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The Black Swan: Why We Do Not See Rare Events. The Happy Turkey Food per day in kg Days of life 306090120150180210240 Christmas Day.

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Presentation on theme: "The Black Swan: Why We Do Not See Rare Events. The Happy Turkey Food per day in kg Days of life 306090120150180210240 Christmas Day."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Black Swan: Why We Do Not See Rare Events

2 The Happy Turkey Food per day in kg Days of life Christmas Day

3 Why do we behave like happy turkeys? A psychological approach based on Thinking, Fast and Slow by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman

4 Overview Our mind: a machine that produces associations Priming (creating a basic attitude) ▫ Lady Macbeth effect ▫ Honesty Box effect Environmental Priming

5 ASSOCIATIONS

6 rat

7 Pupils widen Face twists Expression of disgust Move away from the sight Heart rate increases Hair on the arms rises Start to sweat → We react as if the experience was real Associations: Automatic reactions to the word (and to the images associated with it)

8 Idea 4 Emotions + feelings facial expressions gestures Associations Idea 5 Idea 3 Idea 1 Idea 2 memories activated Idea “RAT“ stronger memory

9 EXPERIMENT

10 SO_P Priming (automatische Aktivierung von Einstellungen z. B. in Vorurteilen/Stereotypen)

11 SOUP SOAP The idea of “food” primes the idea of “soup” The idea of “bath” primes the idea of “soap” unconscious

12 Lady Macbeth (Shakespeare) ▫ Lady Macbeth wants to become the queen of Scotland ▫ her husband (Macbeth) is not a king ▫ Lady M. sends husband to kill king Duncan ▫ Macbeth kills the king but forgets to take dagger (Dolch) ▫ Lady M. fetches dagger ▫ her hands covered with blood ▫ washes her hands (thinking the sin is gone, too) ▫ Later: nightmares  her subconscious (Unterbewusstsein) stored picture of bloody hands => wants to wash them all the time

13 Experiment Priming: “Lie to your friend …” … on the phone!” (Group 1) … in an !” (Group 2) “Go to a shop and buy mouthwash or soap.” What do you think the people in each group bought? Group 1 => prefer mouthwash over soap Group 2 => prefer soap over mouthwash Lady Macbeth Effect

14 Honesty Box Experiment Office kitchen Minimum contribution: 15 pennies One week: picture One week: eyes When do you think the people paid more?

15 Source: „Thinking, Fast and Slow“ (Daniel Kahneman) Kahneman’s Results

16 Time Actions Priming and environmental protection All the arctic ice melts: => Sea level rises by 6 m


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