Source: Department of Commerce and DECPG calculations. U.S. GDP growth falls to 0.6% in fourth quarter as housing takes a toll growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Net exports Government Consumption Fixed Investment Change in stocks Growth 2007 2.2%
Source: National Assn of Realtors and Department of Commerce. Existing home sales U.S. new home sales drop 33% over 2007– worst in 45 years existing and new home sales, ch% 3mma y/y New home sales
Source: Departments of Labor and Commerce. Employment [R] Retail sales [L] Employment decline in January points to weaker retail spending ahead retail sales, ch% 3mma y/y [L], change in employment 3mma [R]
Source: Cabinet Office and DECPG calculations. Japanese GDP jumps to 3.7% growth in fourth quarter on exports growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Net exports Stocks Fixed Investment Government Consumption Growth 2007 2.1%
Japan’s public-sector and residential investment show sharp declines public- and residential investment, share of real GDP, percent Source: Cabinet Office through Thomson/Datastream. Public investment Residential investment
Japan’s orders momentum up in December supporting exports and production export volume and IP, ch% saar [L] machinery orders ch% saar [R] Exports [L] Industrial production [L] New machinery orders [R] Source: Cabinet Office through Thomson/Datastream.
Euro Area growth eases in fourth quarter on consumer and exports percent change Source: EuroStat.
German exports and production dampened by euro strength export volumes and IP ch% 3mma, y/y Source: Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream. Production Exports
ECB hints at cut in policy rates as Euro Area growth slows HICP inflation (ch% y/y) [L]; Germany IP ch% saar [R] Source: Eurostat and Bundesbank. Germany IP [R] HICP inflation (y/y) [L]
The tech-cycle has been truncated by global growth uncertainties and delayed investment spending global semi-chip sales and high-tech exports, ch% saar Source: SIA, Thomson/Datastream, Haver. Exports Semiconductor sales
Production trends still at lofty rates but signs of downturn emerging unit value index in USD terms, ch% year-on- year Global East Asia x Japan Source: National Agencies and DECPG calculations.
G-3 high-tech orders back in negative territory G-3 orders for high-tech manufactures, US dollar terms, ch% saar G-3 High-tech orders
Developing countries are now key drivers of global imports and trade contribution to global import growth, ch% year-on-year Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream. Developing country imports U.S. imports
Gap between developing export- and high-income import- growth widens growth (USD, y/y percent) developing country exports and high-income imports Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream. Developing country export volumes High-income import volumes
Large emerging economies’ import growth and contributions strengthen contribution to global import growth, ch% year-on-year Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream. China Russia India Brazil
Source: Thomson/Datastream. Dollar in holding pattern against the majors since mid-January index, LCU per USD, January 1, 2007 = 100 euro yen
U.S. capital inflows up since August 2007– demand for Treasuries falling billions U.S. dollars Source: TICS data system: U.S. Treasury. o/w Treasuries/Agencies Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities o/w Private securities
Source: Thomson/Datastream. Commodity currencies trading slightly stronger against the dollar index, LCU per USD, July 1, 2007 = 100 A$ ruble Brazil Rl C$
The External Environment for Developing Countries February 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
Fed funds target rate [L] LIBOR 6-months [L] Source: Thomson/Datastream. Another 50bp cut in Fed Funds on Jan-30 carries the rate to 3 percent DJIA [R] Fed funds rate, LIBOR 6-month [left] DJIA [right]
Services activity tumbles in January joining factory output in doldrums IP manufacturing ch% saar [Left], ISM Services Index [Right] Source: Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management. IP manufacturing [L] ISM Services [R]
Source: JPMorgan-Chase and Thomson/Datastream Spreads continue to widen in 2008 EMBIG spread, basis points [left] and U.S. 10-year T-note, percent [right] EMBIG Spread [left] U.S. 10-year Treasury note [right]