds matched and exceeded coastal wind speeds measured during Nov 1981 and Dec 1995, marking a truly unusual situation

36 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude Graph on left shows an average of the peak gusts from the same 11 stations used in the previous analysis Incorporates all windstorm events— regardless of track type —that produced a ≥40-knot (46 mph) average peak gust from 1948-2003

37 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude Can you find the Columbus Day Storm?

38 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude Can you find the Columbus Day Storm? Are there any events that are even close to the CDS in average peak gust magnitude?

39 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude Can you find the Columbus Day Storm? Are there any events that are even close to the CDS in average peak gust magnitude? Most of the these storms have an average peak gust below 60 mph

40 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude Can you find the Columbus Day Storm? Are there any events that are even close to the CDS in average peak gust magnitude? Most of the these storms have an average peak gust below 60 mph The CDS produced about 2-times the wind- force of the more typical events

41 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude One more way of looking at this: Peak gust response for 21 of the most significant windstorms in the Willamette Valley

42 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude During the Columbus Day Storm, Eugene reported a peak gust of 86 mph, the lowest for any official station in the Valley

43 Significance of the Columbus Day Storm Peak Gust Magnitude The 86 mph low is higher than the highest Willamette Valley gust from any other windstorm (81 mph at Eugene 07 Jan 1961)

44 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds Pressure tendency is (in part) the rate at which the pressure changes over a fixed unit of time

45 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds Pressure tendency is (in part) the rate at which the pressure changes over a fixed unit of time Fast pressure drops

46 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds Pressure tendency is (in part) the rate at which the pressure changes over a fixed unit of time Slow pressure drops

47 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds Pressure tendency is (in part) the rate at which the pressure changes over a fixed unit of time Fast pressure rises

48 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds The chart to the right depicts an 11-station average of maximum 1-hour pressure change for the 9 classic-path storms 1940-2000 1 hPa = 1 mb

49 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds The bars indicate the average of the maximum hourly pressure changes at 11 key stations

50 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds Pressure tendencies integrate at least three variables: 1) Pressure gradient: If two storms are moving at the same speed, the one with the stronger gradient is likely to produce faster pressure changes as a fixed point Higher pressure gradients tend to result in higher wind speeds L L Stronger Gradient (>Wind) Weaker Gradient (<Wind) B A B A Locations A & B are fixed points (e.g. weather stations)

51 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds Pressure tendencies integrate at least three variables: 2) Speed of storm motion Given a similar pressure gradient, the faster the forward speed, the greater the potential wind speeds on the right side (or base if wind flow is ageostrophic) of the storm L L Faster Storm Speed (>Wind) Slower Storm Speed (<Wind) B A B A Locations A & B are fixed points (e.g. weather stations) Wind Speed (longer arrows = faster speed)

52 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds Pressure tendencies integrate at least three variables: 3) A rapidly deepening storm would tend to produce faster pressure falls than a slowly deepening storm Rapidly intensifying storms are more likely to generate damaging winds (generally due to more intense pressure gradients) L L Rapid Strengthening (>Wind) Slower Strengthening (<Wind) B A B A Locations A & B are fixed points (e.g. weather stations) 990 to 975 hPa in 24 hr 990 to 960 hPa in 24 hr

53 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds The Columbus Day Storm had the strongest pressure changes out of any of the storms Rates of pressure fall and rise were 1.5 to 2 times higher than for any of the other classic windstorms

54 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds Nov 1981 and Dec 1995 generated the next strongest rates-of- change in barometric pressure on average Oct 1950 is the outlier—one of the weaker classic storms, but with some fairly strong pressure tendencies

55 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds The pressure gradient magnitudes of Oct 1962, Nov 1981 and Dec 1995 were fairly similar

56 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds The pressure gradient magnitudes of Oct 1962, Nov 1981 and Dec 1995 were fairly similar And all three storms reached peak intensity off of the OR coast, with similar minimum central pressures (~955 hPa give or take a few)

57 Pressure Tendencies: An Explanation for the Extraordinary CDS Winds This suggests that the Columbus Day Storm had a faster speed than the Nov 1981 and Dec 1995 storms Measurement from available surface maps suggests ~50 kt vs. ~30- 35 kt This faster storm speed likely contributed to the higher surface wind gusts on the coast and in the interior

58 Thank You Wolf Read PhD Candidate Forest Science University of British Columbia wolfread@alumni.ubc.ca

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