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Good morning WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Review and Business-of-the-Day Martin Miles, Co-Chair Environmental Systems Analysis Research.

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Presentation on theme: "Good morning WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Review and Business-of-the-Day Martin Miles, Co-Chair Environmental Systems Analysis Research."— Presentation transcript:

1 Good morning WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Review and Business-of-the-Day Martin Miles, Co-Chair Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC) Boulder, Colorado Jean-Claude Gascard Pierre Universitregg

2 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM I.Component presentations and discussion Wednesday a.m. and early p.m., plenum II.Integration/synthesis presentations and discussion Wednesday p.m., plenum and groups III.Gaps and needs – recommended steps discussion Thursday a.m., plenum Agenda

3 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Individually: DId you get something useful out of the meeting? Learn something? Meet someone? Plan something? Start something? Measures of Success

4 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Individually: DId you get something useful out of the meeting? Learn something? Meet someone? Plan something? Start something? Collectively: Will others – scientific community, agencies – get something useful out of it? Measures of Success

5 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM III. Lessons from 2007: Gaps and Needs for Understanding Arctic Change 8:30 a.m.Welcome, review of Wednesday discussions, and today's goal Martin Miles, ESARC Jean-Claude Gascard, Université Pierre et Marie Curie 9:00 a.m.Presentations and Discussion focused on: · What lessons can be learned from 2007 to guide future science activities? · What is needed in additional capacity and plans for observing the 2008 season (and beyond) to improve our understanding, and response strategies to arctic-system change? Specific needs relating back to the AON and Lagrangian workhops? 10:00 BREAK 10:30 a.m.Conclusions, recommendations, and next steps: · Given the unexpected changes witnessed in 2007, what are the priorities for observing, understanding, and responding to change activities? · How should these priorities be addressed? What are the next steps? Discussion of workshop products (synthesis papers and other products), next steps, and writing assignments Agenda

6 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Review and Charge Martin Miles, Co-Chair Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC) Boulder, Colorado 1. Review of Sessions I and II

7 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Review and Charge Martin Miles, Co-Chair Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC) Boulder, Colorado 1.Review of Session I – Component talks  Sea ice, atmosphere and ocean  Terrestrial and human

8 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Component-level data and understanding WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Component / sub-system Sea-ice extent summer minimum Sea-ice export and melt Sea ice preconditioning (low concentration, less MY vs. FY, ice thickness) Lower troposphere – temp. and precip. Atmospheric circulation Clouds and aerosols (radiation) Arctic Ocean – SST and heat content Marine ecosystem (lower and higher-level) Terrestrial ecosystem / vegetation / land-cover Terrestrial hydrology (rivers and lakes) Greenland ice-sheet Other terrestrial Human response and other HD Spatial Temporal Quant.

9 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Review and Charge Martin Miles, Co-Chair Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC) Boulder, Colorado 1.Review of Session II – Synthesis / modeling talks and discussions

10 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM  Related to goals for the workshop Charge: Goals for today

11 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM 1. Evaluate present knowledge  Observing  Understanding Workshop Goals

12 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM 2.Improve integration: cross-disciplinary and national / international  Exchange information on ongoing research efforts  Identify strategy for cross-boundary collaborations Workshop Goals

13 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM 3.Produce an integrated overview of the summer 2007 sea-ice minimum, including prospects for continued decline or recovery  Observing  Understanding Workshop Goals

14 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM 4. Produce recommendations for addressing gaps in data and system understanding, to guide near- and long-term science activities  Observing  Understanding  Responding Workshop Goals

15 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM 1. Produce recommendations for addressing gaps in data and system understanding, to guide near- and long-term science activities – and strategy integration of efforts – to guide near- and long-term science activities  Gaps-and-needs discussion and subsequent efforts  Deliverable: Report Outcomes and Deliverables

16 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM 2. Produce an integrated overview of the summer 2007 sea-ice minimum, including prospects for continued decline or recovery  Component talks, synthesis and subsequent efforts  Deliverable: Synthesis paper(s); Forecast/projection Outcomes and Deliverables

17 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM 2. Presentations and Discussion on WGs 1) Through modeling and data analysis activities – including retrospective analyses of the long-term observational record – how well do we understand 2007? What are the gaps in observing and understanding sea- ice loss and related changes? 2) What do modeling and data analysis tell us about overall system behavior that is relevant for predicting sea ice – on seasonal to decadal time scales – and related arctic changes? How does the “tipping point” concept factor in? 3) What are the science / policy / human implications of the unexpected, faster-than-forecast changes? What does this mean for responding to change?

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19 WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM 3) What are the science / policy / human implications of the unexpected, faster-than-forecast changes? What does this mean for responding to change? Synthesis of 2007: Discussion Themes


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