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London, Houston, Washington, New York, Portland, Calgary, Santiago, Bogota, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai, Moscow, Astana, Kiev,

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Presentation on theme: "London, Houston, Washington, New York, Portland, Calgary, Santiago, Bogota, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai, Moscow, Astana, Kiev,"— Presentation transcript:

1 London, Houston, Washington, New York, Portland, Calgary, Santiago, Bogota, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, Dubai, Moscow, Astana, Kiev, Porto and Johannesburg illuminating the markets Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights

2 Argus Crude Pricing Training Course – Outline Vanessa Viola & Sergio Wakim, Brazil Country Manager / Brazil Sales Manager

3 Leading international and independent price reporting organisation Founded in 1970 — over 40 years experience Privately held by employees and the founder’s family Today over 140 publications and services Over 500 employees and 40 freelancers (news journalists) Customers in 110 countries Investors in People One of top 50 fastest growing UK registered companies (Sunday Times) 19 offices around the globe… About Argus

4 London Houston Washington New York Portland Calgary Santiago Bogota Rio de Janeiro Singapore Beijing Tokyo Sydney Dubai Moscow Astana Kiev Porto Johannesburg illuminating the markets Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

5 Publications, Pricing and Data Services o Market report portfolio, various price benchmarks o Informed comment, analysis and news Events o Conferences provide deep insights into market development and offer networking opportunities Consulting Services o Bespoke research and analysis service Argus services

6 Market Context. Current and outlook ( ) Covering Reality check on supply: review of crude production around the world, by quality, highlighting medium, heavy and extra heavy barrels. By region: – Middle East – North America (Canada, USA, México) – South America – Africa (West, North and rest) – Asia – Russia Global product demand and drivers behind it Reality check on crude demand : – Refining capacity of key consuming centers in the world, with specific focus on visbreaking, coking and asphalt capacity. Same regions-countries as described above Crude flows, by quality, by destination. In between key exporting and importing centers from the prior list. By quality would include API and Sulfur Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 1

7 Market Context. Current and outlook ( ) Covering Outlook for crude supply: review of crude production around the world, by quality, highlighting medium, heavy and extra heavy barrels. By region: – Middle East – North America (Canada, USA, México) – South America – Africa (West, North and rest) – Asia – Russia Outlook for Global product demand, and drivers Outlook for crude demand: – Refining capacity of key consuming centers in the world, with specific focus on visbreaking, coking and asphalt capacity. Same regions-countries as described above Outlook for crude flows, by quality, by destination. In between key exporting and importing centers from the prior list. By quality would include API and Sulfur. Includes a review of crude quality for main grades by country, by region, with consideration for crude synergies and antagonisms for each key market, depending upon the typical crude slate (potential blending of certain streams into a particular slate) Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 1

8 Market Context. Current and outlook ( ) Putting it all together: – Impact of growing Canadian production, US shale developments, potential outcome of Mexico’s upstream and North American infrastructure in US crude slates and Latin American trade: analysis by quality, medium and heavy grades – Commercial implications of the forecasts presented: synergies and opportunities for Latin American producers – Review of shipping patterns as of today, and expected changes given the supply and demand outlook: vessel sizes and main trade flows among key exporting and importing countries (with consideration of VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, Panamax) Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 1

9 Market Context. Current and outlook ( ) Commercial Considerations for Pricing Crudes: – Review of medium and heavy crude pricing mechanisms around the world: USGC, USWC, NW Europe, Mediterranean, North Asia and South Asia. – Review of General Purpose crude pricing mechanisms around the world (includes light and medium grades). For same regions as described in prior bullet. Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 1

10 Market Context. Current and outlook ( ) Best Practices for pricing crude: specific focus on Medium and Heavy grades Review of how main crude producers (Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Canada) sell their crude, highlighting the following elements: – Spot vs contract – Where they focus their exports, how do they diversify exports – What they typically use as benchmark (price indices, formulas, pricing methodologies) – Other factors in their pricing strategy, for instance: timing, sales to third parties or not, storage and other infrastructure advantages Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 1

11 Refining Economics Methodologies for pricing Medium and Heavy crudes Best Practices for pricing crude: specific focus on Medium and Heavy grades Description of price-discovery methodologies (for companies with Linear Programming-based analysis): – Refining margin equilibrium – Price discovery via refining economics: substitution and incremental methodologies Description of price-discovery methodologies (for companies with Refining Economic- excel based analysis): – Building crude slates to evaluate – Type of comparisons recommended for price discovery Description of tools necessary to implement these refining economics methodologies: identifying main competitors by market for crudes under consideration (medium or heavy) Suggested methodologies and analysis practices to maximize revenues – Ideal combination of Refining Economics tools and analysis approach for pricing medium and heavy grades – How to maximize commercial opportunities considering all export portfolio (which might include medium grades from the sub-salt) The use of formulas and indexes while pricing medium or heavy crudes – ASCI, Maya, Venezuelan formulas, etc. Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 2

12 Screening of specific refineries that can become clients for Latin American crude producers Assessment of export potential for key Latin American producers that could seek business in USGC, USWC, Europe and Asia: – Colombian crude – Venezuelan crude – Brazilian crude – Others (Peru, Ecuador, Canada, Mexico) Screening of target refineries that could sign long-term contracts in the USGC, USWC, with consideration of commercial, logistic and configuration variables – Europe: NWE and Med – Asia: North and South Argus Crude Pricing Training Course - Module 2

13 – The training course will be provided using power point presentations. – Material will be made available to attendees in printed form and an electronic format (PDF) with watermark licensed to each specific atendee. – All historical and forecasted data included for purposes of the training course will be available in the printed and electronic material only. – Additional data, granularity or analysis requests not included in the original course will be addressed on an individual company basis in the form of future consulting. Course format

14 The course will be hosted at Arena Hotel ( Avenida Atlântica 2064, Copacabana, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). Training Agenda : 18 th and 19 th November 2013 from 9am to 5pm –morning coffee break –buffet lunch and –afternoon coffee break Facilities and Agenda

15 Steve Weber - Vice President - Petrochemical Consulting Steve has more than 30 years’ experience in the petrochemical and refining industries. Steve joined Argus DeWitt from Solomon Associates, where he served as Project Manager, Refining and Chemical Business. Prior to joining Solomon, Mr. Weber served in a variety of petrochemical and refining commercial and manufacturing roles for Total Petrochemicals USA, Inc. and its predecessors Atofina and Fina. Mr. Weber holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Chemical Engineering and an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin. At Argus DeWitt, Mr. Weber leads single client and multi-client studies for Argus DeWitt clients. Speakers

16 Jaime Brito – Vice President of Business Development for Latin America More than 16 years of experience on crude and oil product markets, as well as publications and consulting, Jaime joined Argus from PFC Energy where he served as Director of Downstream and Petrochemicals Group. Prior to that, Jaime also served as project management consulting with focus on refining economics, market fundamentals and long-term forecasting, including prices. He also advised on commercial strategies and due diligence, developed and managed analytical models for forecasting short and long term market fundamentals, crude and product flows, refinery rationalization and commercial strategies and also led a group of analysts to complete supply and demand forecasts of crude, oil products, refining operations, crude slates, market fundamentals. Jaime also delivered consulting work related to short-term market fundamentals, global economy, midstream and political developments directly related to crude and oil product markets Speakers

17 Proposal

18 – In order to make the course economically feasible, the minimun audience must be 30 atendees; – The acceptance must be sent by August 30th (when the hotel reservation expires); – Payment is due 30 days before the event; – Argus Media will generate individual invoices for each registered company; General Conditions

19 Sergio Wakim – Sales Manager Brazil Tel: Cel: /


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