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ADEME Energy and Climate Visions 2030-2050 Eric Vidalenc – Economics and Foresight Department ADEME - French Agency for Environment and Energy Management.

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Presentation on theme: "ADEME Energy and Climate Visions 2030-2050 Eric Vidalenc – Economics and Foresight Department ADEME - French Agency for Environment and Energy Management."— Presentation transcript:

1 ADEME Energy and Climate Visions 2030-2050 Eric Vidalenc – Economics and Foresight Department ADEME - French Agency for Environment and Energy Management

2 Objective of this morning session : Focus on methods used to frame scenarios (less on emphasizing the outcome of a given model or approach) Example: ADEME Visions 2030 2050 Context : work launched by the President of ADEME in 2012 (ADEME CEO F.Loos before the DNTE – National debate leaded in 2013) A collaborative exercise (a small coordination team and about sixty experts involved) Visions…and not scenarios (roadmap with political steps…) built on our core skills : renewable energies and energy efficiency. 4 tools/models used for quantification issues : Technical : MEDPRO Electrical system: EOD Agriculture and land use : Mosut Macroeconomic evaluation : 3ME 2 Objective and context

3 Visions 2030 2050 :A kind of tryptic A technical description (2012) A macroeconomic evaluation (2013) A social translation in the daily life of households (2014) 3

4 Two Visions  Same scope… Energy consumption: buildings, transportation (but international air and maritime bunkers), agriculture and industry Renewable energy production  …yet distinct perspectives 2030: current trends « + » a significant increase in energy efficiency and renewables : exploratory, « what if », foresight, positive method 2050: the 75%-decrease-target is set, then achievement conditions are identified : « how » to reach it, backcasting, normative method At last, there is an issue to identifie a possible gap between the two perspectives 4

5 Methodology  Technical scenarios (model : MEDPRO, MOSUT, EOD) 1. Inventory of renewable resources and energy efficiency potential with sectoral experts 2. Definition of a set of possibilities, with respect to technical and economic criteria (ROI identified) 3. Identification of values and consistency checking 4. Energy consumption and renewable energy production projections  Economic conditions and macroeconomic impacts (model: THREEME) 1. Identification of necessary price-signals 2. Simulation of the macroeconomic impact  Social translation 1.Identification of type of households to describe 2.Quantification of all the daily actions in terms of energy and CO2 5

6 Summary  Distinct perspectives 2030: an ambitious yet realistic vision 2050: a 75%-decrease (compared with 1990) in GHG emissions  Focus: energy (consumption and production) and GHG emissions  Key-messages 2030: energy efficiency and the share of renewables could increase significantly 2050: the fourfold decrease in GHG emissions is achievable with efficiency, renwables and some change in our habits and behaviour  Remarks Sources of figures  2010: INSEE, CCTN, SOeS, CEREN  2030 - 2050: ADEME estimates (but exogeneous variables) Reference years: 2010 for energy; 1990 for GHG emissions 6

7 Main results 7  Energy  GHG emissions -40% by 2030 -75% by 2050

8 Exogeneous variables vs ADEME’s assumptions  Exogeneous variables (*) henceforth « hh »  ADEME’s assumptions Unit consumption: energy efficiency Demand: organizational efficiency, non-disturbing changes in ways of living (ex: miles/year/cap, number of TV sets/hh, etc.) 8 201020302050References Macro Population (m)62.968.574.1INSEE Number of person/household (*) Brent (US$2010/bbl)78135230IEA GDP (%/year)1.8%CAS Sectoral New homes (m/year)0.3100.350.3DGEC Energy-intensive industrial output (t/year)depends on the productDGEC Share of nuclear power77%48%18%-48%

9 2030 - Residential  Urban planning: share of multi-family new buildings increases (from 42% in 2010 to 50%)  Thermal uses Energy-efficient retrofitting: 0.5 m homes/year Comfort: unchanged, if not improved (e.g. air-conditioning) Equipment  Heat-pumps (20% of space heating useful energy consumption),  Thermodynamic water-heaters, solar water heaters (5% of hot water useful energy consumption)  Electrical appliances: Stock of conventional appliances (fridge, washing-machine, TV,etc.) as efficient in average in 2030 as today’s most efficient appliances Complementary electricity consumption (cell phone, IT’s, etc.) is constant (1,000kWh/year/household) 9

10 2030 – Residential - Results Per-use consumption Type of delivered energy 10

11 2030 – Commercial and public services buildings  Organisation: floor area/employee is constant  Thermal uses Building stock thermal performance and equipments are significantly improved Comfort is increased (50% of employee work in air-conditioned buildings)  Business-related electricity consumption 10% decrease per employee by 2030 compared with 2010  Result: a 16% decrease in final energy consumption 11

12  Paradigm: constant individual mobility and modal split  Freight: a 20% increase in transported mass (tkm) 12 2030 – Transportation

13  Passenger transportation: emergence of mobility services (account for 10% of intra-city passenger flows )  Results in terms of sales and stock : 13

14 2030 – Transportation - Results Final energy consumptionType of energy 14

15 2030 – Industry  Assumption: industrial recovery Energy-intensive products: pre-crisis (physical) output quantity is recovered, if not slighlty increased Other industries: grow roughly according to GDP growth  Energy-efficiency: 20% in average (less than 1%/year) 15

16  Recycling (materials as well as heat losses) taken into account  Result: a 10% decrease in final energy consomption 16 2030 – Industry - Results

17 2030 – Food, forest and agriculture  No-regret changes of habits A 2/3 decrease in food wastages Current trends are protracted (e.g. decrease in meat consumption)  Energy efficiency: a 25% decrease in energy consumption of agriculture buildings, 20% decrease use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers  Land management : land sealing pace is two-fold decreased, + 0,2 Mha of forest in 2030  Results : - 11% in livestock related impacts (CH4, N2O), and an low decrease in energy consumption 17

18 2030 – Energy production (1)  Resources: Solid biomass and methanization are both significantly increased Land use competition is not exacerbated (3Mtoe of biofuels, compare to 2,4) 18

19  Renewable power Wind: On-shore (34 GW) and off-shore (12 GW) PV: 33 GW (very close to RTE New mix in terms of installed capacity but with 20% less on demand) Remark: the load curve hourly matches power generation 19 2030 – Energy production (2) Focus on electrical system

20 2030 – Energy production - Results (3) 20  Result Share of renewables: 35% Share of renewable power: 46%

21 Evaluation of 2030 Vision 21

22 2050 – An overview  Differences with the 2030 scenario The 75% decrease in GHG emissions is set as a target Changes in ways of living allowed when convergence of interests  Buildings: energy efficient stock + reinforced densification (stop of urban sprawling after 2030, and 50/50 between house  Transportation: mobility services develop (30% of urban flows) + GasVeh (of which 55% of biomethane) and electricity, 15% less of mobility/pers/year  Food and agriculture: French diet heads towards FAO’s recommendations  Tertiary : 20% decrease in surface area per employee  Industry: 2010-2030 trends are protracted  Results: Final energy consumption is two-fold decreased 70% of renewables (final energy) 22

23 23 2050 – Food

24 24 2050 – Transportation

25 25 2050 – Transportation

26 2050 – Energy consumption 26

27 2050 – Renewables N.B. concerning power generation, the share of renewable power ranges from 47% to 77%, according to the assumed share of nuclear power 27

28 Tools : 3ME, a multisectoral macroeconomic model (new Keynesian) Method : Define a baseline - reference scenario, consider the technical assumptions 28 Macro Economic evaluation ADEME – OFCE - TNO

29 Energy balance Signal-price / Carbon tax 325€/tCO2 in 2050 Total : 750€/tep in 2050 (must be compared to the current implicit tax level : 243€t/CO2 on gasoline) 29

30 Investments 30

31 GDPJobs 31

32 Concluding remarks  Beyond energy and GHG NO x, SO 2,PM 2.5 and COVNM three-fold decreased by 2030 Likely (yet not quantified) reduction in other externatities : Transportation: noise, road casualties, congestion, health (cycling) Buildings: thermal comfort Food: meat-overconsumption-related deseases  Economics An additional 300€/tCO 2 price-signal is required by 2050 (in ADEME scenario, not in absolute terms) Macroeconomic impacts: Recessionary: increase in energy prices (loss of competitiveness) and decrease in conventional energy production Expansionary: decrease in fossil energy imports, increase in new business activities (renewables, high-quality building retrofitting) THREEME-based macroeconomic simulations show that the global impact on both GDP and employment is positive by 2050 32

33 A description of the daily life and behaviour of 8 families in different context (age, children or not, localization, income…) 4 pages of narrative description and an energy balance (kWh and CO2) for each household compatible with the global ADEME vision 33 Social translation Just released

34 Attempt to conclude : Science for energy scenarios ? Scenario is a way (with differents tools) to look forward And if science is : Rigorous and checkable method investigation Open to criticism and discussions Probably Yes But if science is : Reproductible … Maybe not Because between two periods : we can see huge changes in knowledge, technologies (V2G, PtG…), values, belief, learning cost curve… 34

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