# Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Day 15.

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Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Day 15

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch 1 -2 Agenda Questions? IP Part 3 (Risk Management) Incomplete (Still) IP Part 4 Due Nov 4 (Changed from original date) Cost estimates and budget Assignment 5 Corrected 3 A’s and 1 B Assignment 6 Posted Due Nov 4 No Class on Oct 31 Use class time for Group Work Exam 2 will be on Nov. 7 Chaps 6-9, 20 M/c and 4 short essays No Class On Nov. 11  Veterans Day. Begin Project Scheduling

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Finals Rescheduling Options Do IP Project presentation on Dec 12 Exam 3 done asynchronously sometime during finals week Do both presentation and exam 3 Wednesday, Dec 18 (any time) Thursday, Dec 19 after 2PM Friday, Dec 20 (any time) 3

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Assignment 5 The Bean Counter and the Cowboy De Havilland Falling Comet 4

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Project Scheduling: Networks, Duration Estimation, and Critical Path 09-05

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Chapter 9 Learning Objectives After completing this chapter, students will be able to: Understand and apply key scheduling terminology. Apply the logic used to create activity networks, including predecessor and successor tasks. Develop an activity network using Activity-on- Node (AON) techniques. Perform activity duration estimation based on the use of probabilistic estimating techniques. 09-06

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Chapter 9 Learning Objectives After completing this chapter, students will be able to: Construct the critical path for a project schedule network using forward and backward passes. Identify activity float and the manner in which it is determined. Calculate the probability of a project finishing on time under PERT estimates. Understand the steps that can be employed to reduce the critical path. 09-07

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Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Project Scheduling Project scheduling requires us to follow some carefully laid-out steps, in order, for the schedule to take shape. Project planning, as it relates to the scheduling process, has been defined by the PMBoK as: The identification of the project objectives and the ordered activity necessary to complete the project including the identification of resource types and quantities required to carry out each activity or task. 09-09

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Project Scheduling Terms Successors Predecessors Network diagram Serial activities Concurrent activities E D C B A F 09-010

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Project Scheduling Terms E D C B A F Merge activities Burst activities Node Path Critical Path 09-011

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Writing a paper Writing a research paper Identify Topic Research Paper Write First Draft Edit and rewrite paper Prepare Class presentation Complete Final Draft Complete presentation Hand-in paper and present topic in class Can this process be completed differently if assigned as group work? 9-12

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Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall AOA Versus AON The same mini-project is shown with activities on arc… C E D B F E C D B F …and activities on node. 09-014

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Node Labels Early Start Activity Float Activity Descriptor Late Start ID Number Activity DurationLate Finish Early Finish 09-15

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 9-16 Node Labels Early Start Activity Float Activity Descriptor Late Start ID Number Activity Duration Late Finish Early Finish Basic math ES + DUR = EF LF - DUR = LS LS – ES = AF

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall FIGURE 9.4 Activity Node Labels Using MS Project 2010 09-17 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

FIGURE 9.5 Serial Activities Serial activities are those that flow from one to the next, in sequence. 09-18 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

FIGURE 9.6 Activities Linked in Parallel (Concurrent) 09-19 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall When the nature of the work allows for more than one activity to be accomplished at the same time, these activities are called concurrent and parallel project paths are constructed through the network.

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall FIGURE 9.7 Merge Activity 09-20 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

FIGURE 9.8 Burst Activity Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 09-21

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall FIGURE 9.10 Complete Activity Network Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 09-22

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall FIGURE 9.11 Developing the Activity Network Using MS Project 2010 09-23 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 9.11.mpp

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 9-24 CPM versus PERT PERT was developed by US Navy in the 1950s’ CPM was developed by Remington Rand and DuPont around the same time. Only difference is in durations estimating Pert uses 3 cases Most optimistic, most pessimistic and most likely and determines probability for each D o P o + D p O p +D e P e = final duration CPM use only the most likely duration

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 9-25 Duration Estimating Duration – the elapsed time from the start of an activity until it is finished Effort -- the actual time spent on the project Example Tony work on a project task for 20 hours at 4 hours per day starting Monday mourning. The project task was completed Late Friday Effort – 20 hours Duration – 5 days

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 9-26 Techniques for Estimating Duration Experience Historical data Research Modeling Experiments Breakdown/roll-up Delphi Method Panel of experts Consultants Three outside Estimates Ranging Other techniques From Text 1)Experience 2)Expert opinion 3)Mathematical Derivation

Duration Estimation Methods Past experience Expert opinion Mathematical derivation – Beta distribution Most likely (m) Most pessimistic (b) Most optimistic (a) Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 09-27

FIGURE 9.14 Symmetrical (Normal) Distribution for Activity Duration Estimation Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 09-28

FIGURE 9.15 Asymmetrical (Beta) Distribution for Activity Duration Estimation Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 09-29

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Activity Duration and Variance 09-30 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Table 9.2

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 9-31 TaskPredecessoramb Z--7815 YZ131619 XZ141822 WY, X121416 VW1413 TW6814 ST, V111419 1.Sketch the network described in the table. 2.Determine the expected duration and variance of each activity. Duration estimate.xlsDuration estimate.xls, Duration estimate.mppDuration estimate.mpp

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Constructing the Critical Path Forward pass – an additive move through the network from start to finish Backward pass – a subtractive move through the network from finish to start Critical path – the longest path from end to end which determines the shortest project length 09-32

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Rules for Forward/Backward Pass Forward Pass Rules (ES & EF) ES + Duration = EF EF of predecessor = ES of successor Largest preceding EF at a merge point becomes EF for successor Backward Pass Rules (LS & LF) LF – Duration = LS LS of successor = LF of predecessor Smallest succeeding LS at a burst point becomes LF for predecessor 09-33

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Project Delta Information 09-34 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Table 9.4

FIGURE 9.16 Partial Project Activity Network with Task Durations Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 09-35

FIGURE 9.18 Activity Network with Forward Pass 09-36 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

FIGURE 9.19 Activity Network with Backward Pass 09-37 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

FIGURE 9.20 Project Network with Activity Slack and Critical Path Note: Critical path is indicated with bold arrows. 09-38 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

FIGURE 9.24 AON Network with Laddering Effect 09-39 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

Laddering Activities Project ABC can be completed more efficiently if subtasks are used A(3)B(6)C(9) ABC=18 days Laddered ABC=12 days A 1 (1)A 2 (1)A 3 (1) B 1 (2)B 2 (2)B 3 (2) C 1 (3)C 2 (3)C 3 (3) 09-40

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall FIGURE 9.25 Example of a Hammock Activity 09-41 Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall

Reducing the Critical Path Eliminate tasks on the CP Convert serial paths to parallel when possible Overlap sequential tasks Shorten the duration on critical path tasks Shorten early tasks longest tasks easiest tasks tasks that cost the least to speed up 09-42

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Summary 1. Understand and apply key scheduling terminology. 2. Apply the logic used to create activity networks, including predecessor and successor tasks. 3. Develop an activity network using Activity-on- Node (AON) techniques. 4. Perform activity duration estimation based on the use of probabilistic estimating techniques. 09-43

Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Summary 5. Construct the critical path for a project schedule network using forward and backward passes. 6. Identify activity float and the manner in which it is determined. 7. Calculate the probability of a project finishing on time under PERT estimates. 8. Understand the steps that can be employed to reduce the critical path. 09-44