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Sustainability at Home and Away Part 1 Dexter Chapin & 21 Acres.

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1 Sustainability at Home and Away Part 1 Dexter Chapin & 21 Acres

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3 Introductions Who are we? Why are we here? What do we hope to get out of this experience? My objective: To increase your historicity. There are three parts to historicity Technical knowledge (how to intervene) Worldview that give meaning to the intervention (Social/fiscal capital to underwrite the intervention)

4 What does it mean to be sustainable? What is unsustainability? ___________________________ ___________________________ ___________________________ ___________________________ ___ What is sustainability? ___________________________ ___________________________ ___________________________ ___________________________ ___

5 A Sustainable System Produces 3 domains: Food, Water, Air. Food is not just pancakes and syrup. It involves biodiversity, and is the crux of a food, water, energy subsystem of giant proportions Water is water; it is food, and it is energy. It is old and it is rare. Air is Oxygen, but not pollution; it is energy, but not climate change. Has 3 legs, Ecology, Economy, and Equity. Ecology asks if the system contravenes the Natural order. In a more positive light, does the system do Biomimicry. Economy asks if the system’s long term payback is sufficient to offset immediate internal costs. Equity asks if all the costs are internalized. “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” Brundtland Commission of the United Nations,1987 Brundtland CommissionUnited Nations

6 Report of the IUCN Renowned Thinkers Meeting, 29–31 January A Sustainable System

7 Measures of Sustainability GDP is Gross Domestic Product or in the equation, “Y” (Y) is a sum of Consumption (C), Investment (I), Government Spending (G) and Net Exports (X (exports) – M (imports) ). Y = C + I + G + (X − M) GDP does not address Ecology nor Equity. And according to JFK, it does not measure any of the things that make life worth living … the world’s economic superpower, the United States, has achieved striking economic and technological progress over the past half century without gains in the self-reported happiness of the citizenry. Instead, uncertainties and anxieties are high, social and economic inequalities have widened considerably, social trust is in decline, and confidence in government is at an all-time low. Perhaps for these reasons, life satisfaction has remained nearly constant during decades of rising Gross National Product (GNP) per capita. eport.pdf

8 Not-so-Random Factiods America uses about 15 times more energy per person than does the typical developing country. Americans represent only 5% of the world's population, but generate 30% of the world's garbage. Two-thirds of the energy from coal, gas and nuclear power generation in North America is wasted in the form of heat that’s vented up smoke stacks and cooling towers. sustainability-facts/ phones/

9 Not-so-random Factoids 2 no-credibility-science-one-pie-chart

10 How did we get here? Reductionist (Newtonian) Science has been a powerful approach to understanding the world. However, it ignores many questions and issues. An alternative is systems thinking, analysis, and dynamics focused on the interactions rather than the bits and pieces. What is the GHI? The Gross (National) Happiness Index does measure those things (making life worthwhile). Developed in Bhutan in 1972, the GHI uses nine domains & 33 measures of satisfaction with governance, the relationship with the environment, economic satisfaction, and a sense of cultural and national belonging to measure national levels of happiness. GHI DomainsIndicators Psychological well-being 4 Health4 Time Use2 Education4 Cultural Diversity & Resilience4 Governance4 Community Vitality4 Ecological Diversity & Resilience4 Living Standards4

11 GHI Indicators Economic Wellness: Indicated via direct survey and statistical measurement of economic metrics such as consumer debt, average income to consumer price index ratio and income distribution. Environmental Wellness: Indicated via direct survey and statistical measurement of environmental metrics such as pollution, noise and traffic. Physical Wellness: Indicated via statistical measurement of physical health metrics such as severe illnesses. Mental Wellness: Indicated via direct survey and statistical measurement of mental health metrics such as usage of antidepressants and rise or decline of psychotherapy patients Workplace Wellness: Indicated via direct survey and statistical measurement of labor metrics such as job change, unemployment claims, workplace complaints and lawsuits. Social Wellness: Indicated via direct survey and statistical measurement of social metrics such as discrimination, safety, divorce rates, complaints of domestic conflicts and family lawsuits, public lawsuits, crime rates. Political Wellness: Indicated via direct survey and statistical measurement of political metrics such as the quality of local democracy, individual freedom, and foreign conflicts.

12 Thrivancy or Applied Happiness GHI indicators are great for Nation /States but what about smaller groups? Thrivancy is the ability to thrive, make steady progress; prosper, or flourish. Domains: appreciation, generosity, interest, lightness, and easy provide a framework for thrivancy indicators. Appreciation There are accessible spaces in the community that offer natural and crafted beauty. Community celebrations feature public appreciation for community success stories. Generosity People know others in the community they can offer help to and request help from People share and volunteer their talents and stories with others in the community. Interest There are always new things and people to discover in the community There are classes, workshops, and learning events available in the community Lightness There is evidence of spontaneous interactions and gatherings in the community It is common to see smiles, hear live music and see children playing in the community Easy People have easy access to good schools, health care, jobs, and fresh food and water in the community It is easy for visitors and residents to find what they’re looking for in the community. community-happiness-indicators/

13 GNHI Resources appiness%20Report.pdf GNH-Index-final1.pdf Others national-happiness/ /1 The Sustainable Economy, Yvon Chouinard, Jib Ellison, and Rick Ridgeway, Harvard Business Review, October 2011 The Economics Of Well-Being; Have we found a better gauge of success than GDP? Justin Fox, Harvard Business Review, January/ February 2012 Thrivancy Resources of-happiness.html in-community-happiness-indicators/ 5

14 Applications Mystery indicator: sustainability/ sustainability/ More detailed evidence: Applications Compare the contributions of any large, chain supermarket to that made by a farmers’ market to the GHI. Where do you land? Take a happiness survey at During the week, consider the role of food in the raising or lowering the GHI.

15 Food Thrivancy is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition of a sustainable system. Sufficiency requires food, water, and air, supported by ecology, economy, and equity. We may live without poetry, music and art. We may live without conscience, and live without heart. We may live without friends; we may live without books. But civilized man cannot live without cooks. Edward Robert Bulwer-Lytton

16 Food 2 Agriculture is an attempt to tame natural systems to produce inexpensive, nutritious, and sustainable food. A simplified representation of the differences between a sustainable system and an unsustainable system at a macro level might be:

17 Sustainable

18 Unsustainable

19 Sustainable Vs Unsustainable Off-site consumption reduces levels of soil humus and reduces water infiltration and holding thereby increasing nutrient loss. Extensive and abundant use of inorganic fertilizers does not improve soil fertility and structure over the long term. ater.htm ater.htm Off-site consumption only makes sense with a monoculture that demands toxins.

20 Non random Factoids And about 550bn cubic metres of water is wasted globally in growing crops that never reach the consumer. the demand for water in food production could reach 10–13 trillion cubic metres a year by This is 2.5 to 3.5 times greater than the total human use of fresh water today. world-food-waste?intcmp=122

21 At Thanksgiving, many sat down to eat food that traveled between 1,500 and 2,500 miles. Lettuce from the Salinas Valley and shipped to Washington, D.C. requires about 36 times as many calories in transport as it provides in food energy. you can't grow food or develop water sources without energy which is why higher food prices and rapidly rising oil are tightly linked jeremy-grantham-warns-of-coming-dystopia/

22 Wasted Food We throw away food; the estimate is about 50 percent more food per person than in the mid-'70s, or about 40% of the total harvested or produced. truth-about-food-waste-in-america truth-about-food-waste-in-america content/uploads/2012/08/FTFin-FoodWaste.jpeg content/uploads/2012/08/FTFin-FoodWaste.jpeg

23 Not just veggies it's estimated that one-third of all fish stocks globally have collapsed-- having less than 10% of their maximum observed population-- and that at current fishing rates all fish stocks worldwide will collapse by mid-century. A full three-quarters of the world's fisheries are now either collapsed, over-exploited, significantly depleted, or recovering from being over-exploited. overfishing-what-can-we-do-to-stop-it.html

24 64% of U.S. agricultural land is dedicated to livestock feed. Top five Global Crops: Corn, Wheat, Rice, Potatoes, Cassava, Soybeans. Top four U.S.: Corn (80% for livestock), Soybeans (over 50% global production, for livestock, oils, etc), Hay (livestock), Wheat (13% global production, 22% for livestock) Nearly three-quarters of U.S. farm workers earn less than $10,000 per year …ranks in the top ten of most dangerous jobs in the U.S.

25 2.2 pounds of beef is responsible for the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide emitted by the average European car every 155 miles,… greenhouse-hamburger greenhouse-hamburger Top five Global Crops: Corn, Wheat, Rice, Potatoes, Cassava, Soybeans. Top four U.S.: Corn (80% for livestock), Soybeans (over 50% global production, for livestock, oils, etc), Hay (livestock), Wheat (13% global production, 22% for livestock)

26 Farms are exempted from federal water-pollution regulation. Agriculture (live stock) is the biggest single reason America’s rivers and streams fail to meet Clean Water Act standards California officials identify agriculture, including cows, as the major source of nitrate pollution in more than 100,000 square miles of polluted groundwater.

27 So what do we do? Why bother? The why bother question comes down to a moral imperative: “Once our personal connection to what is wrong becomes clear, then we have to choose: we can go on as before, recognizing our dishonesty and living with it the best we can, or we can begin the effort to change the way we think and live.” archive/why-bother/

28 History gives us an alternative: During WWll, Victory Gardens provided about 40% on our food. It is all about taking back responsibility and control of our own food supply. Each effort represents one step towards freeing ourselves from the forces that would keep us dependent on a system of petroleum fueled and factory farmed food.

29 Potato Box Grow 100 lbs in 4 sqft tipnut.com › DIY ProjectsDIY Projects

30 Straw Bale Garden

31 Window Gardens

32 Honey Bees _031005_05.jpg

33 Summary It’s estimated that the way we feed ourselves (or rather, allow ourselves to be fed) accounts for about a fifth of the greenhouse gas for which each of us is responsible. bother/

34 Applications Recipes for what you have encan_packlist.html encan_packlist.html

35 Water Water is Life’s mater and matrix, mother and medium. There is no life without water. – Albert Szent-Gyorgyi – The source and age of the Earth’s water supply is constantly being revised. But much of today’s water is 4.3 billion years old. – New water seems to come from Volcanoes, lightning, and comet snowballs.

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37 Where is the Water? 70 percent of freshwater is locked in ice caps Less than 1 percent of the world's freshwater is readily accessible 6 countries (Brazil, Russia, Canada, Indonesia, China and Colombia) have 50 percent of the world's freshwater reservesIndonesia One-third of the world's population lives in "water-stressed" countries, defined as a country’s ratio of water consumption to water availability. Countries labeled as moderate to high stress consume 20 percent more water than their available supply. There is much more freshwater stored in the ground than there is in liquid form on the surface, according to the USGS. on-earth.html on-earth.html

38 Where is the Water? 70 percent of freshwater is locked in ice caps Less than 1 percent of the world's freshwater is readily accessible 6 countries (Brazil, Russia, Canada, Indonesia, China and Colombia) have 50 percent of the world's freshwater reservesIndonesia One-third of the world's population lives in "water-stressed" countries, defined as a country’s ratio of water consumption to water availability. Countries labeled as moderate to high stress consume 20 percent more water than their available supply. There is much more freshwater stored in the ground than there is in liquid form on the surface, according to the USGS. on-earth.html on-earth.html

39 Where is the Water? 70 percent of freshwater is locked in ice caps Less than 1 percent of the world's freshwater is readily accessible 6 countries (Brazil, Russia, Canada, Indonesia, China and Colombia) have 50 percent of the world's freshwater reservesIndonesia One-third of the world's population lives in "water-stressed" countries, defined as a country’s ratio of water consumption to water availability. Countries labeled as moderate to high stress consume 20 percent more water than their available supply. There is much more freshwater stored in the ground than there is in liquid form on the surface, according to the USGS. on-earth.html on-earth.html

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42 Depressing Facts America must spend $255 billion in the next five years to prevent deterioration of water infrastructure. We plan to spend half that amount. Parts of America use up to 80% of their available freshwater resources. Californians look forward to a fourth straight year of serious drought. Transporting water is impractical, even within the U.S. The process of delivering water from the San Francisco Bay-Delta to Southern California uses 2 to 3 percent of all electricity consumed in the state. (http://www.nrdc.org/water/conservation/edrain/execsum. asp) Globally, 1.2 billion people live in areas with inadequate water supply. 1.6 billion live in areas where there is water, but they can't afford to drink it. Water use is increasing much faster than population. Global water demands will increase by 40% in the next ten years.

43 continued By 2025, two-thirds of the world will live under conditions of water scarcity. Two-thirds of the cities in China suffer from water shortages. Clean water is even more rare. India WILL run out of water in the near future. Desalination is only practical for small countries with extreme wealth. Green tech may provide a way past peak oil. There is no escape from peak water. about-the-coming-water-crisis

44 "A shortage of water resources could spell increased conflicts in the future. Population growth will make the problem worse. So will climate change. As the global economy grows, so will its thirst. Many more conflicts lie just over the horizon." -- Ban Ki-Moon

45 Water and Energy Average household uses 127,000 gallons per year. Most in the form of energy costs. Under the Bush administration, fracking was granted an exemption from federal clean water regulations and disclosure rules, making it virtually impossible to quantify risks and impacts beyond local, anecdotal evidence. Clean Technica (http://s.tt/1kr6e) Clean Technicahttp://s.tt/1kr6e Can you do this with your tap water Sy4A Sy4A

46 Investing in Water T Boone Pickens etc The world uses 2.1 trillion cubic meters of water every year. That's 17.5 million gallons of water every second. To put that in perspective, we use 41,000 gallons of oil every second. North Americans use 1,280 cubic meters Europeans and Australians use 694 cubic meters Asians use 535 cubic meters South Americans use 311 cubic meters Africans use 186 cubic meters investments

47 Climate Change and Water Although responsibility for the causes of climate change rests primarily with the developed and industrialised nations, the costs of climate change will be borne most directly by the poor. esources_1.pdf esources_1.pdf Climate Change Impact

48 Temp rise (°C) WaterFoodHealthLandEnvironment Abrupt and Large- Scale Impacts 1°C1°C Small glaciers in the Andes disappear completely, threatening water supplies for 50 million people Modest increases in cereal yields in temperate regions At least 300,000 people each year die from climate related diseases (predominantly diarrhoea, malaria, and malnutrition) Reduction in winter mortality in higher latitudes (Northern Europe, USA) Permafrost thawing damages buildings and roads in parts of Canada and Russia At least 10 percent of land species facing extinction (according to one estimate) 80 percent bleaching of coral reefs, including Great Barrier Reef Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation starts to weaken 2°C2°C Potentially percent decrease in water availability in some vulnerable regions, e.g. Southern Africa and Mediterranean Sharp declines in crop yield in tropical regions ( percent in Africa) 40 – 60 million more people exposed to malaria in Africa Up to 10 million more people affected by coastal flooding each year 15 – 40 percent of species facing extinction (according to one estimate). High risk of extinction of Arctic species, including polar bear and caribou Potential for Greenland ice sheet to begin melting irreversibly, accelerating sea level rise and committing world to an eventual 7m sea level rise. Rising risk of abrupt changes to atmospheric circulations, e.g. the monsoon. 3°C3°C In Southern Europe, serious droughts occur once every 10 years 1 – 4 billion more people suffer water shortages, while 1 – 5 billion gain water, which may increase flood risk additional millions at risk of hunger (if carbon fertilisation weak) Agricultural yields in higher latitudes likely to peak 1 – 3 million more people die from malnutrition (if carbon fertilisation weak) 1 – 170 million more people affected by coastal flooding each year 20 – 50 percent of species facing extinction (according to one estimate), including 25 – 60 percent mammals, 30 – 40 percent birds and 15 – 70 percent butterflies in South Africa. Onset of Amazon forest collapse (some models only) 4°C4°C Potentially percent decrease in water availability in Southern Africa and Mediterranean Agricultural yields decline by percent in Africa, and entire regions out of production (e.g. parts of Australia) Up to 80 million more people exposed to malaria in Africa 7 – 300 million more people affected by coastal flooding each year Loss of around half Arctic tundra. Around half of all the world’s nature reserves cannot fulfil objectives 5°C5°C Possible disappearance of large glaciers in Himalayas, affecting one- quarter of China’s population and hundreds of millions in India Continued increase in ocean acidity seriously disrupting marine ecosystems and possibly fish stocks Sea level rise threatens small islands, low-lying coastal areas (Florida) and major world cities such as New York, London, and Tokyo More than 5°C The latest science suggests that the Earth’s average temperature will rise by even more than 5 or 6°C if emissions continue to grow and positive feedbacks amplify the warming effect of greenhouse gases (e.g. release of carbon dioxide from soils or methane from permafrost). This level of global temperature rise would be equivalent to the amount of warming that occurred between the last age and today – and is likely to lead to major disruption and large- scale movement of population. Such “socially contingent” effects could be catastrophic, but are currently very hard to capture with current models as temperatures would be so far outside human experience. Notes: As colours move from yellow to red, they indicate increasing severity of impacts. This table shows illustrative impacts at different degrees of warming. Some of the uncertainty is captured in the ranges shown, but there will be additional uncertainties about the exact size of impacts (more detail in Box 3.2). Temperatures represent increases relative to pre-industrial levels. At each temperature, the impacts are expressed for a 1°C band around the central temperature, e.g. 1°C represents the range 0.5 – 1.5°C etc. Numbers of people affected at different temperatures assume population and GDP scenarios for the 2080s from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Figures generally assume adaptation at the level of an individual or firm, but not economy- wide adaptations due to policy intervention (covered in Part V). Source: Stern Review, Chapter 3.

49 Salt Water Fish provide over 2.6 billion people with at least 20% of their total animal protein intake. it is the ocean that makes our planet habitable. Without the ocean as a heat sink, our days would be unbearably hot, and our nights would be freezing cold. The Pacific patch is 1,700 miles across at various depths and located between the California Coast and Hawaii. The smaller Atlantic Patch is located between Bermuda and the Azores.

50 Salt Water 2 Phytoplankton, half of all plant matter around the globe, have been dying off for at least a century, with a staggering 40% decline since The harvest in Alaska represents about 80% of the total wild- caught North American harvest of salmon, harvests from Canada representing about 15%, and harvests from Pacific Northwest states representing about 5%. [1]CanadaPacific Northwest [1]

51 Local Water The District purchases all its water supply from the City of Seattle for distribution to its customers. The majority of our water comes from the Tolt River Reservoir but occasionally we receive water from the Cedar River Reservoir.Tolt River ReservoirCedar River Reservoir Future growth anticipates a combined customer base of 25,000 sewer and water connections by the year 2020 Vs approximately 13,00 at present. Seattle water:

52 Applications a dripping faucet can waste up to 20 gallons of water per day, while a leaking toilet can use 3000 gallons per day. Upgrade Your Fixtures: low- volume toilets, low-flow aerated faucets. Collect rainwater: roof sqft X 0.6 X 35 = gallons per year Increase permeability; less lawn, more xeriscaping. Harvesting rainwater for landscaping:

53 Water footprints Pacific Northwest Clean Water Challenge Privatization? profit-privatization-of-water-is-as-benign-as-lucifer profit-privatization-of-water-is-as-benign-as-lucifer ent&view=article&id=715&Itemid=1202 ent&view=article&id=715&Itemid=1202

54 Biofuels? It takes 30 gallons of irrigation water to produce enough corn ethanol in Nebraska to drive a typical car one mile. We never know the worth of water till the well is dry. ~Thomas Fuller, Gnomologia, 1732 Pure water is the world's first and foremost medicine. ~Slovakian Proverb

55 Energy / Air The connection between Energy and Air is about pollution and climate change. Pollution may be getting better.

56 More than 3 million people, a record number, suffered premature deaths from air pollution in 2010 Vs 800,000 in disease3 million people

57 Climate Change The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, see box 2.1) defines climate change as, “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”.

58 Climate Change 2 Climate change is the perfect storm; it is genuinely global, profoundly intergenerational, and occurs in a setting where we lack robust theory and institutions to guide us. e360.yale.edu/feature/the_ethical_dimension_of.../2456/

59 Last full month in which the average daily temperature did not exceed twentieth-century norms: 2/1985

60 Alternatives; Solar

61 Wind Congress passed a small-wind tax credit that gives individuals and businesses a $4,000 investment tax credit for the purchase of turbinessmall-wind tax credit new/motorwind/index.html new/motorwind/index.html More and more people are coming to the realisation that small domestic wind turbines fitted onto the ends or roofs of properties can never be economical, and that turbine induced vibrations passing through masonary are both annoyingly noisy and potentially structurally damaging.

62 Applications #1, get aP3 International P4400 Kill A Watt Electricity Usage Monitor. Rewire your meter into the front hall. Use switched power cords to eliminate phantom loads Costco has rebates on LED’s Clean the refrigerator and fill with water

63 Where have we been? Why talk about GHI and thrivancy at the beginning? A sustainable system is a complex, adaptive system with constant trade-offs and compromises. All the simple answers (recycling coke cans) are being done. The new answers are more difficult (Do we really wish to use valuable water to drive a car?)

64 Ashby’s Law If you wish to monitor a system your variety must equal the system’s variety. Variety and only variety can absorb variety. At a small Scale thrivancy provides the kind of variety required to monitor the variety of ways of being (un)sustainable. Consider, mutatis mutandis, looking at thrivancy on a personal level. What does this have to do with your historicity?

65 Ref’s Pesticides – Food facts – Food Prices and social stability food-prices-are-impacting-the-world Climate Change = global food 05/drought-stalks-the-global-food-supply Gardens against climate change gardens King County Extension Will Allen; Urban Farmer Valuing Natural Capital /offline/download.pdf

66 Climate Change and Water esources_1.pdf esources_1.pdf Water food energy nexus _embedded _embedded Washington water readiness Harvesting water for landscaping Water conservation (you know this) Energy without hot air Carbon Footprint e&s_ce=normal&s_med=ppc&s_dis=search&s_cs=text&s_cid=Carbo n+Calculator+- +Carbon+Related&s_ag=Carbon+Footprint&s_kwd=carbon%20footp rint&s_mt=p&gclid=CPGg86eF0acCFQM6gwodvjo3Dg e&s_ce=normal&s_med=ppc&s_dis=search&s_cs=text&s_cid=Carbo n+Calculator+- +Carbon+Related&s_ag=Carbon+Footprint&s_kwd=carbon%20footp rint&s_mt=p&gclid=CPGg86eF0acCFQM6gwodvjo3Dg 1 block off the grid

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