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What is the Average Annual Crime Rate in the United States? David McDowall School of Criminal Justice University at Albany, SUNY 135 Western Avenue Albany,

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Presentation on theme: "What is the Average Annual Crime Rate in the United States? David McDowall School of Criminal Justice University at Albany, SUNY 135 Western Avenue Albany,"— Presentation transcript:

1 What is the Average Annual Crime Rate in the United States? David McDowall School of Criminal Justice University at Albany, SUNY 135 Western Avenue Albany, NY

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4 Rates of Murder, Rape, Robbery, Assault, Burglary, and Motor Vehicle Theft,

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11 Equations for time series processes Stationary process: Y t = b 0 + a t Random walk: Y t = Y t-1 + a t Deterministic trend: Y t = b 0 + b 1 (time t ) + a t Stochastic trend: Y t = b 0 + Y t-1 + a t

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19 Homicide Rate, Model: ΔY t = b 0 + b 1 (ΔY t-1 ) + e t ParameterEstimateStandard Error t b b _____________________________________________________ Rape Rate, Model: ΔY t = b 0 + b 1 (ΔY t-1 ) + e t ParameterEstimateStandard Error t b b ____________________________________________________ Robbery Rate, Model: ΔY t = b 0 + b 1 (ΔY t-1 ) + e t ParameterEstimateStandard Error t b b _____________________________________________________ Assault Rate, Model: ΔY t = b 0 + b 1 (ΔY t-1 ) + b 2 (ΔY t-2 ) + e t ParameterEstimateStandard Error t b b b _____________________________________________________ Burglary Rate, Model: ΔY t = b 0 + b 1 (ΔY t-1 ) + e t ParameterEstimateStandard Error t b b _____________________________________________________ Motor Vehicle Theft Rate, Model: ΔY t = b 0 + b 1 (ΔY t-1 ) + e t ParameterEstimateStandard Error t b b

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