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“Myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14 th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)

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Presentation on theme: "“Myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14 th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)"— Presentation transcript:

1 “Myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14 th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)

2 Contents 1.Perspective: development path (Gapminder) – slower but not stagnant; need to reindustrialise. 2.Key data 3.Macroeconomics and trade 4.Themes to understand 5.SWOT and Business Opportunities

3 Poorest in ASEAN

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5 GDP: Roll a dice CountryData source2007/ / to 2008 GDI/GD PICOR Myanmar Official ESCAP IMF ADB (2012 ) The Economist China Vietnam

6 Other indicative and key data Electricity sales grew 4.5% p.a Cement sales grew 1.8% p.a Poverty 26% (IHLCS 2010) 26% of households have grid electricity Adult literacy 92% (?) Infant mortality rate 50/1,000 Life expectancy 62 years 13 million (of 60 million) aged years

7 Macroeconomic management a concern IMF: Kyat 30-40% over-valued (expect depreciation) Exchange rate unified March 2012

8 Deficits widen and few export items

9 68% of exports are gas, logs, and legumes. Clothing and footwear are only 8% of exports.

10 Themes to understand  Public Investment: small total; central projects; locals rely on own-funds (WB PEFA). Tax revenue 3% of GDP.  Administrative capacities/systems (FDI in manufacturing, hotels and tourism totalled $53.6m during )  Tertiary education: generational variance

11 Logistics performance and infrastructure: Marginally worst in ASEAN

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13 Business Opportunities SHORT TERM: –Tourism –Extractives: oil, gas, mining –Licences (e.g. telecoms) LONG TERM: –2015 elections are market entry trigger.

14 “Myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14 th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)


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