Presentation on theme: "Choosing Environmental Policy Area Politics-how your environmental piece of legislation became a law Science- how do different advocates use science to."— Presentation transcript:
Choosing Environmental Policy Area Politics-how your environmental piece of legislation became a law Science- how do different advocates use science to define/frame your environmental policy issue Policy- write a position paper advocating for a particular policy proposal http://www.skidmore.edu/~bturner/go231_topic.htm http://www.skidmore.edu/~bturner/go231_topic.htm
Rational Public Policy Model identify a problem identify the cause of that problem identify the magnitude or dimensions of the problem identify alternatives for solving the cause of that problems Choose alternative which will best solve the underlying cause of the problem
Nut Behind the Wheel GM "If the drivers do everything they should, there wouldn't be accidents, would there?"
ActionsIntendedUnintended UnguidedMECHANICAL CAUSE Intervening agent Brainwashed people Machines which perform ok, but cause harm ACCIDENTAL CAUSE Nature Weather, earthquakes Machines run amok Act of God PurposefulINTENTIONAL CAUSE Oppression Conspiracies Programs which work but cause harm INADVERTENT CAUSE Intervening conditions Unforeseen side effects Avoidable ignorance Carelessness/omission Consequences
Accidents- “events beyond human control” – Debate ”how human action contributes to accidents”
NSF Study Insufficient planning: New Orleans' levee designs were based on an outdated 1965 study. Engineers built the levee system with the goal of creating a system that could stand up to the worst storm possible in 200 years. Unfortunately, the study greatly miscalculated how powerful potential storms could be. Riskier design: New Orleans' levees were built to sustain the city's growth, unlike the levees in neighboring areas, which were built to provide safety. As a result, New Orleans' levees were shorter and weaker.
Safety compromised by bureaucracy: No central agency was in charge of maintaining the levees. This task instead fell to several different private firms and government agencies, leading to communication problems and the breakdown of various upgrade projects. Poor maintenance: Levees require constant upkeep. As the land in New Orleans sinks, so do the levees. Investigators also suspect that large trees growing nearby undermined the levees. Insufficient funds: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which oversees the design and construction of levees, had been hit by budget cuts. This left the agency with fewer experienced engineers.
Katrina- Complex Problem
Causal Strategies in Problem Definition To Initiate Change problem formerly interpreted as accident is result of human agency (stupidity) effects of action were intended secretly by actor (villian) low probability effects of action were accepted as calculated risk by actor (negligent) Sierra Club’s “False Advertising”
Causal Strategies in Problem Definition To maintain status quo problem is caused by accident of nature cause of problem is so complex that only large scale policy changes can alter cause Patrick J. Michaels’ “Losing It”. A condition, not a problem
Causal Stories Ownership Causal stories – Determine if problem – Assign blame/responsibility – legitimize certain actors ownership or disownership of problem BP ad- Louisiana Shrimper http://www.louisianagulfresponse.com/go/do c/3047/986971/ http://www.louisianagulfresponse.com/go/do c/3047/986971/
Who “Owns” the problem?
Who owns the problem according to Sierra Club’s False Advertising
Shift from “condition” to “problem” – caused by human actions – amenable to human intervention. cognitive dimension- something can be done moral dimension- something should be done Tell a story/narrative about who is morally responsible for fixing the problem Pre-Existing Cognitive Frames – Individual responsibility & freedom – Belief in technology/progress – Hydrofracking
Pralle- Global Warming Political Science for Environmentalists! What should the Sierra Club do? – Problem stream
24 presenters in 24 time zones
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Emphasize scientific consensus “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level” “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” IPCC defines "very likely" as greater than 90% probability of occurrence Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, IPCC, 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
American Meteorological Society: Climate Change: An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society "Indeed, strong observational evidence and results from modeling studies indicate that, at least over the last 50 years, human activities are a major contributor to climate change." (February 2007)Climate Change: An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society
American Physical Society: Statement on Climate Change "The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now." (November 2007)Statement on Climate Change
American Geophysical Union: Human Impacts on Climate "The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system—including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons—are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century." (Adopted December 2003, Revised and Reaffirmed December 2007)Human Impacts on Climate
American Association for the Advancement of Science: AAAS Board Statement on Climate Change "The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society." (December 2006)AAAS Board Statement on Climate Change
Geological Society of America: Global Climate Change "The Geological Society of America (GSA) supports the scientific conclusions that Earth’s climate is changing; the climate changes are due in part to human activities; and the probable consequences of the climate changes will be significant and blind to geopolitical boundaries." (October 2006)Global Climate Change
American Chemical Society: Statement on Global Climate Change "There is now general agreement among scientific experts that the recent warming trend is real (and particularly strong within the past 20 years), that most of the observed warming is likely due to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and that climate change could have serious adverse effects by the end of this century." (July 2004)Statement on Global Climate Change
U.S. National Academy of Sciences: Understanding and Responding to Climate Change (pdf) "The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify taking steps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." (2005)Understanding and Responding to Climate Change
Clinton Global Initiative “We look like a joke, right?..If you’re an American, the best thing you can do is to make it politically unacceptable for people to engage in denial... I mean, it makes us – we look like a joke, right? You can’t win the nomination of one of the major parties in the country if you admit that the scientists are right?“ 9/20/11
"A substantial number of scientists [have] manipulated data to keep the money rolling in," NH campaign Trail “"all one contrived phony mess that is falling apart under its own weight.“ Perry in Fed Up Grover Norquist "If Perry was president, one of the things I'd not worry about is a carbon tax. I'd worry about big spiders eating New Jersey first."
"I do believe that the issue of global warming has been politicized. I think there are a substantial number of scientists who have manipulated data so that they will have dollars rolling into their projects. I think we're seeing it almost weekly or even daily, scientists who are coming forward and questioning the original idea that man-made global warming is what is causing the climate to change. Yes, our climates change. They've been changing ever since the earth was formed.“ Rick Perry, Aug 16, 2011 NH Campaign Event
Do you think that global warming is happening
Which comes closest to your own view? 20102008 Most scientists think global warming is happening3447 Most scientists think global warming is NOT happening53 There is a lot of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening4033 Don't know enough to say2218
How important is the issue of global warming to you personally?
“IPCC Made Up Amazon Rainforest Assertions, Relied on WWF” Amplification of Global Warming by Carbon- Cycle Feedback Significantly Less than Thought, Study Suggests Amplification of Global Warming by Carbon- Cycle Feedback Significantly Less than Thought, Study Suggests
one researcher influential in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process vows to keep two sets of results from being included in the group's widely cited reports "somehow -- even if if we have to redefine what the peer review literature is."