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Lagos Beyond 2015: BOLD IDEAS, NEW OPPORTUNITIES February 04, 2015.

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Presentation on theme: "Lagos Beyond 2015: BOLD IDEAS, NEW OPPORTUNITIES February 04, 2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 Lagos Beyond 2015: BOLD IDEAS, NEW OPPORTUNITIES February 04, 2015

2 There are 3 fundamental questions to answer 1

3 Why am I in this race?

4 I am in this race because …….. 3  I believe I can make a significant difference in the need to achieve a Lagos that is sustainably competitive and liveable  Lagos has lost ground when compared with other mega cities -The improvements in Lagos over the past decade-and-half could and should have resulted in a more competitive environment for business and more humane society for the people of our State – residents, indigenes and visitors  The developments ahead are likely to disadvantage Lagos and responding to them requires a clear understanding of making private effort work effectively for the community  The future can’t be about celebrating progress which doesn’t match what our comparators achieved – Lagos is not and cannot be about local comparisons. It is an international Mega City and must be compared with others  It can’t be about continuity, its all about leapfrogging change on limited resources!!

5 The importance of Lagos as a megacity needs to shift from being all about population to being about competitiveness

6 Lagos is deservingly a hotspot city based on population, …ranks low in competitiveness Population Sources: 1. EIU Hotspots 2025, Becoming the future competitiveness of cities 2. Oxford Economics: Global Cities 2030 Forecast Service (GDP 2012 Current Price Level) 3. CBN Database – Capital Importation by Location and Type. 137 th /140  EIU Liveability Index  Stability, Healthcare, Culture and environment, Education and infrastructure  Global Urban Competitiveness Index (GUCI) Reports  Economic scale, growth, efficiency, density, quality and Exterior effect  City Prosperity Index (CPI)  Productivity, Infrastructure, Quality of life, equity, environmental sustainability  (0.5 shows weakest prosperity factor)  Lagos receives 98% of Nigeria’s capital importation, yet 78% is in the stock exchange (short term money) and other portfolio investments than FDIs 3  548% increase in consumer spend between 2010-2030 2 POPULATION  EIU Hotspots 2025  Economic strength, Physical capital, Financial maturity, Institutional character, Human capital quality, Environmental governance quality and Global appeal DEVELOPMENT & COMPETITIVENESS 119 th /120 454 th /500 0.496/1  City with the world’s biggest increase in population by 2030 2  World’s largest entry level consumers (ages 14 and below) by 2025 2  Number of households in Lagos is expected to grow by 3million (four times faster than New York (by 2025) 2 We perform poorly on competitiveness and quality of life indices

7 Lagos is deservingly a hotspot city based on population, …ranks low in competitiveness Population  EIU Liveability Index  The Liveability index ranks 140 cities with the best and worst living conditions. The best city is ranked 1 st and the worst 140 th.  Global Urban Competitiveness Index (GUCI) Reports  The GUCI ranks the economic competitiveness of 500 cities around the world. The best city is ranked 1 st and the worst is 500 th.  City Prosperity Index (CPI)  CPI measures the present and future progress of cities towards economic prosperity.  The CPI ranges from 0 – 1  EIU Hotspots 2025  The 2025 City Competitiveness Index benchmarks the economic competitiveness of 120 cities across the world at two distinct points in time: 2012 and in 2025. The most competitive city is ranked 1 st and the least is ranked 120 th WHAT DO THESE INDICES MEASURE? ….and the picture is even worse relative to comparative global cities WHERE LAGOS STANDS AMONGST OTHER COMPARABLE MEGA-CITIES SOURCE: 1.EIU Global Liveability Rankings 2014 2.EIU Hot Spots 2025 Benchmarking the future competitiveness of cities 3.UN HABITAT: State of the World's Cities 2012/2013, Prosperity of Cities 4.The Global Urban Competitiveness Report 2010 CPI Keys 0.900 – 1 very solid prosperity factors 0.800 – 0.899 solid prosperity factors – first category 0.700 – 0.799 solid prosperity factors – second category 0.600 – 0.699 moderate prosperity factors 0.500 – 0.599 weak prosperity factors Below 0.500 very weak prosperity factors Solid Moderate Weak

8 15 years & N4.1trn later…………..

9 Lagos prides itself as the economic hub of Nigeria yet is unfriendly to businesses 1. STARTING A BUSINESS 2. DEALING WITH CONSTRUCTION PERMITS 3. REGISTERING PROPERTY 4. ENFORCING CONTRACTS 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 4 th 5 th 1 st 1 st 2 nd 2 nd 3 rd 3 rd 4 th 4 th 5 th 5 th FCT ABUJA ZAMFARA KEBBI LAGOS 36th 28 th 31 st OGUN JIGAWA SOKOTO OSUN EKITI NIGER 1 st 2 nd 4 th 5 th 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 5 th ZAMFARA GOMBE KATSINA JIGAWA KANO 3 rd KATSINA KADUNA KEBBIYOBE EDO LAGOS  Cost of dealing with construction permits increased to 3504% of income per capita (2013) from 1016% (2007)  The State declined from its position in registering a property 27 th (2010)to its current position 31 st (2013),  Though the time reduced from 2010 (82 to 77days ) in registering a property, 30 states are doing better than Lagos SOURCE: World Bank Group; Doing Business in Nigeria (2008, 2010 & 2014) reports. NOTE: RANKINGS ARE AS AT 2013 World Bank: Doing Business in Nigeria 2014 compares Business Regulations for Domestic Firms in 35 States and Abuja, FCT and ranks them accordingly. HARSH CONDITIONS

10 Losing our competitive advantage to Ogun State 9 SOURCE: World Bank Group; Doing Business in Nigeria (2008, 2010 & 2014) reports. NOTE: RANKINGS ARE AS AT 2013 LAGOS 4/36 OGUN 5/36 LAGOS 36/36 OGUN 16/36 LAGOS 31/36 OGUN 28/36 LAGOS 28/36 OGUN 17/36

11 State infrastructure is struggling to keep up with the demands of a growing population

12 Health Indicators20002014E No of hospital beds / 1000 people 0.700.33 No of doctors / 1000 people 0.200.33 No of nurses / 1000 people 1.001.05 Health facilities are increasing at a slower pace than the population SOURCE:: 1.Oxford Economics Group: Global cities 2030 forecast services: Number of hospital beds (2000 – 2014), Number of doctors( 2000 -2014), Number of nurses (2000 -2014) 2.Lagos Bureau of Statistics, 2011 Digest (Population 2006 – 2014) (Population estimates for Year 2000)

13 12 Educational outcomes in Lagos reflect insufficient levels of investment in the education sector relative to population growth Source: Oxford Economics Group: Global cities 2030 forecast services, Lagos Population (2000 – 2005), Lagos Bureau of Statistics, 2011 Digest (Population 2006 – 2014) Note: Age 5-19 was population used as a proxy for Universal Basic Education (UBE) population from the Lagos Bureau of Statistics, 2011 Digest (Population 2006 – 2014) (Year 2000 population estimate) Indicators20002014ECAGR UBE Eligible Population (Million) 4.036.728.16 No of primary education teachers 13,00023,6004.30 No of secondary education teachers 5,70018,0008.56 In 2014,only 45.86% of students in Lagos State passed WAEC IndicatorsPrimaryJSSSSS Year09/1010/1109/1010/1109/1010/11 Classroom student ratio 1:331:421:871:781:681:63 Teacher student ratio 1:281:301:341:351:261:28 As you all know, your businesses pay the cost of the failure of education

14 The State is still struggling to meet the transportation needs of a true global mega-city  Transport is predominantly road based, leading to congestion  Water transportation for intra-state carriage of goods and people is under-utilized  Lagos is one of the two mega cities in the world without rail based mass transit, the other being Karachi in Pakistan  The rail track right of way is currently occupied by traders, markets and even residences Overview Current Transport Demand  Demand for transport services is growing faster than economic growth in Lagos Metropolitan Areas (LMA)  17.5 million Lagos residents create demand for about 10.5 million trips daily on all motorised modes  Number of passenger trips carried by BRT grew to 62 million passenger trips in 2010 from 12.5million passenger trips in 2008 2  Total number of buses operating in LMA is estimated to be about 83,000  Water Transportation: 117 Vessels operated by 47 providers, number of passengers moved from 1.5 million monthly to 1.8 million between June and October 2013 Source: Transportation Master Plan by LAMATA, Lagos, (Project: Lagos Rail Mass Transit System, Nigeria 2

15 The demand for additional housing in Lagos is growing rapidly SOURCE: Oxford Economics: Global cities 2030 forecast services 1, Lagos State Development Plan 2012-2025 2  Lagos state has a housing deficit in excess of 2 million units 2  LSDPC has provided about 20,000 housing units since 1972 2  Ministry of housing has only added about 5,000 housing units in Lagos since 1999 2 91,000 169,000

16 Businesses, such as yours, are affected directly by several issues in Lagos  Porous Security - of life, property and investment  Inadequate infrastructure - Power & Transportation: Roads, Water, Rail  Rising cost of doing business in Lagos -Multiple taxes -Illegal fees and levies -Regulation as taxation  Lack of skilled manpower - even with high unemployment levels

17 Emerging National Reforms may be to the disadvantage of Lagos For example - The reforms which will lead to the expansion and modernisation of national Rail network Consequences  Individuals Move to surrounding states with lower cost of housing and living and commute to Lagos i.e. loss of income taxes and spending  Businesses can move to lower cost areas (or closer to raw materials) and send goods by rail to Lagos i.e. loss of competitive advantage as economic and business hub  Lagos cannot afford to take businesses or residents for granted!

18 Headwinds arising from current decline in oil prices are pointers to a tougher 2015 & 2016 for Lagos State  Source: (Average prices for OPEC crude oil from 2000 to 2014 (in U.S. dollars per barrel) 2- 5 Year Revenue, Expenditure and Debt Profile of Lagos; Lagos State Budget 2008-2014  Drop in Federal Allocation  Decline in IGR  Business slow down may affect IGR negatively  Declining taxable persons, as companies downsize  Exchange rate depreciation  Make dollar denominated debt - more expensive  Importation - more expensive, thus fewer imports  higher costs for businesses importing raw materials  The pass through effect will cause a rise in inflation rate Declining Crude Oil PricesImplications for Lagos Oil Shock Historical antecedent (2009 Oil shock)- LASG actual IGR performance against expected declined to 76.9% (2009) from 81.8%(2008) and fell further to 75.7(2010) 2

19 What we need is to transform Our Lagos into a specialised economy so as to develop new competencies and competitive advantage


21 We know that for us to succeed, we need a clear vision, a powerful message and ground-breaking policies 20  We aim for a Lagos that embraces its position as a global mega-city state populated by well-educated, skilled, healthy people living in secure and prosperous environment  We strive for a Lagos that enables ‘Lagosians’ to achieve their personal, entrepreneurial and professional aspirations, regardless of origin, socio- economic background and gender  We will work towards a Lagos that confirms its place as a regional hub for financial and professional services and commercial enterprise through genuinely business-friendly reforms and initiatives  Our government will be inclusive and will foster partnerships with the private sector, other tiers of government, non-governmental interest and community groups to improve access and delivery of economic goods and services

22 Our Strategy to re-position Lagos as a business friendly environment 21 THEMES SOURCE: Team analysis Ensure that State policies are people friendly and are always for the benefit of the people and the State. Sustainable development focusing on the needs of Lagos as a megacity today and the future Ensuring that all projects have clear, achievable goals and are monitored from inception to completion Citizens resources used efficiently and transparently with full accountability to the people Value for money Doing thins differently and effectively A kinder more humane Lagos Build an efficient and dynamic economy for today and the future Diversifying the economy 1 Improving on security 2 Reforming laws and taxes 3 Improving the quality of labour/Man power 4 Expanding and developing infrastructure 5 PEOPLE

23 The JayKay policy philosophy is based on aspiration and prosperity with clear roles and responsibilities for residents and the government 22 Every resident has aspirations Suggested improvement initiatives and potential impact  Every resident of Lagos has aspirations regardless of Socio-economic background, educational-level, profession or status  Residents are enabled to achieve their aspirations, because the state government helps them to:  IDENTIFY opportunities  ACCESS the identified opportunities  BENEFIT from/Take advantage of opportunities  The Government will clearly define and articulate its roles and responsibilities to the residents of Lagos  Residents have expectations of the government BUT there are also responsibilities flowing from residents to the government and fellow residents  The government will partner with diverse, appropriate stakeholders to deliver economic goods, services & infrastructure  Partners will include  The Private sector  Non-governmental organisations and professional interest groups  Local governments and wards  Community and neighbourhood groups  International agencies and non-government organisations  The government will:  Ensure efficient and cost-effective provision/delivery of facilities and services  the private sector will be the primary vehicle for delivery of services and provision of facilities  In exceptional cases, provision and/or delivery will be through government agencies  Regulate, monitor and evaluate the quality of services and facilities provided  The role of the Government

24 We will:  Broaden our tax net by  Encouraging growth of new businesses and new business areas  Work towards becoming an International financial centre  Establish Industrial Clusters  Set aside 5% of the State procurement budget for young entrepreneurs and graduates  Pass the local content legislation to enforce 10% participation of residents and small businesses in large scale State Projects – This will be achieved through employment, sub-project and/or training opportunities.  Ensure Open procurement process - that is the business of Lagos will be transparent and open to all; faster execution and implementation and expansion of the provisions of the Lagos State Procurement law A way to renewal and rapid expansion Diversifying the economy 1 Establish an Ocean economy Tourist centre and natural trade location Logistics hub Invest in a Digital economy One stop Investment centre  Epe and Ikorodu to be national fisheries hub  Exploit the geography of Badagry  Develop Epe Free Trade Zone, port and airport into a logistics hub and aerotropolis  Free Wi-Fi/Hot spots in libraries, Local Government Headquarters and other selected public places  To help new businesses fast track government approvals - educate them on government opportunities

25 ▪Utilize Security Trust Fund more effectively ▪Encourage more IPPs ▪Provide more solar powered public lighting Tackle underlying causes of crimes (Unemployment, lack of education) 3  Establish an international state crime lab to enhance crime detection  Give neighbourhoods the greater responsibility for protecting their communities by empowering community/neighbourhood watches through integration with the state security network  Support the State police initiative and reforms from the National conference  Increase the funding for primary education;  Strengthen technical/vocational education to provide an option with those who are academically challenged and encourage Local and international certification and standards for artisans and technicians  Provide 100,000 vocational and internship places annually  Attain a 65% pass in WAEC/appropriate degrees  Rehabilitate slums to bring succour to Lagosians Implement our new initiatives 21 Strengthen current initiatives Lagos State needs to operate a 24-hour economy Improving Security 2 The Security findings of the National Crime Victimization and Safety Survey 2013, show that 62% of Lagosians fear becoming victims of crime

26 25 A B C SOURCE: Cummins Africa SC team We will continue to encourage businesses by ensuring State laws are fair and giving them a suitable environment to encourage investment We will ensure that Lagos becomes business friendly and we will boost the economic activities within the State Reforming Laws and Taxes 3 Reform and simplify the property registration process Avoid the use of regulation as a means of taxation Review and rationalise the list of fees taxes and levies payable by businesses.

27  Provide more funds for Primary; Ensure that education is accessible, affordable, available and of high quality  Our children will leave the education system with industry-demanded skills and qualifications  Strengthen the inspectorate division for public and private schools to ensure high standards – so we can raise the success rate in WAEC Public School Education Youth Empowerment  Establish an IT-based job matching recruitment system and portal, incorporating pre-employment screening, retraining and remedial programmes and real job opportunities and placements  Offer Re-training opportunities – match industry needs to skills development Technical and Vocational Education  Provide 100,000 vocational and internship places annually  Encourage skill acquisition through informal apprenticeship/vocational education  Set local and international certification/standards for artisans and technicians Our Labour force has to be ready to be able to compete internationally Improving the quality of labour/Man power 4

28  Review and accelerate implementation of the Transportation Master Plan to create an integrated Multi-modal mass-transit system  Engagement in PPPs to allow greater regulated private sector participation in road mass transportation  Revisit the framework for private participation in the light-rail system, incorporation of different companies for different lines and for maintenance; resolution of right-of-way issues with the Federal Government through constructive dialogue and partnership  Re-activate and expand the utilisation of Lagos ‟ extensive inland waterways for transportation of goods and people; enforce safety standards to avoid accidents Transportation Health  Working with the Private Sector, we will deliver 150,000 housing units by 2018 through fostering partnerships with the private sector and promoting sustainable and effective building methods  Provide Land and partner with developers  Promote industrial scale building methods  Reduce the cost of land and registration title ( the cost and time of government bureaucracy)  Review and reform property registration and title process Housing  Universal Health Coverage - Eko Contributory Health Insurance Scheme, open to all residents of Lagos State  mobile and community-based micro-clinics in all LGAs and LCDAs, especially rural areas  Eko Medical City (health tourism resort) Expanding and developing infrastructure 5 We need to create an enabling environment for businesses

29 28 Cost Recovery PLANNED ACTION Public-Private Partnerships Greater Efficiency of tax Capital Markets Co financing STRATEGY We believe that as the economy expands, the revenue base will also broaden Reduce Leakages  Constructive engagement with the Federal government on cost recovery  Creatively design projects within our programme to ensure they are viable and attractive to the private Sector  Encourage schemes with matching contributions from the Federal Government of Nigeria  Seek resources in form of grants from donor agencies and international funding sources – World Bank Grants, Non-Multilateral Agency grants etc.  Streamline the heads and points of taxation so as to encourage more voluntary compliance  Invest in technology to widen tax coverage and improve efficiency to reduce leakages  Use the instrumentality of financial markets and expert advice to restructure existing debts  Where appropriate, continue to use capital market resources and the securitisation of cash flow from assets for development  Initiatives that mean citizens will pay even minimal contributions to services such as health (micro-insurance) in the medium term  We believe there are significant leakages in the system and the savings from reducing these leakages will fund some of our projects  Certain projects will be prioritised ahead of others, based on expected impact Prioritise projects

30 Who am I?

31  Member of the “Concerned Professionals”  Member, Save Nigeria Group (SNG)  Founder, Jimi Agbaje Outreach  Trustee, Nigerian Infection Control Association (NICA).  Patron, Catholic Youth Organisation of Nigeria (CYON) Archdiocese of Lagos  Faculty Member, African Centre of Leadership, Strategy and Development  Awardee the National Honour of the Order of The Niger (OON) for his contribution to the Pharmacy Profession & Politics  Member of the “Concerned Professionals”  Member, Save Nigeria Group (SNG)  Founder, Jimi Agbaje Outreach  Trustee, Nigerian Infection Control Association (NICA).  Patron, Catholic Youth Organisation of Nigeria (CYON) Archdiocese of Lagos  Faculty Member, African Centre of Leadership, Strategy and Development  Awardee the National Honour of the Order of The Niger (OON) for his contribution to the Pharmacy Profession & Politics  PDP gubernatorial candidate for Lagos State  Lagos State gubernatorial candidate of the Democratic Peoples’ Alliance Party in 2011  Former Treasurer and Secretary of the Socio-Political Movement Afenifere Group  Lagos Coordinator of the Afenifere Renewal Group (ARG)  The Managing Director of Jaykay Pharmaceutical & Chemical Company Ltd. -Nationwide manufacturer and distributor of pharmaceuticals  Board Member, Vigeo Holdings Ltd  Board Member, Oakwood Park Ltd  Vice Chairman, Atlantic Hall School  Former National Chairman, Nigerian Association of General Practice Pharmacists  Former Chairman, Lagos State Pharmaceutical Society of Nigeria  Committee Member, Lagos State Task Force on Fake & Adulterated Drugs  Fellow, Pharmaceutical Society of Nigeria  Fellow, West African Post Graduate College of Pharmacy  Fellow, Nigerian Academy of Pharmacy A Politician A Social Activist A Pharmacist, entrepreneur & investor


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