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Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 and Higher Education in Alabama February 2014 James H. Johnson, Jr. Allan Parnell Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute.

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Presentation on theme: "Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 and Higher Education in Alabama February 2014 James H. Johnson, Jr. Allan Parnell Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute."— Presentation transcript:

1 Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 and Higher Education in Alabama February 2014 James H. Johnson, Jr. Allan Parnell Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

2 OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Discussion

3 what February 2014 CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL

4 6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises – Again The Browning of America Marrying Out is “In” The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well… and Grandpa’s Too!

5 The South Continues To Rise The South Continues To Rise...Again!

6 SOUTH’S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, Years U.S. Absolute Population Change South’s Absolute Population Change South’s Share of Change ,974,129 8,468,30327% ,123,138 9,339,45533% ,886,12815,598,27930% ,497,94722,650,56350% ,035,66529,104,81449%

7 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, Region 2010 Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S.309,050,81626,884,9729.5% Northeast55,417,3111,753,9783.3% Midwest66,972,8872,480,9983.0% South114,555,74414,318, % West72,256,1838,774, % Alabama4,779,736332,6367.5%

8 SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population ChangePercent of Total UNITED STATES26,884, NORTHEAST1,753, MIDWEST2,480, SOUTH14,318, WEST8,774,

9 STATE SHARE OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, Region/StateAbsolute ChangeState’s Share The South14,318, % Texas 4,293, % Florida 2,818, % Georgia 1,501, % North Carolina 1,486, % Other Southern States 4,218, %

10 Migration-Induced Population Change Domestic and International

11 NET MIGRATION TRENDS, NortheastMidwestSouthWest Total-1,032-2,008+2, Black Hispanic Elderly Foreign born = Net Import= Net Export

12 GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, The Region DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet ,125,0963,470,431654,665268,619132,382136, ,874,4143,477,899396,525232,501132,201100,300 Florida DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet ,053630,051182,00241,74524,10817, ,931668,087-13,15633,09532,0941,001

13 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, Region 2013 Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S.316,128,8396,802,5542.2% Northeast55,943,073566,7511.0% Midwest67,547,890571,5690.9% South118,383,4533,525,5543.1% West74,254,4232,138,6703.0% Alabama4,883,72253,9861.1%

14 SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population ChangePercent of Total UNITED STATES6,802, NORTHEAST566, MIDWEST571, SOUTH3,525, WEST2,138,

15 STATE SHARES OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, Region/StateAbsolute ChangeState’s Share The South3,525, % Texas 1,203, % Florida736, % Georgia 278, % North Carolina 258, % Virginia235,9886.7% Other Southern States812, %

16 A Brief Immigration History

17

18 The Numbers YearAnnual Flow , , , , ,137, ,067,000 Refugees, Parolees, Asylees YearAnnual Flow , , , , ,500 Legal Immigrants

19 The Numbers Cont’d Illegal Immigrants 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades Three million granted amnesty in million illegal immigrants remained after 1986 reforms October 1996: INS estimated there were 5 million illegal immigrants in U.S. Since August 2005: Estimates of illegal population have ranged between $7 million and $15 million Today: An estimated 11.5 million unauthorized immigrants reside in U.S.

20 NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, YearAll ClassesExchange VisitorsAcademic & Vocational Students ,756,903108,023 (1%) 271,861 (2%) ,539,880141,213 (1%) 285,496 (3%) ,574,055214,644 (1%) 355,207 (2%) ,640,540241,364 (1%) 395,480 (2%) ,690,082351,743 (1%) 699,953 (2%) ,824,088389,435 (1%) 741,921 (2%) ,907,139370,176 (1%) 687,506 (2%) ,381,928506,138 (1%) 917,373 (2%) ,082,286526, 931 (1%)1,702,730 (3%)

21

22 U.S. Immigrant Population,

23 U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2011 Race/EthnicityForeign PopulationShare of Total (%) Total40,381, Hispanic18,788, White Alone, not Hispanic 7,608, Black Alone, not Hispanic 3,130, Asian Alone, not Hispanic 9,988, Other Alone, not Hispanic 866, February

24 THE “BROWNING” OF AMERICA

25 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, Race2010 Population Absolute Change 2000 – 2010 Percentage Change Total 308,745,53827,323,6329.7% Non-Hispanic 258,267,94412,151,8564.9% White 196,817,5522,264,7781.2% Black 37,685,8483,738, % AI/AN 2,247,098178,2158.6% Asian Asian 14,465,1244,341, % NH/PI NH/PI 481,576128, % 2 or More Races 2 or More Races 5,966,4811,364, % Hispanic 50,477,59415,171, %

26 NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share US27,323, South14,318, Texas4,293, Florida2,818, Georgia1,501, NC1,486, Alabama332,

27 MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2009 RaceTotalMaleFemale United States White Alone White, Non-Hispanic Black Alone AIAN Alone Asian Alone NHPI Alone Two or More Races Hispanic

28 MEDIAN AGE AND FERTILITY RATES FOR FEMALES IN SOUTH, Demographic GroupMedian Age Fertility/1000 Women All Women White, Non-Hispanic African American American Indian & Native Alaskan Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander Some Other Race Two Or More Races Hispanic Native Born Foreign Born40.479

29 RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White67%47% Blacks12.8%13% Hispanics14%29% Asian5%9% Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

30 TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007 Race/EthnicityTotal Fertility Rate Hispanic2.99 Non-Hispanic White1.87 Blacks2.13 Asian2.04 Native American1.86 Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010)

31 RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White66%50%49.6% Blacks17%16%15.0% Hispanics15%26%26.0% Other2%8%9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

32 RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White67%47% Blacks12.8%13% Hispanics14%29% Asian5%9% Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

33 ALABAMA POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, Race2010 Population Absolute Change 2000 – 2010 Percentage Change 2000 – 2010 Total4,779,736332, Non-Hispanic4,594,134222, White3,204,40278, Black1,244,43794, AI/AN25,9074, Asian Asian52,93721, NH/PI NH/PI1, Some other Race Some other Race4,0301, or More Races 2 or More Races60,44521, Hispanic185,602109,

34 SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH, ALABAMA, Race Absolute Change Percent of Total Total332, Non-Hispanic222, White78, Black94, American Indian4, Asian Asian21, Native Hawaiian Native Hawaiian Some Other Race Some Other Race1, Two or More Races Two or More Races21, Hispanic109,

35 MEDIAN AGE & FERTILITY RATES FOR FEMALES IN ALABAMA Demographic GroupMedian Age Fertility/1000 women* All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic Native Born Foreign Born Source: American Community Survey *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months

36 is “In” Marrying Out

37 INTERMARRIAGE TREND, % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity

38 EDUCATION & INTERMARRIAGE % of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008

39 INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008

40 INTERMARRIAGE RATES BY RACE & ETHNICITY % of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008

41 THE SILVER TSUNAMI

42 U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, Age2009 Absolute Change Percentage Change <25104,960,2505,258, ,096,278-1,898, ,379,43916,977, ,570,5904,496, TOTAL307,006,55024,834,5938.8

43 U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, ( ) Age 50 Age 55 Age 62 Age 65 Average Number/Day12,34411,5419,2218,032 Average Number/Minute

44 THE GREYING OF AMERICA U.S. Census Projections

45 ABSOLUTE AND PERCENT CHANGE IN U.S. POPULATION BY AGE Age % Change Total

46 OLDER WORKERS IN U.S. WORKFORCE YEAR Age 65 or Older Age 75 or Older %4.7% %7.3%

47 POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE IN THE SOUTH, Age 2010 Population Absolute Change Percent Change Total114,555,74414,318, <10 (Gen Z)15,346,3001,284, (Gen Y)31,624,7883,247, (Gen X)22,820, , (Boomers)29,870,4237,731, (Pre-Boomers) 14,893,9852,455,

48 GENERATIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF SOUTH’S POPULATION BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2010

49 ALABAMA ABSOLUTE POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, Age 2010 Population Absolute Change Percent Change All Ages4,779,736332, <251,611,634 48, ,228, , ,281,887266, ,792 77,

50 The End of Men?

51 FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION

52 THE PLIGHT OF MEN Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to Selective male withdrawal from labor market—rising non-employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.

53 COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010 DEGREEMALEFEMALEDIFFERENCE Associate’s293,000486,000193,000 Bachelor’s702,000946,000244,000 Master’s257,000391,000134,000 Professional46,80046, Doctor’s31,50032,9001,400 TOTAL1,330,3001,902,300572,000

54 ENROLLMENT IN 2 YEAR COLLEGES, 2009 Area Total Enrollment Full Time Enrollment (%) Male Enrollment (%) Black Enrollment (%) U.S.20,966, Southeast Region 4,731, North Carolina 574, NC- 2 Yr Colleges 253,

55 UNC SYSTEM STUDENT ENROLLMENT BY GENDER AND TYPE OF INSTITUTION, 2010 Type of Institution Total Enrollment Male Enrollment Percent Male UNC System 175,28176,95344 Majority Serving 139,25063,40346 Minority Serving 36,03113,55038 HBUs 29,86511,19137

56

57 JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) – 2009 (Q3) RECESSION Industry WomenMen Construction -106,000-1,300,000 Manufacturing -106,000-1,900,000 Healthcare +451, ,100 Government +176, ,000 Total -1,700,000-4,700,000

58 COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA’S WELL And Grandpa’s Too!

59 CHILDREN LIVING IN NON- GRANDPARENT AND GRANDPARENT HOUSEHOLDS, Household Type Absolute Number 2010 Absolute Change Percent Change All 74,7182, No Grandparents 67, Both Grandparents 2, Grandmother Only 1, Grandfather Only

60 CHILDREN LIVING IN NON- GRANDPARENT AND GRANDPARENT- HEADED HOUSEHOLDS BY PRESENCE OF PARENTS, 2010 Household Type All Children (in thousands) Living with Both Parents Living with Mother Only Living with Father Only Living with Neither parent All 74, %23.1%3.4%4.0% No Grandparents 67, %21.2%3.3%2.1% Both Grandparents 2, %40.6%5.2%36.1% Grandmother Only 1, %48.4%4.5%33.2% Grandfather Only %45.9%4.4%23.6%

61 GRANDPARENTS LIVING WITH GRANDCHILDREN AGES 18 AND YOUNGER IN THE SOUTH Total1,381,4132,383,981 Grandparents Responsible for Grandchildren 671,9391,409,413 Child's Parents in Household 290,882946,390

62 ...but Challenges Abound DIVERSITY RULES

63

64 ...but insufficient...but insufficient Education is Necessary

65 AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATION Education % Change Less Than High School24.7%23.7% High School Graduate40.6%34.3%-6.3 Some College20.7%24.4%3.7 Bachelor’s Degree or More 14.0%17.6%3.6

66 AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION Occupation % Change Blue Collar40.5%31.6%-8.9 Service Occupation14.3%16.7%2.4 White Collar38.5%44.4%5.9

67 THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED, 2009 PROFESSION % OF ALL JOBLESS WORKERS Architecture & Engineering41.2 Management39.0 Community & Social Services Occupations36.1 Installation, Maintenance & Repair Work34.9 Production Occupations33.4

68 CHANGE IN INCIDENCE OF POVERTY BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN NC, , Educational Attainment Percent Change Less than High School 253,304276, % High School Graduate 216,667234, % Some College, Associate Degree 136,185186, % Bachelor’s degree or higher 49,082 57, % Source: American Community Survey

69 THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT Analytical Reasoning Entrepreneurial Acumen Contextual Intelligence Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity Agility and Flexibility

70 Implications for Workforce Planning and Development Managing transition from the “graying” to the “browning” of America. Competition for talent will be fierce – and global. Embrace immigrants. Successful recruitment and retention will hinge on your ability to effectively manage the full nexus of “diversity” issues. Actively engage in K-12 Education to ensure a steady flow of talent into higher education. Prepare students for the freelance economy July

71 GROWING DEPENDENCY A Train Wreck in the Making

72 DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE AMERICAN SOUTH Source: Census 2010

73 DEPENDENCY RATES FOR SELECTED SOUTHERN STATES, Dependency Rate Georgia 67.4 Counties with Population Decline (31)100.4 Counties Growing % (44)75.2 Counties Growing 10% or more (84)62.6 Dependency Rate North Carolina 68.7 Tier Tier Tier Dependency Rate Alabama Counties with Greatest % Loss Counties with Greatest % Gain 67.1

74 THE END

75 Supplementary Slides Immigrant Costs and Benefits

76

77 Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Economic Impact of Immigrants

78 Data and Methods Immigrant Buying Power (after-tax income) Reduced by 16 percent for remittances, savings, interest payments Input-Output Model to Generate Direct and Indirect Effects – Total Business Revenue – Spin-Off Jobs – State and Local Taxes Economic Output, Direct Taxes Paid, and Public Costs from Government Sources

79 Estimated Immigrant Economic Impact PlaceBuying Power Economic Impact Spin-Off Employment Spin-off Labor Income Spin-off State Taxes North Carolina (2004) $8.3b$9.2b89,600$2.4b$455m Arkansas (2004) $2.7b$2.9b23,100$618m$144m Arkansas (2010) $4.3b$3.9b36,100$1.3b$237m

80 Estimated Cost of Essential Services ServiceNorth Carolina 2004 Arkansas 2004 Arkansas 2010 K-12 Education$467m$186m$460m Health Care$299m$38m$57m Corrections$51m$15m$38m Total$817m$237m$555m

81 Estimated Tax Contributions PlaceDirectIndirect Business Indirect Personal Total North Carolina (2004) $408m$222m$126m$756m Arkansas (2004) $193m$47m$17m$257m Arkansas (2010) $412m$74m$38m$524m

82 Estimated Net Fiscal Impact PlaceCost of Essential Services Tax Contributions Net Impact on State Budget Per-capita Impact North Carolina (2004) $817m$756m-$61m-$102 Arkansas (2004) $237m$257m+19m+158 Arkansas (2010) $555m$524m-$31m-$127

83 SUMMARY RESULTS OF THREE ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDIES IndicatorNorth Carolina Hispanics 2004 Arkansas Immigrants 2004 Arkansas Immigrants 2010 Consumer Expenditures & Tax Contributions $9.2b ($15, 130) $2.9b ($23,577) $3.9b ($16,300) Cost of Essential Services $817m ($1,360) $237m ($1,927) $555m ($2,300) Net Benefit8.3b ($13,770) 2.67b ($21,951) $3.4b ($13,900) Benefit-Cost Ratio$10.00-$1.00$11.00-$1.00$6.00-$1.00

84 Projected Changes in U.S. Buying Power by Race/Ethnicity, Race/Ethnic Group Projected Change All Groups$11.1 trillion$14.1 trillion27% Hispanics$ 1.0 trillion$ 1.5 trillion50% Asians$ billion$775.0 billion42% African Americans $ billion$ 1.2 trillion25% Native Americans$ 67.7 billion$ 90.4 billion34%

85 Value-Adds of Immigrants Boost economic growth & prosperity Fuel knowledge creation Contribute to innovation & technological progress Raise human capital levels & diversify business leadership Fill 3-D jobs Increase tax revenues


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