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The Future of Wireless Keynote Talk IEEE Wireless Communications Networks Conference – WCNC 2010 19 April 2010 Sydney, Australia Adam Drobot President,

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Presentation on theme: "The Future of Wireless Keynote Talk IEEE Wireless Communications Networks Conference – WCNC 2010 19 April 2010 Sydney, Australia Adam Drobot President,"— Presentation transcript:

1 The Future of Wireless Keynote Talk IEEE Wireless Communications Networks Conference – WCNC April 2010 Sydney, Australia Adam Drobot President, Advanced Technology Solutions and CTO Telcordia Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA

2 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 2 Abstract  Starting with the early 1990’s, almost from nothing, a set of global networks were created with stunning speed and equally stunning commitment of capital –These networks and servers reach over 3 Billion people on the planet –They account for well over half the business activity of service providers –Mobile services involve components touching many technologies, which are on exponential trajectories –We have seen an explosion of devices, services, and applications –Consumers and users of these services have often surprised us with what they will spend money on –The impact on people’s lives and institutions has been profound  Starting with the early 1990’s, almost from nothing, a set of global networks were created with stunning speed and equally stunning commitment of capital –These networks and servers reach over 3 Billion people on the planet –They account for well over half the business activity of service providers –Mobile services involve components touching many technologies, which are on exponential trajectories –We have seen an explosion of devices, services, and applications –Consumers and users of these services have often surprised us with what they will spend money on –The impact on people’s lives and institutions has been profound

3 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 3 Abstract (cont’d)  We are about to embark on the next chapter of the mobile revolution where the global impact on the way we live and interact with each other will be even more dramatic –New unifying infrastructure build around LTE and IP –Extension to direct communication between devices –A driving force in economic growth around the world affecting all industries, governments, and individuals –Change in people’s life styles –Changes in who the players are for us in the industry –A global shift in where research and development will occur

4 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 4 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

5 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 5 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

6 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 6 Adoption: US Wireless Subscribers

7 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 7 Adoption: Consumer Adoption Curves, US

8 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 8 Wireless Adoption Milestones  2007: Wireless-only households exceed wireline-only households in US  2008: ICT* is 7% of US GDP and still growing!  2009: Half the world uses cell phones  2007: Wireless-only households exceed wireline-only households in US  2008: ICT* is 7% of US GDP and still growing!  2009: Half the world uses cell phones * Information-communication-technology producing industries (ICT): Consists of computer and electronic products; publishing industries (includes software); information and data processing services; and computer systems design and related services. (US BEA)

9 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 9 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

10 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 10 Wireless-only Households in Canada and the US Source: CRTC: Convergence Policy, Policy Development & Research, Feb 2010

11 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 11 Demographic Groups Most Likely to be Cellular Only % Cellphone-Only, Apr 2007

12 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 12 Percentage of US Households without Landline Telephones

13 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 13 Projected North American Business Use of Landline and Cell Phones

14 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 14 Phone Behavior by Age in Single-Person Households Source: Mediamark Research Inc. Survey of the American Consumer (Waves 56)

15 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 15 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

16 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 16 Global Trends: World View over 14 Years  153 countries, 1995 – 2008  Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 population  Mobile Subscriptions per 100 population  Internet Users per 100 population  Broadband Subscribers per 100 population  153 countries, 1995 – 2008  Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 population  Mobile Subscriptions per 100 population  Internet Users per 100 population  Broadband Subscribers per 100 population Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 InternetBroadbandContinue FixedMobile

17 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 17 Global Trends – Fixed Telephone Lines Fixed Telephone Lines Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 InternetBroadbandContinue FixedMobile

18 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 18 Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

19 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 19 Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Taiwan Australia Iceland U.S. China India Korea Myanmar Niger Qatar Kuwait Russia Switz. Canada Germany Viet Nam New Zealand Sweden Malta Eq. Guinea Malaysia South Africa Indonesia Burundi Papua New Guinea Lux. Norway Japan U.K. Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

20 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 20 Global Trends – Mobile Subscriptions Mobile Subscriptions Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 InternetBroadbandContinue FixedMobile

21 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 21 Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

22 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 22 Taiwan Canada U.S. Lux. China India Korea Niger Papua New Guinea Qatar Australia. Japan Italy Russia Switz. U.K. Viet Nam Indonesia Norway Gambia Bulgaria U.A.E Ukraine New Zealand Eq. Guinea Bahrain Lithuania Burundi Estonia Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

23 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 23 Global Trends – Internet Users Internet Users Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 InternetBroadbandContinue FixedMobile

24 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 24 Global Trends Internet Users per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

25 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 25 Global Trends Internet Users per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Taiwan Japan U.S. Lux. China India Korea Niger Papua New Guinea Qatar Kuwait Russia Switz. Canada Italy Viet Nam Portugal Iceland Australia Indonesia Norway Burundi Sweden Holland Malaysia Spain Eq. Guinea New Zealand Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

26 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 26 Global Trends – Broadband Subscribers Broadband Subscribers Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 InternetBroadbandContinue FixedMobile

27 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 27 Global Trends Broadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

28 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 28 Global Trends Broadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Korea Japan U.S. Denmark Lux. China India Taiwan Niger Myanmar Qatar Kuwait Russia Switz. Canada Italy Viet Nam Spain Portugal Iceland U.K. Chile Indonesia Sweden Norway Holland Germany New Zealand Australia Russia Eq. Guinea Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

29 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 29 Global Trends – Over 14 Years Continuing… Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 InternetBroadbandContinue FixedMobile

30 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 30 Global Trends – Mobile Penetration by Region – 2007 & 2008

31 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 31 Global Trends: Adoption by Developing Nations Source: Wireless Communications – Q Topical

32 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 32 Global Trends: Wired vs. Wireless Crossover

33 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 33 ARPU -- Data as % of Total, by Country Source: Chetan Sharma 2008

34 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 34 Wireless Data ARPU for Major Operators Worldwide Source: Chetan Sharma 2008

35 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 35 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

36 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 36 Pre-cellular US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to

37 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 37 US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to (red = new in 1996)

38 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 38 US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to

39 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 39 Pre-cellular Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to

40 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – (red = new in 1996) Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to

41 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to

42 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 42 Cellular Sites in the US – Source: CTIA

43 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 43 Mobile Sites in Australia – Data source: ACMA Mobile Sites

44 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 44 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

45 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 45 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

46 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 46 ?? Source: IDC Mobile Transformations The 5 Year Cycles

47 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 47 Source: IDC Mobile Transformations – Looking Forward

48 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 48 Cellphone Milestones Sat- Phone Treo StarTAC Nokia iPhone LG Sharp – first CameraPhone Nokia Motorola Prototype Motorola “brick” AMPS trial In Chicago Sony- Ericsson First TV ad In movies iDEN digital Kyocera SmartPhone GPRS digital Bluetooth BlackBerry ? ? ? Number portability Android App Store Open Source OS 500 billion text msgs in trillion text msgs in 2007 Wi-Fi cellular hybrid First SmartPhone -- touch screen, pager, calculator, calendar, fax, Texting Vibrates, Flips open QWERTY kbd IBM Simon Wi-Fi-cellular handoff 250 billion text msgs in 2001 GPS E-911 Nokia Patent : More mobile subs than wired, worldwide Color M I 95cl Games Mp3 player Polyphonic Ringtones 10 9 Nokia phones Concept:

49 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 49 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

50 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 50 Computing Performance (on log scale) Today Pentium II Pentium 4 Pentium 5 Pentium I486 I286/I386 IBM 360/370 At constant cost! At constant cost! Areal Density (Mbits / in 2 ) %CGR %CGR 60%CGR 25%CGR %CGR 60%CGR Storage Digitization – Computing & Storage Pentium III Pentium II Pentium III Pentium 4 Duo Core Pentium I486 I286/I386 IBM 360/370 Quad Core Grid Computing Autonomic Computing Blades Multicore Latent Semantic Indexing In-memory Databases Today

51 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 51 Digitization – Energy Efficiency

52 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 52 Digitization – Storage Capacity and Cost Sources: IDC, "1999 Winchester Disk Drive Market Forecast and Review,“ Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2000 *Telcordia projected capacity & costs Petabytes Shipped Cost per Gigabyte Cost * Capacity *

53 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 53 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

54 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 54 Role of Technology – Software Complexity - Component Development - Software Quality by Industry Range of Errors Per K lines of code Auto Military Telecom WWW C&C Agents, Service Oriented Architectures C, COBOL, Fortran, Ada C++, Smalltalk Java, J2EE.NET Development Structured ObjectOriented Development Model Driven Architectures Policy Based Designs Agents Service Oriented Architectures ComponentBased Today Programming 2000

55 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 55 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

56 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 56 Shape of the Industry & Underlying Infrastructure: Network Layers

57 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 57 Role of Technology – Networks & Interfaces Networks Performance Interconnects Access WANs Ethernet Gb Ethernet 10g Ethernet HIPPI SCI Infiniband PCI Express DS1 DS3 OC3 ST506 IDE SCSI ATA FChan OCN Performance Access WANs Ethernet Gb Ethernet 10g Ethernet HIPPI SCI PCI Express DS1 DS3 OC3 ST506 IDE SCSI ATA FChan OCN Today Ad-hoc Networks OCDMA AutoRF User Interfaces Surface Area of Display LCD Plasma CRT 6G Services Appliances Today 3D

58 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 58 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

59 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 59 Cellular Technology Roadmap CDMACDMA GSMGSM

60 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 60 Mobile Data Users in the U.S. Wireless Operator Wireless Technology Wireless Subscribers* % Data Subscribers AT&TGSM71.4M28% (20.0M) T-MobileGSM30.8M25% (07.7M) Verizon WirelessCDMA67.2M**31% (20.8M) SprintCDMA52.8M25% (13.2M)

61 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 61 Evolution of Three Key ITU IMTS 3G Technologies TDMA + WCDMA (3GPP) IMTS: Improved Mobile Telephony Service EV-DO: Evolution - Data Optimized TDMA: Time Division Multiple Access UMB: Ultra Mobile Broadband HSDPA: High Speed Downlink Packet Access OFDM: Orthogonal Frequency Division HSPA: High Speed Packet Access (DL+UL) Multiplexing LTE: Long Term Evolution SAE: System Architecture Evolution CDMA2000 (3GPP2) EV-DO Rel 0 EV-DO Rev A EV-DO Rev B WiMAX OFDM OFDMA m 4G EV-DO Rev C or UMB WCDMA R-99 HSDPA R5 LTE/SAE R8 … HSPA R6 HSPA+ EDGE Evolution R7

62 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 62 Data Rate, Mobility, Cost Comparisons Source: Alvarion

63 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 63 GSM Technology Outlook thru 2010 WCDMA R-99 HSDPA R5 LTE/SAE R8 HSUPA R6 … … (3GPP) GSM – WCDMA – LTE EDGE R-98 HSPA+ (MIMO) EDGE Evolution R7 GSM Global System for Mobile Communications GPRS General Packet Radio Service EDGE Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution WCDMA Wideband CDMA HSPDA High Speed Downlink Packet Data Access HSUPA High Speed Uplink Packet Data Access HSPA+ Enhanced High Speed Packet Access LTE Long Term Evolution SAE System Architecture Evolution Year of Technology Deployment in the US GSM/ GPRS Source: Telcordia Report, 2008

64 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 64 Technology Roadmap Cellular Technology Evolution: 2G, 3G, 4G… Source: Deutsche Bank (March 2008) 2G3G4G IDENWIDENHSDPAHSUPAHSPA+ CDMA 9-05A CDMA 9-05B CDMA20001xEV-DO1xEV-DOa1xEV-DOb GSM GSM/GPR3 EDGE TD-SCDMA LTE, UMB, n PDC WCDMA d e TDMA (CFDM) n & Mesh Latency:>200ms ms<100ms<20ms Data rate:20 kb/s~500 kb/sup to 7.2 Mb/sup to 50 Mb/s

65 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 65 Wireless Technology Roadmap Source: Docera Public Wiki 2010

66 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 66 Future Wireless Landscape  Dominated by LTE with WiMAX playing a secondary role  Two largest North American operators (Verizon and AT&T) will migrate towards LTE  Dominated by LTE with WiMAX playing a secondary role  Two largest North American operators (Verizon and AT&T) will migrate towards LTE

67 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 67 Future Wireless Landscape  Expect significant overlap and coexistence in migration path –LTE will coexist with Rev-A and with HSPA variants for some time –Multi-mode and backward compatible devices  Expect deployment delays –Industry generally says “2010” timeframe –Major hurdle may be backhaul to serve more base stations with greater bandwidth –Patents, Patents, Patents.  Expect significant overlap and coexistence in migration path –LTE will coexist with Rev-A and with HSPA variants for some time –Multi-mode and backward compatible devices  Expect deployment delays –Industry generally says “2010” timeframe –Major hurdle may be backhaul to serve more base stations with greater bandwidth –Patents, Patents, Patents.

68 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 68 Things to Expect by 2015  Near nationwide deployment in US with all top metro areas covered by a 4G technology  Backwards compatible terminals that can failover to 3G technologies  All-IP core networks and greater move towards mobile VoIP  More consumer electronics with embedded 3G/4G capabilities.  Near nationwide deployment in US with all top metro areas covered by a 4G technology  Backwards compatible terminals that can failover to 3G technologies  All-IP core networks and greater move towards mobile VoIP  More consumer electronics with embedded 3G/4G capabilities.

69 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 69 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

70 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 70 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

71 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 71 Stages of Wireless Evolution  Stage I –Whom can I reach, and how quickly?  Stage II –When can I reach them? Time shifting – messaging, & voic  Stage III –How much information can I exchange, and with what circle of recipients? Interoperable applications  Stage IV –Which applications make sense over which networks – LANs, WANs & broadband  Stage V – Can I combine all my handheld devices into one?  Stage I –Whom can I reach, and how quickly?  Stage II –When can I reach them? Time shifting – messaging, & voic  Stage III –How much information can I exchange, and with what circle of recipients? Interoperable applications  Stage IV –Which applications make sense over which networks – LANs, WANs & broadband  Stage V – Can I combine all my handheld devices into one?

72 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 72 Stages of Wireless Evolution  Stage VI –How can I access data & information? Initial digitization of information & creation of browser functions  Stage VII –How many applications can I use on my wireless handset?  Stage VIII –How can I use the same applications on multiple devices? – Home, Office, PC, Smartphone…  Stage IX – How can I get services that anticipate what I need?  Stage X – How can I get anything, any place, any time?   And always… How can I get more for less?  Stage VI –How can I access data & information? Initial digitization of information & creation of browser functions  Stage VII –How many applications can I use on my wireless handset?  Stage VIII –How can I use the same applications on multiple devices? – Home, Office, PC, Smartphone…  Stage IX – How can I get services that anticipate what I need?  Stage X – How can I get anything, any place, any time?   And always… How can I get more for less?

73 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 73 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

74 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 74 What Will 5G & 6G Look Like? Mobility Ubiquity Physical Sciences Speed Bandwidth Immediacy Relevance 5G and 6G Service Networks 3G and 4G Networks Voice Fixed VoiceWireless, News Text Video On Demand, Movies Video on the Spot, Alerts Anticipation 3D

75 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 75 5G and 6G Services  Immediacy –Voice & Texting –Emergency Response –News –Financial Info –Gaming –Selected Entertainment Products –Streaming Audio / Video –...  Immediacy –Voice & Texting –Emergency Response –News –Financial Info –Gaming –Selected Entertainment Products –Streaming Audio / Video –...  Anticipation –Social networking –Location Based Services –Opportunity Driven Marketing –Scheduling / Alerts –Advanced Healthcare –Telematics –Financial Services –Diagnostics / Prognostics –...

76 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 76 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

77 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 77 IP Leading to a Fully Packetized Future  Information / data / content / media – major drivers for applications 1.First, everything must be indexed for searching (now underway) 2.Once digitized, indexed, objectified, everything will be made available on a wireless handset, through over-the-top applications (voice is just one service of many) 3.What’s now available to techies, the rest of the world wants 4.Google’s success: They’re the ones doing the mash ups for the masses  Information / data / content / media – major drivers for applications 1.First, everything must be indexed for searching (now underway) 2.Once digitized, indexed, objectified, everything will be made available on a wireless handset, through over-the-top applications (voice is just one service of many) 3.What’s now available to techies, the rest of the world wants 4.Google’s success: They’re the ones doing the mash ups for the masses

78 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 78 Convergence, Cooperation, Conflict?  Telecom, broadcasting media, and Internet – all converging & competing in the same content delivery space  Result is collision of world views, business models (e.g. ad- based vs. subscription-based)  Operators, device vendors, IT and media firms, chipset vendors – all jostling for dominance  User experience emerges as new battleground  Leading players seek to acquire core assets they deem critical for success in converged space  Seek to lead, and shape, necessary eco-system  Colliding industries, “creative gales of destruction”, force players to experiment with new business models  Telecom, broadcasting media, and Internet – all converging & competing in the same content delivery space  Result is collision of world views, business models (e.g. ad- based vs. subscription-based)  Operators, device vendors, IT and media firms, chipset vendors – all jostling for dominance  User experience emerges as new battleground  Leading players seek to acquire core assets they deem critical for success in converged space  Seek to lead, and shape, necessary eco-system  Colliding industries, “creative gales of destruction”, force players to experiment with new business models Source: IDC

79 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 79 Traffic Impact of Introducing Packet-based Services

80 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 80 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

81 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 81 5G and 6G World: Integration, Convergence Source: IDC

82 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 82 5G and 6G World: Market Driven by Applications Source: IDC

83 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 83 5G and 6G World: Market Driven by Applications Source: IDC 150,000 apps… And counting!

84 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 84 Digitization: 5G and 6G Services  Services, Applications –Games –Bill pay –M-Commerce –Social networking –Store / restaurant finder –Turn-by-turn navigation –...  Applications -- magnet for customers and revenue!  Services, Applications –Games –Bill pay –M-Commerce –Social networking –Store / restaurant finder –Turn-by-turn navigation –...  Applications -- magnet for customers and revenue!

85 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 85 Digitization – 5G and 6G Services The Columbia University Earth Institute – Millennium Villages Project in Africa  Broadband, Internet, and cell phones are narrowing the digital divide  They are revolutionizing how development assistance works  “It’s a remarkable technology… incredibly powerful and quickly reaching the poor on a market basis.”  “Rural poverty has in the past been defined almost by its isolation. This is a way to break economic isolation, indeed isolation of all sorts.” The Columbia University Earth Institute – Millennium Villages Project in Africa  Broadband, Internet, and cell phones are narrowing the digital divide  They are revolutionizing how development assistance works  “It’s a remarkable technology… incredibly powerful and quickly reaching the poor on a market basis.”  “Rural poverty has in the past been defined almost by its isolation. This is a way to break economic isolation, indeed isolation of all sorts.” Professor Jeffrey Sachs

86 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 86 Africa Mobile Penetration Source: Blycroft: “The Africa and Middle East Mobile Telecoms Market in Figures 2Q 2009“

87 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 87 ICT Development in Africa

88 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 88 Millennium Villages Project in East Africa

89 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 89 Digitization – IP as a Wireless Integration Enabler  Over-the-Top Services  App Stores  Long-term, it’s all about services!  Over-the-Top Services  App Stores  Long-term, it’s all about services! Source: IDC

90 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 90 Mobile Data Services Market: % Revenues by Segment Forecasts: India Others include mobile commerce & mobile marketing / advertising Source: Frost & Sullivan Year 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Revenues MessagingEntertainmentInformationOthers

91 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 91 Example: Telematics – Projected Growth in Navigation Devices (millions) Source: Telematics Research Group OEM market share: 45% in 2005… 6% in 2012

92 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 92 Example: Telematics – Subscriber Base Growth Source: Frost & Sullivan

93 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 93 Example: Telematics – Wireless Revenue Breakdown Source: Frost & Sullivan

94 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 94 Operators Still Have (the) Key Assets !  Network, backhaul  Spectrum  Customer relationships  OSS / BSS  Transaction-generated information  Spatial coordinates, user location  Most small developers still want ties with operators  Service provider of last resort  Brand and mind share  Regulatory backing (after all is said, they build & operate critical social infrastructure)  Network, backhaul  Spectrum  Customer relationships  OSS / BSS  Transaction-generated information  Spatial coordinates, user location  Most small developers still want ties with operators  Service provider of last resort  Brand and mind share  Regulatory backing (after all is said, they build & operate critical social infrastructure) Source: IDC

95 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 95 Agenda  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers  Trends and Projections –Adoption Curves (long term views) –Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future –Global Penetration –Infrastructure  Technologies –User Equipment –Computing & Storage –Software –Networks –Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G –Stages and Evolution –The 5G and 6G World –IP as an Integration Enabler –Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers

96 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 96 Discussion It’s an Exciting World! –Moving at an exponential pace –Wireless is the future It’s an Exciting World! –Moving at an exponential pace –Wireless is the future “You ain’t seen nothing yet!”

97 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 97 Thank you!

98 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 98 G’day


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