Presentation on theme: "Peace: the Future. What is Peace? The world has never been so peaceful."— Presentation transcript:
Peace: the Future
What is Peace?
The world has never been so peaceful
Early human societies: ~25% 20 th century: <4% recent decades: <2% What percentage of people lose their lives due to war?
History’s trend has been a smaller and smaller percentage of the population engaged in war. And a smaller percentage of deaths for both soldiers and civilians. This will continue
4 types of conflict *Jonathan Schell
Total War WWI WWII 18001850190019502000
The early 20 th century was humanity’s experiment in gazing as closely as possible to the brink of destruction, and then pulling back.
People’s War 2
Total War WWI WWII 18001850190019502000 People’s War American Revolution
Total War WWI WWII 18001850190019502000 People’s War American Revolution Terrorism
Terrorism, by definition, is never as bad as it seems.
It is a tactic used by non-state actors too weak to wage Total War or People’s War
Thus, its rise can be seen as a (comparatively) positive trend: it signals a decline in the more violent types of conflict.
Satyāgraha ( “ Truth-force ” )
Violence sometimes achieves short- term objectives, but always leaves negative long-term consequences. Short-termLong-term Violence Sometimes works Never works Nonviolence Sometimes works Always works
Carnation revolution – Portugal People Power revolution – Philippines Velvet revolution – Czech Bulldozer revolution – Serbia Rose revolution – Georgia Orange revolution – Ukraine Purple revolution – Iraq Green revolution – Iran Tulip revolution – Kyrgyzstan Cedar revolution – Lebanon
Total War WWI WWII 18001850190019502000 People’s War American Revolution Terrorism Nonviolence
So, why the shift? Total WarPeople’s WarTerrorismNonviolence
End of colonialism
End of the Cold War
Maps & borders codified
State failure hurts everyone
Global economic ties
The increase in the value of each human life. The realization that all are equal.
What is Peace? Again,
2. Basic needs met. Percentage of world’s population living in extreme poverty
4. Health Infant mortality rate
6. Freedom for all / equality of opportunity / democracy / choice
7. Education / creative fulfillment for all World literacy rate today: 83% 1970: 63% About 175,000 new blogs are created each day
8. Universal brotherhood
9. Utopia. Everything is perfect!
This is impossible
Peace is an ever- receding goal
This is a good thing. It means our standards keep improving! "People who live in a Golden Age usually go around complaining how yellow everything looks." - poet Randall Jarrell
We are destined for peace. But it’s not a single endpoint. By the standards of history, many parts of the world are already at peace. So, the future of peace?