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The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. AgriSeta.

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Presentation on theme: "The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. AgriSeta."— Presentation transcript:

1 The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. AgriSeta Awards 2010 Future of opportunity The fonts, font sizes, colours & styles have been set according to the guidelines laid down by the Marketing Division. Please do not change any of the above.

2 AGENDA Where does the sector find itself? Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Macro economic environment o Global o Domestic Agricultural economic environment The consumer and future trends o BFAP o Other global trends

3 Recession costs Crisis not costless and recovery not certain? Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Global Economy

4 IMF forecasts Economic activity on the mend Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Global Economy

5 Recovery profile of advanced economies How long will it take the SA economy to close the “output gap” Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Global Economy

6 Still experiencing a hangover? Recent recession somewhere between downswings of ’81 and ‘96. Surprisingly strong GDP growth in Q1 probably not sustainable. Do not expect double dip BUT growth could be relatively slow deviation in GDP relative to trend last 3 downswings Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Domestic Economy

7 Not creating jobs fast enough Jobless growth Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Domestic Economy

8 Household debt How long will deleveraging of consumers take Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Domestic Economy

9 Household deleveraging Can take up to 5 years?? Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Domestic Economy

10 Agric in a squeeze Agriculture’s terms of trade is at it’s lowest levels in more than a decade Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Agriculture

11 Gross Income Earned Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Agriculture

12 Gross Income Earned Field crops Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Agriculture Source: DoA, 2010

13 Gross Income Earned Livestock Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Agriculture Source: DoA, 2010

14 Gross Income Earned Horticulture Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Agriculture Source: DoA, 2010

15 Food consumption forecast in SA Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: BMI, SA Food and Drink Report Agriculture

16 What does the SA consumer look like? Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: BFAP, Agricultural Outlook 2010 The SAARF LSM Segments: Proportion of SA adult population and average monthly household income in 2009 Source: SAARF (2010a) Consumer Trends

17 The SA consumer – class mobility Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: BFAP, Agricultural Outlook 2010 LSM class mobility: All adults during the period 2004 to 2008 Source: SAARF AMPS data for the period 2004 to 2009 Consumer Trends

18 Global Perspective Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: BFAP, Agricultural Outlook 2010 “successful food products usually rely on ‘double-positioning strategies’, where food products are designed to address at least two (or more) consumer food trends” Global trends: Health/ Wellbeing Indulgence Ethical and environmental concerns Simplicity Convenience Trend- “Pattern of gradual change in a condition, output or process, or average or general tendency of a series of data points to move in a certain direction over time, represented by a line or a curve on a graph.” Consumer Trends

19 Future trends BRAND FABRIC Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011 Global Trends

20 Future trends BRAND FABRIC INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish. Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011 Global Trends

21 Future trends INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish. Wine vendor donates clean water Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011 Global Trends

22 Future trends INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish. In Japan Kit Kat releases 9 regional favourites Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011 Global Trends

23 Future trends INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish. Organic soups delivered weekly by bicycles Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011 Global Trends

24 Future trends INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish. British retailer issues bonds with returns paid in chocolate Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011 Global Trends

25 Future trends BRAND FABRIC INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish. URBANY Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011 Global Trends

26 Future trends URBANY Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011 Global Trends

27 Future trends BRAND FABRIC INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish. URBANY ECO EASY Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011 Global Trends

28 Future trends ECO EASY Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011 Global Trends

29 Future trends BRAND FABRIC INNOVATION INSANITY - Invent, improve, copy…or perish. URBANY ECO EASY TRACKING AND ALERTING Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Source: Consumer Watch 2010 and 2011 Global Trends

30 What would the crystal ball hold for Agriculture over the medium term? More partnerships/ JV’s and linkages throughout the value chain Food prices will probably increase Consolidation to continue Global demand and supply transitions Shift in traditional marketing strategies Energy opportunity Water challenge Press Ctrl+d to duplicate this slide The information contained in this document is confidential, for internal use only and may not be distributed outside the Standard Bank Group. Global Trends

31 Medium term Forecasts – Standard Bank Group Economics Source: Standard Bank Group Economics South Africa, Macroeconomic perspectives, 6 September 2010

32 Thank you for your time. Lumé Kleynhans


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