Presentation on theme: "By: Claudia Goldin and Cecilia Rouse"— Presentation transcript:
1By: Claudia Goldin and Cecilia Rouse Orchestrating Impartiality: The Impact of “Blind” Auditions on Female MusiciansBy: Claudia Goldin and Cecilia Rouse
2The Typical OrchestraAbout 100 members but may vary between 90 and 105The positions are nearly identical between orchestras and over timeWhat does this mean to the study?The proportion of women in an orchestra can be analyzed without a concern for changes in the composition of occupations and the number of workers. For example, an increase in the number of women from 1 to 10 cannot arise because the number of harpists (a female-dominated instrument) has greatly expanded. It must be b/c of the proportion of female within many groups has increased.
3Orchestras Examined Top Tier (the “Big Five”): Second Tier Boston Symphony Orchestra (BSO)Chicago Symphony OrchestraCleveland Symphony OrchestraNew York Philharmonic (NYPhil)Philadelphia OrchestraSecond TierLos Angeles Symphony Orchestra (LA)San Francisco Philharmonic (SF)Detroit Symphony OrchestraPittsburg Symphony Orchestra (PSO)
4Noteworthy DataCurrently, NYPhil has the highest percentage of females at 35% after being the lowest (generally at zero) for decadesFemale increases in orchestras is even more remarkable because of low turnover rates.An average of 4 “new hires” per year for top-ranked Chicago and NYPhil and about 6 for the others.The number of new hire was small after 1960 and declines over time.The proportion of new players who were women must have been (and was) exceedingly high.
5Changes in Gender Share of New Hires Since the early 1980’s the share female among new hires has risen.About 35% for the BSO and ChicagoAbout 50% for NYPhilCompare this to the rate of less than 10% before 1970.
6Main Question:Did the screen matter in a direct manner or did the increase in women hires come as the result of a host of other factors, including the appearance of impartiality or an incresed pool of female contestants coming out of music schools?So, where the most selective music schools producing substantially more female students in the early 1970s?Only have 1 data set of the Julliard School of Music, and with the exception of the brass section, there is no noticeable increase.
7Could Changes in Audition Procedures Unveil Hiring Bias? Quotes concerning women in orchestras:“women have smaller techniques than men”“are more temperamental and more likely to demand special attention or treatment”“the more women (in an orchestra), the poorer the sound”Zubin MehtaConductor of LA Symphony ( ) and NYPhil ( )“I just don’t think women should be in an orchestra.”Note: author of paper notes that the person she quotes suggests Mehta’s views changed because about 45% of new hires were females while he was at NYPhil.It can be convincingly argues that female musicians have historically faced considerable discrimination.
8The Audition Process: Today The orchestra advertises auditionsInterested applicants submit resume and often a tape of compulsory musicIn some, may audition live, even if previously rejected based on tape3 Rounds:PreliminarySemifinalFinalsTwo Main Types:LiveBlind
9Live Auditions The semifinal round is sometimes live The final round is almost always live and involves the attendance and input of the music director.Committee advances all deemed qualified, so no limit to number of musicians in each roundThe final round generally results in a hire, but sometimes does not
10Blind Auditions Almost all preliminary rounds are now blind. A screen is used to hide the identity of the player from the committee.Examples:Large pieces of heavy (but sound-porous) clothSometimes suspended from the ceiling of the symphony hallSimilar to large room dividersTo ensure even more impartiality, some roll out a carpet leading to center stage to muffle footsteps that could betray genderOnly the personnel manager knows the mapping from number to name
11Is Blind Really Blind?Can trained musicians discern candidates based on different playing styles?Ultimately, it would be vary rare for this to happen, as it would have to be a well-known candidate with an unusually distinctive musical style.
12Data and MethodsActual audition records of 8 major symphony orchestrasTo preserve full confidentiality, do not reveal names of orchestrasRely on first name of the musician in determining sexDetermined sex of 96% of those auditioningExcluded incomplete auditionsConsidered each round separatelyRestrictions exclude 294 rounds and 1,539 individualsFinal sample: 7,065 individuals and 588 audition rounds (from 309 separate auditions)Records obtained from personnel managers and the orchestra archives.Incomplete: no women auditioned, only women auditioned, rounds from which no one was advanced and the second final round, if existed, for which the candidates played with the orchestra
13Data and Methods Cont… Second data set: Orchestra personnel rosters Musician considered new to the orchestra if he or she had not previously been a regular member of that orchestraExcluded temporary and substitute musicians, as well as harpists and pianistsFinal sample of 1,128 new orchestra members from 1970 to 1996
14Effect of Screen of Likelihood of Being Advanced Raw data:Without a variable for orchestral “ability”, women fare less well in blind auditions than otherwiseThe relative of success of female candidates (compared to male) appears worse for blind than for not-blind auditions and holds for every roundLimited Sample:For those who auditioned both with and without a screen, women’s success rate is almost always higher in blind auditions
15Effect of Screen of Likelihood of Being Advanced Examples:Preliminary round with no seminfinals:Blind:28.6% of women advance; 20.2% of men advanceNot-blind:19.3% of women advance; 22.5% of men advanceSince these are the same women, a woman enhances her own success rate by 9.3% by entering a blind preliminary roundThese differences are large relative to the average rate of successWomen’s success rate increased by 14.8% for blind finals and overall success rate is 1.6 times higher for blind auditions
16Controlling for “Ability” Used an individual fixed-effects strategy to control for contestant “ability” that does not change with timeCan do so because 42% of individuals in sample were in more than 1 round in the data set and 6% competed both with and without a screen24% of the musicians competed in more than one audition
17“Ability” FindingsThe screen had a positive effect on the likelihood that a woman is advanced from the preliminary round (when there is no semifinal) and from the finalsFor preliminaries not prceded by a semifinal, woman had a 11% better chance of selectionFor those in the finals, chances of winning increased by about 33%The effect in the semifinal round remains strongly negative.
18Potential BiasesCould the females that are improving over time be those that switch from not-blind to blind auditions?Could the growth rate of their “ability” be faster than that of men?What if those individuals who get hired at their first audition are more able musicians than those who audition multiple timesCould the orchestras that use screens be less discriminatory against women than those that do not?What if they did a bad job picking the sex of participants based on their first names?Responses follow list of Biases within the paper on the following pages ( ), except #4 which is just they estimated it.Bias #2: so they do not contribute to the identification of the effect in the presence of individual fixed effects
19Effect of the Screen on the Hiring of Women Compare auditions that are blind versus those that do not use the screen at all or for early rounds only.Women are about 5% more likely to be hired than are men (not significant)Effect is nil when there is a semifinal round.Impact for all rounds is about 1% (large standard errors and not significant)But, given that the chance of winning an audition is 3%, the authors need more data to be able to estimate significantly and even a 1% increase is largeIn addition, these estimates demonstrate a difference stimulated by a completely blind processNote that a Blind audition contains all rounds that use the screen
20Example for Clarification on Hiring Results Two Regimes:Not Blind: no screen; Blind: with screenNot Blind: 20% female candidatesBlind: 30% female candidatesIn 1970s, 10% of new hires were womanAssume 30 candidates enter each auditionSuccess rate for not-blind will be for female and for typical maleIn blind regime, % of new hires that are female is 35% (approx. figure for last 10 yrs)The success rate must now be for females and males decreased to .0310Therefore, success rate for woman had to increase by almost 2.2% when going from not-blind to blindNote at the end: And the authors point estimate is that about half of that increase
21Conclusions from Example The point estimate of 1% for the result of the effect of screening describes half of the increase in the success rateThe increase of being hired out of audition accounts for 66% of the total increase of females among new hiresHalf of the 66% comes from the switch to blind auditionsOther half could be from a greater acceptance of female musicians by music directorsThe remaining 34% is a result of a higher percentage of females as a part of the applicant pool.
22ConclusionsThe audition process began changing in the 1970s and physical screens were increasingly used to conceal candidate’s identity and ensure impartialityThe weight of the evidence persuaded the author’s and is what they decided to emphasizeThey find that:the screen increases - by 50% - the probability that a woman will be advanced from certain preliminary roundsIncreases by severalfold the likelihood a woman will be selected in the final round