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Presented by: Prof. G.V. Gruza, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE, Roshydromet and RAS) Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE, Roshydromet.

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Presentation on theme: "Presented by: Prof. G.V. Gruza, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE, Roshydromet and RAS) Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE, Roshydromet."— Presentation transcript:

1 Presented by: Prof. G.V. Gruza, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE, Roshydromet and RAS) Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE, Roshydromet and RAS)

2 Russian Federation In the Russian Federation climatic researches are conducted within: Roshydromet Roshydromet (Federal Hydrometereology and Environmental Monitoring Service), RAS RAS (the Russian Academy of Sciences), Universities and Institutes some Universities and Institutes

3 climate system monitoring and assessment of climate variability for the major regions of Russia and Globe;climate system monitoring and assessment of climate variability for the major regions of Russia and Globe; assessment of global changes in a chemical compound of the atmosphere, including concentration of greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone;assessment of global changes in a chemical compound of the atmosphere, including concentration of greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone; assessment of climate changes using physical and mathematical modeling;assessment of climate changes using physical and mathematical modeling; ecological, social and economic impacts of climate changesecological, social and economic impacts of climate changes applied climatologyapplied climatology

4 The Program «Changes in Environment and Climate: natural catastrophy» combines the climate change researches within subprogram combines the climate change researches within subprogram «Climate Changes: influence of extraterrestrial and terrestrial factors» «Climate Changes: influence of extraterrestrial and terrestrial factors» such as: Studies of influence of terrestrial and extraterrestrial factors on changes in a chemical compound and structure of the upper, middle and lower atmosphereStudies of influence of terrestrial and extraterrestrial factors on changes in a chemical compound and structure of the upper, middle and lower atmosphere The diagnosis of regional catastrophic climate changes including detection natural and anthropogenic factorsThe diagnosis of regional catastrophic climate changes including detection natural and anthropogenic factors Mathematical modeling of the possible catastrophic climate changesMathematical modeling of the possible catastrophic climate changes Global variations of the geomagnetic fields and lunar tides and their relationships with climate changesGlobal variations of the geomagnetic fields and lunar tides and their relationships with climate changes Investigation of the dangerous hydrometeorological eventsInvestigation of the dangerous hydrometeorological events

5 national research programs on some studies into Fourth National Communications as It would be useful to strengthen national research programs on some studies and to submit their results into Fourth National Communications as Analysis and improvement of data homogeneity for the period of instrumental observations. In particular, for Russia, as well as for other countries with cold winters and significant fraction of frozen precipitation, improvement of homogeneity of atmospheric precipitation data is actual.Analysis and improvement of data homogeneity for the period of instrumental observations. In particular, for Russia, as well as for other countries with cold winters and significant fraction of frozen precipitation, improvement of homogeneity of atmospheric precipitation data is actual. For all countries the problem of climate changes detection in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme processes and events is actual, andFor all countries the problem of climate changes detection in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme processes and events is actual, and An assessment of abilities of the modern climatic models to reproduce the extremes.An assessment of abilities of the modern climatic models to reproduce the extremes. such as

6 Has the observed climate become more variable and/or extreme?

7 A small change in average temperature can cause a large change in the frequency of temperature extremes

8 Likewise, a change in variability can cause a change in the frequency of extremes

9 However, the largest change in temperature extremes can occur when both average and variance change

10 To estimate, whether slow changes in characteristics of variability and extremity exist, we should eliminate slow variations of means in observation time series. As a model of slow variations of means, i.e., trends, we attempt the following time series of “dynamic normals”: – low-pass filtered series Rm; – linear trend (regression on the time) Ry; – regression on the carbon dioxide concentration Rc; – regression on the global annual mean temperature Rg.

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12 For the estimation of low-frequency variability and existence of monotonic trends of variability we use time series of absolute values of deviations from “dynamic norms” or from regressions mentioned above.

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14 Spectral analysis: NH- T Dm Am

15 T r e n d s in absolute values of deviations of the mean surface temperature from their regression on the averaged CO2-concentration

16 | T-regr(CO 2 )|, Year (Jan.-Dec.),

17 | T-regr(CO 2 )|, Cold (Oct.-Mar.),

18 | T-regr(CO 2 )|, Warm (Apr.-Sep.),

19 systematic observations RosHydromet is responsible for systematic observations on climate. Following the UNFCCC guidelines, the NC3 includes an annex with information on the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). Terrestrial observations are conducted in conjunction with specific projects only, as there is not a permanent system required by the GCOS. We hope to include separate report on our GCOS activity into THE FOURTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION

20 Observational Network Over Russia (Climate Monitoring in IGCE) RUSSIA S455-monthly S223-daily

21 Number of meteorological stations, presented in IGCE-climatic database for the period from 1886 to 2000 Globe (max=1383) f.USSR (max=455)

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23 What is planned to do: 1. To improve the basic climatic datasets: * To extend a set of hydrometeorological variables * To increase a network density up to 600 stations (from 200) for air temperature and up 1000 stations with precipitation data * To improve data homogeneity and quality. * To provide a time resolution till "daily" one.

24 2. To investigate and monitor the regional climates changes and variability: * To create sets of regional indicators (indices) to be used in regular regional climate monitoring of a climate state, climate variability and extremity. * To develop the methods for a joint analysis of the observed and modeled data to realize a model validation and model quality assessment * To attribute the possible natural and anthropogenic reasons responsible for the climate changes observed.


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