# What is the Average Annual Crime Rate in the United States? David McDowall School of Criminal Justice University at Albany, SUNY 135 Western Avenue Albany,

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What is the Average Annual Crime Rate in the United States? David McDowall School of Criminal Justice University at Albany, SUNY 135 Western Avenue Albany, NY 12222 mcdowall@albany.edu

Rates of Murder, Rape, Robbery, Assault, Burglary, and Motor Vehicle Theft, 1933- 2009

Equations for time series processes Stationary process: Y t = b 0 + a t Random walk: Y t = Y t-1 + a t Deterministic trend: Y t = b 0 + b 1 (time t ) + a t Stochastic trend: Y t = b 0 + Y t-1 + a t

Homicide Rate, 1925-2000 Model: ΔY t = b 0 + b 1 (ΔY t-1 ) + e t ParameterEstimateStandard Error t b 0 -.0061.0121 -.51 b 1.4567.10484.36 _____________________________________________________ Rape Rate, 1933-2001 Model: ΔY t = b 0 + b 1 (ΔY t-1 ) + e t ParameterEstimateStandard Error t b 0.0298.01102.72 b 1.2323.12051.93 ____________________________________________________ Robbery Rate, 1933-2001 Model: ΔY t = b 0 + b 1 (ΔY t-1 ) + e t ParameterEstimateStandard Error t b 0.0116.0199.56 b 1.4708.10344.55 _____________________________________________________ Assault Rate, 1933-2001 Model: ΔY t = b 0 + b 1 (ΔY t-1 ) + b 2 (ΔY t-2 ) + e t ParameterEstimateStandard Error t b 0.0286.01302.20 b 1.3016.11882.54 b 2.2934.11882.47 _____________________________________________________ Burglary Rate, 1933-2001 Model: ΔY t = b 0 + b 1 (ΔY t-1 ) + e t ParameterEstimateStandard Error t b 0.0147.0149.99 b 1.4827.10464.61 _____________________________________________________ Motor Vehicle Theft Rate, 1933-2001 Model: ΔY t = b 0 + b 1 (ΔY t-1 ) + e t ParameterEstimateStandard Error t b 0.0122.0183.66 b 1.5086.10474.86

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