1. “Myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14 th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)

2. Contents 1.Perspective: development path (Gapminder) – slower but not stagnant; need to reindustrialise. 2.Key data 3.Macroeconomics and trade 4.Themes to understand 5.SWOT and Business Opportunities

3. Poorest in ASEAN

5. GDP: Roll a dice CountryData source2007/20082008/2009 2000 to 2008 GDI/GD PICOR Myanmar Official 11.910.712.612.41.0 ESCAP 5.52.0 IMF 5.54.54.6 ADB 5.5 3.6 6.0 (2012 ) The Economist 3.40.9 China 11.410.09.339.34.2 Vietnam 8.57.07.134.14.8

6. Other indicative and key data Electricity sales grew 4.5% p.a. 2002-2009 Cement sales grew 1.8% p.a. 2004-2009 Poverty 26% (IHLCS 2010) 26% of households have grid electricity Adult literacy 92% (?) Infant mortality rate 50/1,000 Life expectancy 62 years 13 million (of 60 million) aged 15-28 years

7. Macroeconomic management a concern IMF: Kyat 30-40% over-valued (expect depreciation) Exchange rate unified March 2012

8. Deficits widen and few export items

9. 68% of exports are gas, logs, and legumes. Clothing and footwear are only 8% of exports.

10. Themes to understand  Public Investment: small total; central projects; locals rely on own-funds (WB PEFA). Tax revenue 3% of GDP.  Administrative capacities/systems (FDI in manufacturing, hotels and tourism totalled $53.6m during 2005-2010)  Tertiary education: generational variance

11. Logistics performance and infrastructure: Marginally worst in ASEAN

13. Business Opportunities SHORT TERM: –Tourism –Extractives: oil, gas, mining –Licences (e.g. telecoms) LONG TERM: –2015 elections are market entry trigger.

14. “Myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14 th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)