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Impact Analysis of the Maryland Marcellus Shale Safe Drilling Initiative Daraius Irani, PhD, Executive Director Jessica Daniels Varsa, AICP, LEED AP, Senior Research Associate August 26, 2013
Overview Review of Study Goals Review of Work Plan and Timeline Overview of Analyses and Tools Questions © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research
Review of Study Goals 1.Quantify the economic and community impacts 2.Deliver analyses and associated findings 3.Acknowledge and understand the local context © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research
Review of Work Plan and Timeline © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research DeliveredDue Draft Outline August 9, 2013 Final Outline September 9, 2013 Draft Report March 14, 2014 Final Outline May 9, 2014 Stakeholder Engagement June 14 & 15, 2013 In-Person Survey August 13 – 15, 2013 Online Survey End of September Survey Analysis End of October Hedonic Price Analysis End of November Economic Impact Analysis End of January Fiscal Impact Analysis End of January Community Impact Analysis End of January
Stakeholder Engagement: Purpose To learn more about the local economy and what might be impacted o RESI met with 42 individuals representing 24 groups and businesses from Allegany and Garrett Counties o Groups represented local government, property owners, tourism, recreation, agriculture, and other impacted groups To identify major concerns of the local community © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research
Stakeholder Engagement: Major Concerns Infrastructure © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research Education, Public Health & Safety, and Roads Regulation, Local Business, Property Rights, and Housing Watersheds, Forest Area, Viewsheds, and Wildlife Habitat Local Economy Environment
Community Survey Purpose: To provide RESI with variables to quantify nonmarket impacts of potential drilling in Garrett and Allegany Counties Administration: online and in-person Progress: 150 responses to date Goal: 300 to 500 responses by end of September © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research
Survey Format 30 Questions Environmental Usage Residence Hypothetical Scenario Demographic Information © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research
Survey Locations Garrett County Oakland Farmers’ Market Shop n Save Fresh Swallow Falls State Park Deep Creek Lake Wisp Adventure Park Downtown Oakland © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research Allegany County Cumberland Farmers’ Market Downtown Cumberland
Online Survey The online survey is LIVE and available on the Garrett County website and at this hyperlink http://resisurvey.resiusa.org/surveydata/ContingentValuation.htm © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research
Impacts Impacts of shale gas drilling experienced by other states Impacts of special interest identified by residents Potential community impacts Potential economic and fiscal impacts © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research
Community Impacts Discussed © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research Housing Transportation Recreation/tourism Land use Rural character
Community Impacts Quantified Changes in demand resulting from permanent and transitory workers impacting Housing Truck traffic on local roadways Public health services Infrastructure © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research
Community Impact Mapping: Constraints Map GIS-based map used to depict constraints Existing wells Historic lease data Sensitive lands Setbacks © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research
Economic and Fiscal Impacts Economic Impact Analysis Three key factors will be quantified for three scenarios: low, mid, high o Employment o Wages o Output Inputs: Nonmarket and Market Values Fiscal Impact Analysis State and Local tax impacts o Investment phase o Operation phase © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research Employment, Wages, and Output ConsumptionInvestmentExpenditures
Market vs. Nonmarket Impacts Market Impacts Values that can be readily observed in the marketplace Measures the reduction or benefit from Shale Drilling in the area © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research Nonmarket Impacts Values cannot be readily observed Measures the reduction in environmental goods resulting from natural gas production “Willingness-to-pay”
Scenarios and Tools Low, mid, and high drilling scenario o Low – no drilling, preliminary baseline o Mid – medium level of drilling extraction, based on averages o High – highest level of drilling extraction IMPLAN and REMI PI+ © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research IMPLANREMI PI+ Comprehensive Analysis
Assumptions Production potential Number of wells and wells per pad Location of well pads and well infrastructure Production curve/well lifespan Rate and pace of drilling © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research
Question & Answer © Towson University, Division of Innovation & Applied Research
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