Presentation on theme: "Asia2k and PAGES2K – Phase II Lucien von Gunten PAGES International Project Office, Bern, Switzerland."— Presentation transcript:
Asia2k and PAGES2K – Phase II Lucien von Gunten PAGES International Project Office, Bern, Switzerland
PAGES 2K Network What is PAGES (Past Global Changes Project)? 6000 subscribers 27 Working groups Represents Paleo-science International and open PAGES facilitates integrative interdisciplinary research on the Earth system with a focus on past global and regional changes.
PAGES 2k Project Data-Model Comparison (PAGES2k and PMIP3) Reconstruction Methods Development Global 2k Open-Access Proxy Climate Database Onset of Industrial Warming in Terrestrial and Marine records … Full list on the PAGES website www.pages-igbp.org/workinggroups/2k-network/trans-regional- projects Trans-regional projects
PAGES 2k Project — Phase I The synthesis goal for Phase I was to produce regional temperature reconstructions for all 2k regions in time for inclusion in AR5. Phase 1 of the project ended with publication of the first synthesis publication: PAGES 2k consortium (2013) Continental-scale Temperature Variability During the Past Two Millennia, Nature Geoscience 6: 339-346
PAGES 2k — Temperature reconstructions 30-year standardized means (SD) (wrt 1200-1965) Most coherent feature among regions = pre-20 th C long-term cooling trend No globally synchronous warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Climate Anomaly or Little Ice Age 1971-2000 = warmest 30-year period; some regions experienced 30-year periods that were warmer
IPCC AR5 Paleoclimate chapter Data-model comparisons for the past millennium Black curves = proxy data from PAGES 2k reconstructions
Post-publication discussion IGBP’s Global Change Magazine, 2013 GC Mag article FAQ Press releases Nat Geo Google hangout Blogging
2K consortium paper Article Metrics Ranked 1 st of articles of similar age in Nature Geoscience 3 rd of all Nature Geoscience papers In the 99 percentile of all articles
PAGES 2k Project — Phase I 2k Network PAGES 2k consortium (2013) Continental-scale Temperature Variability During the Past Two Millennia, Nature Geoscience 6: 339-346 Kaufman et al. (2013) A regional view of global climate change, Global Change 81: 18-23 Neukom et al. (2014) Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium, Nature Climate Change 4: 362-367 Kaufman & PAGES 2k Consortium (2014) A Community-Driven Framework for Climate Reconstructions, Eos 95: 361-362 Wanner & Grosjean (2014) Globale Temperaturvariabilität der letzten 2000 Jahre, Physik in unserer Zeit 45: 176-180 Linderholm et al. (2014) Fennoscandia revisited: a spatially improved tree ‑ ring reconstruction of summer temperatures for the last 900 years, Climate Dynamics, online. Werner & Tingley (2015) Probabilistically constraining proxy age–depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model, Climate of the Past, accepted Africa2k Nicholson et al. (2013) Temperature variability over Africa during the last 2000 years, The Holocene 23: 1085-1094 Arctic2k Special Issue (15 articles): Kaufman (2009) Late Holocene climate and environmental change inferred from Arctic lake sediment, Journal of Paleolimnology 41 Hanhijärvi et al. (2013) Pairwise comparisons to reconstruct mean temperature in the Arctic Atlantic Region over the last 2,000 years, Climate Dynamics 41: 2039-2060 McKay & Kaufman (2014) An extended Arctic proxy temperature database for the past 2,000 years, Scientific Data 1: 140026 Asia2k Cook et al. (2013) Tree-Ring Reconstructed Summer Temperature Anomalies for Temperate East Asia Since 800 C.E., Climate Dynamics 41: 2957-2972 Australasia2k Neukom & Gergis (2012) Southern hemisphere high-resolution paleoclimate records of the last 2000 years, The Holocene 22: 501-524 Goodwin et al. (2014) A reconstruction of the Indo-Pacific sea-level pressure patterns during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Climate Dynamics 43: 1197-1219 Lorrey et al. (2014) The Little Ice Age climate of New Zealand reconstructed from Southern Alps cirque glaciers: a synoptic type approach, Climate Dynamics 42:3039-3060 Special Issue (6 articles, open): Lorrey (2014) Australasian climate over the last 2,000 years: The PAGES Aus2k Synthesis, Journal of Climate EuroMed2k Luterbacher et al. (2012) A Review of 2000 Years of Paleoclimatic Evidence in the Mediterranean, 87-185 (Book Chapter) LOTRED-SA Neukom & Luterbacher (2011) Climate Variability in the Southern Hemisphere, Global Change 76: 26-29 Neukom et al. (2010) Multi-Centennial Summer and Winter Precipitation Variability in Southern South America, Geophysical Research Letters 37: L14708 Neukom et al. (2010) Multiproxy Summer and Winter Surface Air Temperature Field Reconstructions for Southern South America… Climate Dynamics 37: 35-51 Special Issue (13 articles): Masiokas et al. (2012) Climate Variations in South America Over the Last 2000 Years, Climate of the Past Special Issue (14 articles): Villalba et al. (2009) Long-Term Multi-Proxy Climate Reconstructions and Dynamics in South America, P 3 281 North America2k Trouet et al. (2013) A 1500-year Reconstruction of Annual Mean Temperature for Temperate North America… Environmental Research Letters 8 Ocean2k Ocean2k Project Members (2012) Ocean2k: Placing historical marine conditions in the context of the past 2000 years, CLIVAR Exchanges 58: 15-17 Bakker et al. (2014) Temperature trends during the Present and Last Interglacial periods – a multi-model-data comparison, Quaternary Science Reviews 99: 224-243 Martrat et al. (2014) Similarities and dissimilarities between the last two deglaciations and interglaciations in…, Quaternary Science Reviews 99: 122-134 Tierney et al. (2015) Tropical sea surface temperature for the past four centuries reconstructed from coral archives, Paleoceanography, online More papers in review and in preparation.
PAGES 2k Project — Phase I > 40 articles and workshop reports in PAGES Magazine > 50 meetings and session 3 outreach events 2 videos 1 movie Public Database Community of more than 560 subscribers
multi-proxy, pairwise comparison multi-proxy, composite plus scale trees, point-by-point regression trees & pollen, principal components multi-proxy, ensemble multi-proxy, principal components glacier ice, composite plus scale Arctic Europe Asia North America South America Australasia Antarctica
PAGES 2k Project — Phase I Temperature Some regions not covering full 2k period Reconstruction not always spatial Some regions not multi-proxy Selection criteria not uniform Hydroclimate! Trans-regional analyses Data-model comparison Uniform synthesis products Gaps after Phase I Global T Database Focus for regional groups for Phase 2 Snythesis products
PAGES 2k Project — Phase II GOALS · Regional 2000 year long Temp and Precip fields · Trans-regional synthesis products · Data-model comparison and diagnostic analyses · Completion of a central 2k database for T and P
PAGES 2k Project — Phase II GOALS – practically Data base: For T 2k regional working groups include all records that meet the common criteria. Field reconstructions: Climate field reconstructions is the goal. But where data coverage is less dense index reconstructions for sub- regions should be made. High vs low resolution: Fusing annual-scale and lower-resolution time series remains an important goal, but given the methodological difficulties, separate annually resolved and lower-resolution reconstructions can be targeted. Precipitation: To avoid the problem of co-linearity of temperature and moisture, it might be necessary to reconstruct targets that combine multiple climatic influences.
PAGES 2k Project — Phase II Timeline 2015 T Database finalized P Database finalized (isotopes?) T field reconstructions by regional groups Data-model T comparison as a PMIP/2k collaboration 2016 P field reconstructions by regional groups Reconstruction and analysis of inter-regional P patterns Data-model P comparison as a PMIP/2k collaboration Trans-regional products all finalized Final synthesis (synthesis papers and special issue in Climate of the Past) (for inclusion in PAGES proposals to the US and Swiss NSF to be written in 2017) 2017? Large 2k conference?
PAGES 2k Project — Phase II Summary meeting of 9 and 13 March 2015 Special issue (e.g. Climate of the past). Opening in mid 2016, closing at the end of 2016. Regional papers and Trans-Regional Studies. HC reconstructions with regional focus. Each region decides what HC parameter to reconstruct and what data and methods best suited. Deadline mid-2016. Isotope data collection as trans-regional synthesis product. B. Konecky volunteered to co-lead and is looking for co-leaders and regional experts. To be used for Data-model exercises. Data quality control crucial. Quality control procedures should be implemented for all 2k studies before publication. Meeting set up worked well. This type of meeting should take place more often.