1. © 2014 IBM Corporation Simone Bianco, IBM Almaden Research Center © 2014 IBM Corporation The Global Threat of Ebola

2. © 2014 IBM Corporation The global threat of Ebola Ebola virus an RNA virus There is no vaccine and no cure Low transmission, high virulence Transmission from contact with body fluids (blood, saliva, sweat, semen, etc.; <1m) Increased transmission after death (2-5x) A “behavioral” component Long incubation period (2-21 days); high chance that will spread from traveling carriers; contact tracing High mortality (~35% currently, >90% in previous outbreaks; ~17000 infected, >6000 deaths)

3. © 2014 IBM Corporation Modeling an Ebola outbreak response: STEM Outbreaks need prompt response Mathematical modeling of alternative scenarios Consider air and land travel Use reliable denominator data Integrate datasets (humidity, temperature, wind, etc.) Make reliable predictions at both local and global level Free and open source (IBM to Eclipse foundation, US AF-SGO)

4. © 2014 IBM Corporation Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease: Ebola

5. © 2014 IBM Corporation Global threat of the West Africa Ebola outbreak

6. © 2014 IBM Corporation Extensions Ongoing Contact mapping (with US Naval Research Lab, IBM Kenya Lab, Gov't of Sierra Leone) Behavioral/social components and their effect (with US Naval Research Lab and College of William and Mary) Proposed Introduce vaccine (different strategies) Strategic deployment of resources “What if” scenarios: - What if the infection can be transmitted before symptoms show? - What if the infection increases/decreases in transmission/virulence - What if the disease mutates and becomes resistant to drugs -...

7. © 2014 IBM Corporation Example: Changing hospitalization/burial rates Hu, Bianco, Edlund, Kaufman, under review on PloS Currents: Outbreaks

8. © 2014 IBM Corporation Facilitating contact tracing: Citizen engagement Education and citizen engagement based on analytics of transcribed voice calls and SMS messages sourced directly from citizens Partnering with Open Government Initiative (OGI) in collaboration with researchers on the Africa’s Voices program at Cambridge University, Echo Mobile, and telephone companies and radio broadcasting stations in Sierra Leone. Assess the effectiveness (understanding) of current public service announcements (PSAs) (as expressed in local language) Identify possible barriers to target behavior (from the PSAs) and feedback to CDC, Govt, MSF, Red Cross, etc.

9. © 2014 IBM Corporation Visualizing SMS/voice reporting (Freetown, SL)

10. © 2014 IBM Corporation Preliminary impact (September 24-October 8) – Sierra Leone Compared to the previous report (September 19-23): Higher number of reported dead bodies (2-3 times increase in reporting) 150 sick people identified 350 dead bodies reported and picked up 50 suspected Ebola cases identified

11. © 2014 IBM Corporation Global IBM Ebola initiatives STEM https://www.eclipse.org/stem/ https://www.eclipse.org/stem/ Citizen Engagement through SMS/Voice Ebola OpenData Jam and repository http://eboladata.org/ http://eboladata.org/ Coordination Technology to Nigeria Weekly Ebola Scientific community call https://wiki.eclipse.org/Weekly_Community_Ebola_Modeling_Phone_Call https://wiki.eclipse.org/Weekly_Community_Ebola_Modeling_Phone_Call Africa Health Care Delivery System Data Set Public Health Solution for Disease Surveillance and Management (w GBS Canada support

12. © 2014 IBM Corporation Thank you!

13. © 2014 IBM Corporation Additional Slides

14. © 2014 IBM Corporation Example: Changing hospitalization/burial rates Hu, Bianco, Edlund, Kaufman, under review on PloS Currents: Outbreaks

15. © 2014 IBM Corporation Example: Changing hospitalization/burial rates Hu, Bianco, Edlund, Kaufman, under review on PloS Currents: Outbreaks

16. © 2014 IBM Corporation Ebola community weekly call https://wiki.eclipse.org/Weekly_Community_Ebola_Modeling_Phone_Call