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American Seas NCOM Assessments and Graphics for JUNE 2010 Frank Bub – NAVOCEANO (16 FEB 11) File: AMSEAS_GOM_NCOM_Evals_all_16FEB11.ppt June coverage – deep water CTD (red) and XBT (blue) profile data locations – total 1013 Releasable to the public, distribution unlimited

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Observed (RED) and Modeled (BLUE) Temperature and Salinity Comparisons at Selected Depths During JUNE 2010 ~1000 profiles Mean observed (RED) and model (BLUE) temperatures at depths of 10, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000m and model minus observed differences Same graphics for salinity (note that XBT salinities are taken from model data) Mean observed (RED) and model (BLUE) depths (m) of temperature surfaces at 24, 21, 18, 15, 12, 9 and 6 degC and model minus observed differences

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Tables & Statistics for Temperature and Salinity Comparisons at Selected Depths During JUNE 2010

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Acoustic Property Analyses AMSEAS – JUNE 2010 Sonic Layer Depth (SLD) In - Layer Gradient (ILG) Below Layer Gradient (BLG) Cutoff Frequency (COF)

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Plots of SLD Distribution and Acoustic Relationships

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Acoustic Stats from AMSEAS Day 1 Analyses % R-NCOM AMSEAS - Runtime: 07/12/10 16:08 (UNCLAS) % ********************************************************************* % Files loaded: 1: 1014 / 1014 observations / model data points... % Data set coverage: to EAST, to NORTH % REGION 05 boundaries: -98 to -80 EAST, 18 to 32 NORTH % Time Span: 01JUN10 to 29JUN10 (28.88 days) 1.SLD 01JUN10 to 29JUN10 (<2 stdev) AMSEAS - GOM SLD 1 OBS Mean (Std) Med: 6.42 (6.07) 6.00 // MODEL R-NCOM Mean (Std) Med: 5.75 (5.56) 4.00 REG Prop. N_Pts Mean_Diff Std_Diff Corr_Coef_R RMS_Error Skill 95% Conf Intervals Obs / Mod SLD [-10.4%] 6.37 [99.2%] [99.7%] CI / ILG 01JUN10 to 29JUN10 (<2 stdev) AMSEAS - GOM ILG 2 OBS Mean (Std) Med: 0.64 (1.06) 0.27 // MODEL R-NCOM Mean (Std) Med: 0.72 (1.00) 0.53 REG Prop. N_Pts Mean_Diff Std_Diff Corr_Coef_R RMS_Error Skill 95% Conf Intervals Obs / Mod ILG [13.4%] 1.36 [212.7%] [213.1%] CI / BLG 01JUN10 to 29JUN10 (<2 stdev) AMSEAS - GOM BLG 3 OBS Mean (Std) Med: 7.04 (1.18) 7.09 // MODEL R-NCOM Mean (Std) Med: 7.23 (1.24) 7.45 REG Prop. N_Pts Mean_Diff Std_Diff Corr_Coef_R RMS_Error Skill 95% Conf Intervals Obs / Mod BLG [ 2.7%] 0.77 [11.0%] [11.3%] 0.54 CI / COF < 10K 01JUN10 to 29JUN10 (<2 stdev) AMSEAS - GOM COF < 10K 4 OBS Mean (Std) Med: 2324 (2558) 1619 // MODEL R-NCOM Mean (Std) Med: 2388 (2454) 2368 REG Prop. N_Pts Mean_Diff Std_Diff Corr_Coef_R RMS_Error Skill 95% Conf Intervals Obs / Mod COF < 10K [ 2.8%] 2803 [120%] [120%] CI /

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AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations Depth (m) of 24º Surface - June 2010

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Temperature Surface Depths (m) at: 24º 21º 18º 15º 12º 9º 6º AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations - June 2010

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Sonic Layer Depths (SLD) Below Layer Gradients (BLG) Acoustic Properties DATA MODEL M-O DIFF SLD 6.6 (6.3) 6.0 (6.0) -0.6 BLG 3.1 (0.6) 3.3 (0.7) +0.2

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AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations June m Temperature and Salinity 50m Temperature and Salinity 100m Temperature and Salinity

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AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations June – 50 – 100m Temperature Scatter Plots 200 – 500 – 1000m Temperature Scatter Plots

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AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations June m Temperature and Salinity 500m Temperature and Salinity 1000m Temperature and Salinity

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100m Sound Speed 200m AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations June m Sound Speed 50m 500m Sound Speed 1000m

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Comparisons between Glider Observations and AMSEAS R-NCOM Analyses for June 2010 (Using PAVE) NAVOCEANO SG135 NAVOCEANO SG127 U. Washington (iRobot) SG515 Woods Hole Glider SP040 NOAA survey WCZ6292

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AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations June 2010 NAVOCEANO Sea Glider SG 135 Upper 1000m AMSEAS Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 1000m SG135 Observed Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 1000m

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AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations June 2010 NAVOCEANO Glider SG135 Upper 100m AMSEAS Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 100m SG135 Observed Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 100m

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AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations June 2010 NAVOCEANO Sea Glider SG 137 Upper 1000m AMSEAS Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 1000m SG137 Observed Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 1000m

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AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations June 2010 NAVOCEANO Glider SG137 Upper 100m AMSEAS Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 100m SG137 Observed Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 100m

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AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations June 2010 University of Washington Sea Glider SG 515 Upper 1000m AMSEAS Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 1000m SG515 Observed Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 1000m

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AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations June 2010 University of Washington Glider SG515 Upper 100m AMSEAS Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 100m SG515 Observed Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 100m

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AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations June 2010 Woods Hole Glider SP040 Upper 500m (maximum depth) AMSEAS Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 500m SP040 Observed Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 500m

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AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations June 2010 Woods Hole Glider SP040 Upper 100m AMSEAS Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 100m SP040 Observed Temperature – Salinity – Potential Density Time Series – Upper 100m

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AMSEAS PAVE Comparisons with Observations June 2010 Ship Survey by WCZ6292 (No salinity in BT Obs so model salinity used as “data”) AMSEAS Temperature 1000m & 100m - Salinity 1000m Time Series WCZ6292 Observed Temperature 1000m & 100m - Salinity 1000m Time Series

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June 2010 TS Diagrams (all on same scales – data BLUE, AMSEAS BLACK) Entire GulfNear WellheadLoop Current SG135SG137SG515 SP040NOAA AXBTs WCZ6292

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Drifter Tracks 13 JULY 2010 In Loop Current / Franklin Eddy

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Drifter Tracks – 13 JULY Northern Gulf Near Wellhead Northern Gulf Near Wellhead

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NAVOCEANO Drifter Status – 13 JULY 2010 First Group (placed MAY) Placed on 05/20 07:20 (28.00N 88.01W) Last Position at 05/29 05:50 (27.67N 88.16W) Placed on 05/20 01:00 (28.68N 88.43W) Last Position at 06/21 19:50 (29.01N 90.02W) Placed on 05/26 10:00 (27.20N 87.56W) ** Last Position at 07/12 21:30 (25.28N 87.56W) Placed on 05/21 07:30 (28.82N 88.41W) Last Position at 06/12 22:40 (28.16N 88.39W) Placed on 05/20 10:40 (28.73N 88.28W) Last Position at 06/27 10:20 (29.13N 87.21W) Placed on 05/21 04:30 (29.20N 88.60W) Last Position at 07/10 04:00 (30.09N 88.88W) Placed on 05/25 16:20 (26.51N 87.98W) Last Position at 07/08 05:40 (25.57N 84.11W) Placed on 05/26 06:40 (26.67N 87.40W) Last Position at 07/01 21:40 (25.09N 86.00W) Placed on 05/25 21:30 (26.00N 87.01W) ** Last Position at 07/12 22:20 (25.68N 86.76W) Placed on 05/26 04:30 (26.40N 87.19W) Last Position at 06/26 00:20 (25.27N 88.23W) Placed on 05/22 09:10 (28.82N 88.19W) Last Position at 06/10 20:10 (29.12N 88.07W) Placed on 05/26 12:10 (27.59N 87.75W) Last Position at 06/28 21:10 (28.45N 89.01W) Second Group (placed 3-4 JULY) Placed on 07/04 19:20 (27.79N 89.55W) ** Last Position at 07/12 22:40 (27.28N 89.00W) Placed on 07/03 09:40 (28.34N 89.87W) ** Last Position at 07/12 22:40 (28.70N 91.57W) Placed on 07/04 08:00 (28.14N 90.00W) ** Last Position at 07/12 22:40 (28.47N 90.53W) Placed on 07/03 13:00 (27.85N 89.62W) ** Last Position at 07/12 22:40 (27.54N 89.38W) Placed on 07/03 13:50 (27.60N 89.52W) ** Last Position at 07/12 22:40 (27.50N 89.18W) Placed on 07/03 11:20 (28.05N 89.73W) ** Last Position at 07/12 22:40 (28.90N 90.00W) ** Still transmitting

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Daily AMSEAS R-NCOM Analyses for June 2010 (Using MAVE) Surface currents (entire Gulf and North) Current vertical sections to 400m Temperatures at 0, 10 and 200m Vertical sections to 1000m and 100m

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5-Day AMSEAS Surface Currents over Vertical Sections along a Diagonal Line Gulf of Mexico JUNE 2010

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5-Day AMSEAS Surface Currents – Northern Gulf JUNE 2010

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5-DAY Daily AMSEAS Surface Currents and Temperatures at 0m, 10m and 200m Gulf of Mexico JUNE 2010 Surface Currents Temperatures on Diagonal in Upper 1000m Currents on Diagonal in Upper 1000m Temperatures at 0m

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5-DAY Daily AMSEAS Surface Currents and Temperatures at 0m, 10m and 200m Gulf of Mexico JUNE 2010 Surface Currents Temperatures at 200m Temperatures at 10m Temperatures at 0m

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Daily AMSEAS Surface Currents – Gulf JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS Surface Currents – Gulf JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS Currents Slice along 140T Upper 400m JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS Currents Slice along 140T Upper 400m JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS Surface Currents – Northern Gulf JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS Surface Currents – Northern Gulf JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS Surface Temperature – Gulf JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS Surface Temperature – Gulf JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS 10m Temperature – Gulf JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS 10m Temperature – Gulf JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS 200m Temperature – Gulf JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS 200m Temperature – Gulf JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS Temperature Slice along 140T Upper 1000m JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS Temperature Slice along 140T Upper 1000m JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS Temperature Slice along 140T Upper 200m JUNE 2010

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Daily AMSEAS Temperature Slice along 140T Upper 200m JUNE 2010

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AMSEAS R-NCOM Gulf of Mexico Subset Evaluations Using AUTOMETRICS Data 01 – 30 JUNE 2010 Frank Bub 01 February 2011

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Model Evaluations – AMSEAS-GOM – Forecast Days 1 – JUNE 2010 Sonic Layer Depth (SLD) and Temperature and Salinity at Surface & 100m

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Model Evaluations – AMSEAS-GOM – Forecast Days 1 / 2 / 3 – JUNE 2010 Sonic Layer Depth (SLD) and Temperature and Salinity at Surface & 100m

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AMSEAS-NCOM – Forecast day 1 (taus 00-24) – JUNE 2010 SLD, then Temperature and Salinity at Surface, 100, 10, 50, 150, 250, 500, 1000m

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AMSEAS-GOM-NCOM Forecast Days 1 / 2 / 3 – JUNE 2010 Bias, Correlation Coefficient, RMS Difference, Acceptable Ranges Surface Salinity

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AMSEAS-GOM-NCOM Forecast Days 1 / 2 / 3 – JUNE 2010 Bias, Correlation Coefficient, RMS Difference, Acceptable Ranges Sonic Layer Depth (SLD) and Temperature, Salinity at Surface & 100m SLD Temperature 00m Salinity 00m Temperature 100m Salinity 100m

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AMSEAS-GOM-NCOM – Forecast day 1 (taus 00-24) – JUNE 2010 Temperature, Salinity, & Sound Speed Profiles, Distribution of Sonic Layer Depths

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Locations and ranges of analyzed data set Model, domain, and sub-domain name Forecast period: first 24 hours (taus 00-24), second (24-48), or third (48-72) Total number of observation-model comparisons Period of analysis (yyyymmdd) Scatter Plots Properties o Sonic Layer Depth (m) - SLD (BLUE) o Temperature (°C) at given depth (GREEN) o Salinity (psu) at given depth (BLUE) The outliers removed in terms of difference standard deviations are indicated Observations (horizontal) are plotted versus modeled (vertical). Units are indicated. Information and Interpretation – Page 1 Selected depths: Surface (0.5m) and 100m (in the thermocline) Page , 50, 150, Page , 500 and 1000m BLACK DIAGONAL indicates “perfect fit” where the observed and modeled values are equal RED DOT show location of mean observed and modeled values. To the right of the line indicates model mean is larger than observed. RED ELLIPSE shows one standard deviation of observations (horizontal axis) and model values (vertical axis) around the mean. o The larger the ellipse, the more variable the data o Circle means the variance of model is reproducing the variance of “nature” Statistics for the analysis are printed in the upper left: o Mean of model minus observed value with (standard deviation). Negative values indicates the model is under- forecasting the observation o Correlation coefficient of the comparison based on the least-squares fit. o Number of points used for this property and level o Root Mean Square of the Difference (RMSD) In the lower right: mean (standard deviation) of the o Model data o Observed data o See next section for discussion of tolerance data First page shows SLD, surface and 100m temperature and salinity for forecast days 1, 2, and 3.

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Bar Plots of Statistics Sonic Layer Depth (BLUE), Temperature at given depths (RED), salinity (GREEN) and sound speed (YELLOW) o For the first, second and third forecast days o Value printed to the right Model minus observed difference or BIAS Correlation coefficients (CC or R 2 ) Root Mean Square of the Differences (RMSD) Tolerance or Acceptable Ranges of Properties Selected tolerances o Sonic Layer Depth (±5.0 m) o Temperature (±0.5 °C) o Salinity (±0.2 psu) o Sound Speed (±2.0 m/s) Information and Interpretation – page 2 Percent of modeled minus observed points that are o Above the range or HIGH (BLUE) o Within the acceptable range or OK (GREEN) o Below the acceptable range or LOW (RED) Values are indicated to the right The best results would be all GREEN Note that a mean negative bias in the top, left plot should result in larger RED sections of the plots Taylor Plots Colors for forecast days 1 (RED), 2 (GREEN) and 3 (BLUE) The ratio of the Model to Observed Standard deviations are plotted on the radials o Perfect ratio of 1.0 lies on the “1” line o Points to the left indicate that the model variance is less than that found in the observations (nature) o Note that this corresponds to the ellipse axes on the scatter plots The correlation coefficient is indicated by the angle above the horizontal A “perfect” solution is indicated by the BLACK DOT

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Mean Profiles for the Region o Temperature o Salinity o Sound Speed Averaged by layer o Model (BLUE) and observed (RED) o One standard deviation envelope Model minus observed differences By layer Mean, standard deviation, and maximum positive (with depth) and negative difference indicated Example: -0.08°, 0.19°, +0.41° at 2500m, -0.41°C Information and Interpretation – page 3 Distribution of SLD Differences Color coded by bins o -80 -60 -40 -20 - 5 +5 +20 +40 +60 +80 o (Binning not right in this illustration) Plot each bin individually o Looking for good/bad regions

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