Presentation on theme: "The Albanian SUT, the new tool for higher reliability of National Accounts Support for the Alignment of Albanian Statistics with EU standards Ledjon Shahini."— Presentation transcript:
The Albanian SUT, the new tool for higher reliability of National Accounts Support for the Alignment of Albanian Statistics with EU standards Ledjon Shahini 20 February 2014
Objectives of Activity A2 Supply - Use Table (SUT) 2009 Current values (balanced) Constant values (prices 2008) Symmetric Input-Output Tables (SIOT) 2009
Output Imports; Trade and transport; margins; Net product taxes; ITT Intermediate Consumption FD Household consumption; Government consumption; Exports; Gross fixed capital formation; Changes in inventories; VA Compensation of employees; Production taxes; Operating surplus; Supply TableUse Table Activities (NACE) Products (CPA) Background: SUT
Results of Activity A2 Balanced Supply Use Table at current prices for 2009 and 2008 at A60*P60, A25*P25 and A13*P13 Not balanced Supply Use Table at constant prices for 2009 at A60*P60 Symmetric Input-Output Tables for 2009 at 25*25 Detailed methodological report A list of improvements to be done
Results: Supply table 2009
Results: Use table 2009
SUTCP: GDP(O &E)
Improvements recommended Improvement of output and IC breakdown by products; Compile IC breakdown for activities currently missing (NIPSH, private health and education, transport and insurance); Improve trade and transport margins by product; Improve product breakdown for final demand categories (government consumption, travel services); Compile changes of inventory by products; Process detailed information on exports and imports of services; Improve the deflators used for the SUT at constant prices;
Improvements done: Production matrix Products CPA 4 and 6 digit Activities Nace Rev 1.1 (2 digit) Total 123…j…n 1p 11 p 12 p 13 …p 1j …p 1n p 1. 2p 21 p 22 p 23 …p 2j …p 2n p 2. 3p 31 p 32 p 33 …p 3j …p 3n p 3. …………………… ip i1 p i2 p i3 …pij…p in p i. …………………… mp m1 p m2 p m3 …p mj …p mn p m. Totalep.1 p.2 p.3 …p.j …p.n p.. m >500 n=60
Imports Data for imports of goods and services are taken from customs (reconciled with foreing trade sector) and BoP. Imported goods are treated at CN 8 digit code and Imported services are treated at CPA 2 and 4 digit (depends by specification given). For year 2010 there are 6,748 goods products and 22 services products Imports Products CN codeTotal 1p 1. 2p 2. 3p 3. …… ip i. …… mp m. Totalp..
Trade & Transport Margin Trade Margin To estimate trade margin, trade has been divided in Nace rev.1.1 at 2 digit groups (50, 51, 52). For 50 and 52 data are taken from quarterly surveys on trade enterprises and are at Coicop 4 digit level. For 51 we don’t have data from quarterly surveys on enterprises. Structure of wholesale trade margin is built using sales and purchases books of enterprises (taken from Tax Authority). Trade & Transport Margin ProductsTotal 1p 1. 2p 2. 3p 3. …… ip i. …… mp m. Totalp.. Transport Margin For transport margin we don’t have a specific survey. To distribute transport margin in products is used the structure of expenditure done for transport from enterprises. In this case is assumed that the product transported is the same as the main activity of enterprises.
Taxes Taxes on imports are treated at CN 8 digit code Taxes on domestic production are treated at CPA 4 digit. Products Taxes on importsTaxes on Domestic production Total ExcisesDutyVATExcises Specific Taxes on products VAT 1E 1. D 1. V 1. E 1. S 1. V 1. T 1. 2E 2. D 2. V 2. E 2. S 2. V 2. T 2. 3E 3. D 3. V 3. E 3. S 3. V 3. T 3. …………………… iE i. D i. V i. E i. S i. V i. T i. …………………… mE m. D m. V m. E n. S n. V n. T m. TotalE.E. D.. V.. E.E. S.. V.. T..
Intermediate Consumption matrix Products CPA 2 digit Activities Nace Rev 1.1 (2 digit) Total 123…j…n 1p 11 p 12 p 13 …p 1j …p 1n p 1. 2p 21 p 22 p 23 …p 2j …p 2n p 2. 3p 31 p 32 p 33 …p 3j …p 3n p 3. …………………… ip i1 p i2 p i3 …pij…p in p i. …………………… mp m1 p m2 p m3 …p mj …p mn p m. Totalep.1 p.2 p.3 …p.j …p.n p.. Data for distribution of IC are taken from SBS and Financial Statements. Note: In the SBS of 2013 the cost structure is more detailed, but it covers only industries. m=60 & n=60
Final Demand matrixes Exports: Exported goods are at CN 8 digit code and exported services are at CPA 2 and 4 digit (depends by specification). Exports Products CN codeTotal 1p 1. 2p 2. …… ip i. …… mp m. Totalp.. Household Consumption: To estimate Household Consumption the data are taken from HBS at most detailed level (coicop 6 digit, more than 370 products) with GDP (E) adjustments. COICOP 6 digitTotal 1p 1. 2p 2. …… ip i. …… mp m. Totalp.. Government: For Government consumption data are taken from NA D unit responsible for general government sector. CPA 2 digitTotal 1p 1. 2p 2. …… ip i. …… mp m. Totalp..
Final Demand matrixes (cont…) Gross Fix Capital Formation The information for GFCF is at the level shown in the table. For machinery and equipment we use the data from imports to distribute et product level. GFCF Total Agriculture: p 1. Livestock p 2. Orchards & Vineyards p 3. Forestry … Geological Prospecting … Construction … Machinery and equipments p i. Transport means … Software & Databases p m. Total p.. Changes in inventory Data for changes in inventory are taken from Financial Statements and SBS. For each of the categories is used an alternative approach to distinguish by products level. Changes in inventory In (000) lek Inventary Beginning of Year End of Year 1Row Materials 2Work in process 3Finished goods 4Goods for resale 6Total
Analyzes Discrepancy < 5% - automatic balances VV 5% < Discrepancy < 10% - manual balances Discrepancy > 10% - back and check all data
SUT constant prices For all products (m=518) of output and IC (m=60) a specific deflator is used related as much as possible with the products: Some of the deflator used are: specific CPI specific PPI CCI Other indices Products CPA 4 and 6 digit OutputDeflator Output Constant 1p 1. I 1. p c1. 2p 2. I 2. p c2. 3p 3. I 3. p c3. ………… ip i. I i. p ci. ………… mp m. I m. p cm. Totalep.. Products CPA 2 digit ICDeflator IC Constant 1p 1. I 1. p c1. 2p 2. I 2. p c2. 3p 3. I 3. p c3. ………… ip i. I i. p ci. ………… mp m. I m. p cm. Totalep.. The production and IC matrix
SUT constant prices (cont…) Imports: For most of products is used specified UVI and for other adjusted UVI. For services is used respective HICP ex. for year 2010 there are 6,747 goods imported and 27 services. For 2117 (which cover 83 % of total imports) is used specific UVI and for the rest is used adjusted UVI. Imports Products CN code Total Current UVI Total Constant 1p 1. UVI 1. p c1. 2p 2. UVI 2. p c2. 3p 3. UVI 3. p c3. ………… ip i. UVI i. p ci. ………… mp m. UVI m. p cm. Totalp.. Exports: For goods is used Export price Indexes. In the cases where isn’t a specific index is used a grouped index For services is used respective CPI Exports Products CN code Total Current EPI Total Constant 1 p 1. EPI 1. p c1. 2 p 2. EPI 2. p c2. 3 p 3. EPI 3. p c3. … ……… i p i. EPI i. p ci. … ……… m p m. EPI m. p cm. Total p.. Imports and Exports
Household To estimate Household Consumption in constant prices for each of products is used CPI at COICOP 4 digit. Results are reconciled with GDP (E). COICOP 6 digit ValueDeflator Constant Values 1p 1. I 1. p c1. 2p 2. I 2. p c2. 3p 3. I 3. p c3. ………… ip i. I i. p ci. ………… mp m. I m. p cm. Totalep.. Government To estimate Government Consumption in constant prices is used an adjusted deflator from output matrix at CPA 2 digit level. CPA 2 digit ValueDeflator Constant Values 1p 1. I 1. p c1. 2p 2. I 2. p c2. 3p 3. I 3. p c3. ………… ip i. I i. p ci. ………… mp m. I m. p cm. Totalep.. SUT constant prices (cont…) Household & Government Consumption in Constant Prices
Gross Fix Capital Formation For most part of groups are used adjusted deflator from output matrix at CPA 2 digit level. GFCFValueDeflator Constant Values Agriculture: p 1. I 1. p c1. Livestock p 2. I 2. p c2. Orchards & Vineyards p 3. I 3. p c3. Forestry ……… Geological Prospecting ……… Construction ……… Machinery and equipments p i. I i. p ci. Transport means ……… Software & Databases p m. I m. p cm. Total p.. For machinery and equipment we use the data from imports to distribute et product detailed level and respective UVI as deflator. SUT constant prices (cont…)
m n, this means when a new product is in period t the tax is considered as volume effects and if a product disperse in period t it means that it is price effect. Products Taxes in Constant CN list for period t (1) CIF Value at Constant at constant prices for period t (2) VAT at period t (3) CN list for period t-1(4) CIF Value for period t-1 (5) VAT for period t-1 (6) VAT ratio for period t-1 (7)=(6)/(5) VAT in constant for period t (8)=(7)*(2) 1p 1. Vp 1.,t p 1.,t p 1. Vp 1.,t-1 p 1.,t-1 p1,t-1./Vp1,t-1. p1,t-1./Vp1,t-1. * Vp 1.,t 2p 2. Vp 2.,t p 2.,t p 2. Vp 2.,t-1 p 2.,t-1 p2,t-1./Vp2.,t-1 p2,t-1./Vp2.,t-1 *Vp 2.,t 3p 3. Vp 3.,t p 3.,t p 3. Vp 3.,t-1 p 3.,t-1 p3,t-1./Vp3,t-1. p3,t-1./Vp3,t-1.* Vp 3.,t …… …… … ……… … ip i. Vp i.,t p i.,t p i. Vp i.,t-1 p i.,t-1 pi.,t-1 /Vpi,t-1. pi.,t-1 /Vpi,t-1.* Vp i.,t …… …… … ……… … kp m. Vp m,,t p m,,t. p n. Vp n,t-1. p n.,t-1 pn.,t-1 /Vpn,t-1. pn.,t-1 /Vpn,t-1.* Vp m,,t Totalp.. The same procedure is done for all taxes, subsidies and margins only that instead of Cif value are correspondent values. Taxes in Constant Prices SUT constant prices (cont…)
Analyzes of SUT in constant prices Discrepancies in constant prices can be effected from not well specified deflator or because of big changes on structures between two linked years VV
Future work Set up regular annual compilation of Supply Use Table at current prices at constant prices of previous year Compilation of Supply Use Tables allow: Comparisons of different methods of GDP Double deflating method of GDP by production approach Increase quality of National Accounts