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Replacement WCF parameter Review Group 176, December 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "Replacement WCF parameter Review Group 176, December 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 Replacement WCF parameter Review Group 176, December 2007

2 Page 2Theme Date Department Requirement  Replace WCF with a parameter based on other information EXCLUDING SND  There are a number of possibilities, these slides concentrate on a weather based alternative to assess possibilities  Does not preclude other potential solutions  High level analysis only for a representative LDZ

3 Page 3Theme Date Department WCF Performance over 2006/7 gas year

4 Page 4Theme Date Department Scaling Factor Performance over gas year 2006/7

5 Page 5Theme Date Department Assumptions  Looking for a replacement for the WCF parameter that can be slotted into the algorithm  Assumed that DAF can be configured at a similar level as currently  Approximated an LDZ ALP and DAF equivalent (AQ splits, EUC WSENS values are not available)

6 Page 6Theme Date Department WCF and LDZ Actual Demand

7 Page 7Theme Date Department WCF Trials (1)  Looked at formatting a WCF parameter using ‘weather’ type options  CWV  SNCWV  WSENS  Used in various combinations  Difference from seasonal normal  Change from previous day  Weighted and lagged temperature movements  WSENS/ACT used as a base level

8 Page 8Theme Date Department WCF Trials – base level

9 Page 9Theme Date Department Work in progress…

10 Page 10Theme Date Department Issues to consider  Whether the level of accuracy can be achieved – better aggregate SF level but increased variability  Holiday and weekend impacts  Whether a simple enough solution can be provided  Impacts on DAF  Requirement for data at EUC level to assess final accuracy  WSENS  Aggregate AQ

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