DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY KEARNY SCHOOL DISTRICT Dr. Len Elovitz
Methodology Cohort Survival Enrollment History Average survival ratios Application to current enrollment to predict forward
Pre K K Elementary High School Sp. Ed Total Kearny Public Schools Enrollment History
SURVIVAL RATIO BIRTH – PRE-K0.519 BIRTH – K0.907 K – – – – – – – – – – Kearny Public Schools Average Survival Ratios
K Elementary High School Pre-K Special Ed Total Kearny Public School Enrollment Projections Current Organization
According to Town officials, 2 new housing projects have been approved. The Project on Hoyt Street includes 7 2-bedroom townhouses, 36 1-bedroom and 6 2-bedroom apartments. Schuyler Crossing Located at the intersection of Schuyler Avenue and Bergen Avenue is currently scheduled to include bedroom, bedroom and 12 3-bedroom units. According to the developer, the construction of these units is 1 to 2 years away. In order to project the number of public school students that would result, we used multipliers developed by the Center for Urban Policy Research at Rutgers University. The following table lists the multipliers used:
ELEMENTARYMIDDLEHIGH SCHOOL Apartments 1-Bedroom Bedroom Bedroom Townhouses 2-Bedroom Multipliers Used for Projecting Public School Children The following tables list the projected numbers of students for each project. Numbers are rounded-off, therefore, totals may appear different than the sums.
ELEMENTARYMIDDLEHIGH SCHOOLTOTAL Apartments 1-Bedroom Bedroom2103 Townhouses 2-Bedroom1001 Total4317 Projected Public School Students – Hoyt Project
APARTMENTSELEMENTARYMIDDLEHIGH SCHOOLTOTAL 1-Bedroom Bedroom Bedroom63110 Total Projected Public School Students – Schuyler Crossing
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The cohort survival calculations result in the prediction of an increase of 308 students (5.3%) over the next 5 years. If the 2 housing projects are completed as planned, it would add another 45 students to the projections for an increased enrollment of 353 students (6.1%). Most of the increase is projected at the elementary level (5.7%) followed by the high school (4.5%). The largest increases are projected for grades 6-8 at 10%. This is significant should the district move ahead with plans to redistrict to a middle school The current housing projects should not have that much of an impact. However, it is recommended that the district monitor enrollments coming from these units once they begin to be occupied. The confidence of enrollment projections decreases as we move further into the future particularly when the numbers are small. Therefore, it is recommended that enrollment changes be monitored on a yearly basis.
Enrollment Projection Enrollment History Enrollment History Enrollment Projection – District Enrollment Projection – District Enrollment projection – School Enrollment projection – School
Construction 26 Players Architect Supervises project Calls and chairs all job meetings Approves contractors invoices attesting to completion of work and/or materials on hand Approves all change orders General Contractor and Subcontractors Full-time inspector hired by the district – Clerk of the Works Always on the job site Inspects all work
Long Term Debt 28 Commits repayment over many years – Usually 30 yrs for new construction Requires a vote of the district residents - referendum State restrictions on debt incurred Takes burden off of current property taxpayers Spreads principal and interest payments out over many generations Extra millage in other states builds a construction fund that earns interest
Schools Development Authority 37 On July 9, 2008, legislation was enacted authorizing $3.9 billion in additional funding for the New Jersey Schools Development Authority (SDA).The legislation allocates $2.9 billion for 31 special-needs districts, known as SDA Districts. The SDA manages and funds 100 percent of eligible project costs in the former Abbott districts. The legislation also allocates $1 billion to leverage construction in New Jersey’s Regular Operating Districts (RODs) and includes $50 million for vocational schools. The SDA administers grants for RODs, which manage their own projects.