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BAE Systems Australia Tracey Clavell Head of Estimating and Pricing – Corporate Defence Cost Estimating Conference Adelaide July 2011 1DCEC July 2011 Commercial.

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Presentation on theme: "BAE Systems Australia Tracey Clavell Head of Estimating and Pricing – Corporate Defence Cost Estimating Conference Adelaide July 2011 1DCEC July 2011 Commercial."— Presentation transcript:

1 BAE Systems Australia Tracey Clavell Head of Estimating and Pricing – Corporate Defence Cost Estimating Conference Adelaide July 2011 1DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence

2 Quotes from Wikipedia Estimation is the calculated approximation of a result which is usable even if input data may be incomplete or uncertain.calculatedapproximationuncertain In statistics,statistics estimation theory and estimator, for topics involving inferences about probability distributionsestimation theoryestimatorprobability distributions forecasting and prediction, for estimation of yet-to-be observed quantitiesforecastingprediction In mathematics, approximation or estimation typically means finding upper or lower bounds of a quantity that cannot readily be computed preciselymathematicsapproximationupper or lower bounds Commercial in Confidence2

3 End to End Estimating at BAE Systems Australia Commercial in Confidence3

4 Cradle to Grave Estimating Commercial in Confidence4 Processes People & Professionalisation Tools Subcontracts / Suppliers CCP &EAC’s VOP PBC Pre ContractPost Contract 1st Pass2nd Pass DCP Design Subcontracts / Suppliers VOP PBC FIS Techniques & Metrics

5 DCEC July 20115 Estimating Techniques Commercial in Confidence Top Down Vs Bottom up Multiple Methods Metrics Risk and Uncertainty Three Point Estimating

6 6 Parametric Detailed Analogy Parametric Detailed Analogous Little Confidence 1 method per bid More Confidence Multiple methods per bid Multiple methods of Estimating DCEC July 2011Commercial in Confidence

7 7 True Planning – Top Down Parametric Estimating Commercial in ConfidenceDCEC July 2011

8 Types of Parametric Estimating Should Costs for Subcontracts / Suppliers Design for Cost Cost as an Independent Variable Top Down Validation Cost Benefit Analysis 8DCEC July 2011Commercial in Confidence

9 Benefits of Parametric Estimating Supports Bid / No Bid decisions Supports Strategic Reform Program To validate / challenge Subcontractor quotes Supports initial design costing Additional validation point for other methods Quicker to generate ROMs and Indicative Pricing Commercial in Confidence9DCEC July 2011

10 Parametric Journey Thus Far 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 Maturity Tool Calibration Demand Hardware trg & Licenses True Planning plus ICT trg & Licenses Logistics Training & Licences Evaluation of Software License & trg 10 DCEC July 2011 Commercial in Confidence

11 People and Developing Capability Standard Position Descriptions Developing You Program Competency Matrix Career Ladder External membership and accreditation Diversity and Inclusion Mentoring and Leadership 11Commercial in ConfidenceDCEC July 2011

12 Estimating & Pricing Tools True Planning - Parametric Estimating Phoenix - Estimating Capture Tool Open Plan – Scheduling ProPricer – Pricing Tool Predict – Risk Collation and Monte Carlo 12Commercial in ConfidenceDCEC July 2011

13 13 Phoenix – Estimating Capture Tool Commercial in Confidence DCEC July 2011

14 Lessons Learned DAREO Stability & Sensitivity Management of the Supply Chain Indexation & Cost Principles Demonstrate Value for Money Performance Based Contracting 14 Commercial in ConfidenceDCEC July 2011

15 End to End Estimating – Getting the Balance Right Commercial in Confidence15

16 All Done Any Questions ? 16Commercial in ConfidenceDCEC July 2011


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