1. Replacement WCF parameter Review Group 176, December 2007

2. Page 2Theme Date Department Requirement  Replace WCF with a parameter based on other information EXCLUDING SND  There are a number of possibilities, these slides concentrate on a weather based alternative to assess possibilities  Does not preclude other potential solutions  High level analysis only for a representative LDZ

3. Page 3Theme Date Department WCF Performance over 2006/7 gas year

4. Page 4Theme Date Department Scaling Factor Performance over gas year 2006/7

5. Page 5Theme Date Department Assumptions  Looking for a replacement for the WCF parameter that can be slotted into the algorithm  Assumed that DAF can be configured at a similar level as currently  Approximated an LDZ ALP and DAF equivalent (AQ splits, EUC WSENS values are not available)

6. Page 6Theme Date Department WCF and LDZ Actual Demand

7. Page 7Theme Date Department WCF Trials (1)  Looked at formatting a WCF parameter using ‘weather’ type options  CWV  SNCWV  WSENS  Used in various combinations  Difference from seasonal normal  Change from previous day  Weighted and lagged temperature movements  WSENS/ACT used as a base level

8. Page 8Theme Date Department WCF Trials – base level

9. Page 9Theme Date Department Work in progress…

10. Page 10Theme Date Department Issues to consider  Whether the level of accuracy can be achieved – better aggregate SF level but increased variability  Holiday and weekend impacts  Whether a simple enough solution can be provided  Impacts on DAF  Requirement for data at EUC level to assess final accuracy  WSENS  Aggregate AQ