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1A.1 MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1 Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training.

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Presentation on theme: "1A.1 MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1 Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training."— Presentation transcript:

1 1A.1 MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1 Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation for Asia and Pacific Countries 20~24 March 2006 Jakarta, Indonesia

2 1A.2 1. What is it? A coupled gas-cycle/climate model (MAGICC) that drives a spatial climate change scenario generator (SCENGEN); MAGICC: Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change; SCENGEN: SCENario GENerator; Enabling non-expert users to investigate the implications of alternative emissions scenarios for future global and regional climate change; Allowing the exploration of emissions scenarios and scientific uncertainties in projecting future global and regional climate change; An upgraded version of MAGICC/SCENGEN2.4; Model developed by Tom Wigley, GUI by Seth McGinnis, funded by U.S. EPA through Stratus Consulting

3 1A.3 Library of Emissions Scenarios Gas Cycle Models User Choices of Model Parameters Atmospheric Composition Changes Global-mean Temperature and Sea Level Output Global-mean Temperature And Sea Level Model User Choices Of Model Parameters SCENGEN THE MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 : MAGICC

4 1A.4 THE MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 : SCENGEN Global-mean Temperature from MAGICC Regionalization Algorithm Library of GCM Data Sets Library of Baseline Climatology Data ( ) User Choices GCMs to use, Future time slice, Region,… Regional Climate or Climate Change Output

5 1A.5 Using MAGICC/SCENGEN

6 1A.6 MAGICC: Selecting emissions scenarios

7 1A.7 MAGICC: Selecting emissions scenarios (continued)

8 1A.8 MAGICC: Selecting Forcings

9 1A.9 MAGICC: Displaying Results

10 1A.10 MAGICC: Displaying Results (continued)

11 1A.11 Running SCENGEN

12 1A.12 Running SCENGEN (continued)

13 1A.13 SCENGEN: Analysis

14 1A.14 SCENGEN: Model Selection

15 1A.15 SCENGEN: Area of Analysis

16 1A.16 SCENGEN: Select Variable

17 1A.17 SCENGEN: Emissions s cenario

18 1A.18 SCENGEN: Map Results

19 1A.19 SCENGEN: Numerical Results INTER-MOD S.D. : AREA AVERAGE = % (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA) INTER-MOD SNR : AREA AVERAGE = (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA) PROB OF INCREASE : AREA AVERAGE =.473 (FOR NORMALIZED GHG DATA) GHG ONLY : AREA AVERAGE = % (FOR SCALED DATA) AEROSOL ONLY : AREA AVERAGE = % (FOR SCALED DATA) GHG AND AEROSOL : AREA AVERAGE = % (FOR SCALED DATA) *** SCALED AREA AVERAGE RESULTS FOR INDIVIDUAL MODELS *** (AEROSOLS INCLUDED) MODEL = BMRCD2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = CCC1D2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = CCSRD2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = CERFD2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = CSI2D2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = CSM_D2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = ECH3D2 : AREA AVE =.151 (%) MODEL = ECH4D2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = GFDLD2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = GISSD2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = HAD2D2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = HAD3D2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = IAP_D2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = LMD_D2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = MRI_D2 : AREA AVE =.065 (%) MODEL = PCM_D2 : AREA AVE = (%) MODEL = MODBAR : AREA AVE = (%)

20 1A.20 To obtain the MAGICC/SCENGEN4.1 software, please contact Dr Tom Wigley National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Boulder, Colorado U.S.A


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