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Hyogo Framework for Action

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Presentation on theme: "Hyogo Framework for Action"— Presentation transcript:

0 Senior Advisor, Japan International Cooperation Agency
JICA’s Cooperation for DRR / HFA activities & HFA 2 = 1st Arab Conference on DRR = March 2013 TAKEYA Kimio Senior Advisor, Japan International Cooperation Agency

1 Hyogo Framework for Action
Overall Goal: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters Three Strategic Goals: The integration of disaster risk reduction into sustainable development policies and planning Development and strengthening of institutions, mechanism and capacities to build resilience to hazards The systematic incorporation of risk reduction approaches into the implementation of emergency preparedness, response and recovery Priorities for Action: HFA1 Make Disaster Risk Reduction a Priority HFA2 Know the Risks and Take Action HFA3 Build Understanding and Awareness HFA4 Reduce Risk HFA5 Be Prepared and Ready to Act 1

2 JICA’s Support meet to the Priority Action
The projects related to priority action 4 are increasing rapidly compared to others. It entails the best mix of structural and non-structural measures. Priority 4 Priority 2 Priority 5 Priority 3 Priority 1

3 Trend in JICA’s Activity
(Number of projects) Majority of JICA Projects up to 90’s : Structural measures from : Non structural measures Projects by combination of structural and non-structural measures are increasing. 3

4 Typical Disaster Management Cycle & DRR
・Hazard mapping, evacuation drill ・Organization Reinforcement ・Establishment of Disaster Management Plan ・Development of Early Warning System ・Reconstruction and Rehabilitation of Infrastructure ・Mental Health Care Mitigation Preparedness Response Recovery ・Dispatch of Rescue team ・Provision of Rescue supply Disaster

5 Example of Practical DRR Support
Understand the risk Adapt for the Risk Prepare, Mitigate the Risk Response Plan Urban Planning Building Codec Transportation Anti Earthquake Hospital Education ・・・ ・・・

6 Algeria Seismic Micro Zoning Survey damages of building

7 Expected Death Number

8 Expected Bridge Damage

9 Expected Water supply Damage

10 Expected Electricity Supply Damage

11 Business Continuity Plan for the “Country”
Practical Support Understand the risk Business Continuity Plan for the “Country” Adapt for the Risk Prepare, Mitigate the Risk Response Plan Urban Planning Building Codec Transportation Anti Earthquake Hospital Education ・・・ ・・・

12 Three keys for Successful DRR
Self Support or Self Defense Mutual Support Public Support

13 JICA’s another Support to Mainstreaming the National Disaster Management for Asia
Sri Lanka Support to Capacity Development for “Disaster Management Center” of Sri Lanka Thailand Support to Capacity development for “Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM)” Indonesia Support to National Disaster Management Plan & Regional Disaster Management Plan through BNPB, National Disaster Management Agency Capacity Development Philippines Support Office of Civil Defense Capacity Development Public Support

14 Disaster obstruct Development
At least, Build-back-better Development Normal Development Obstructed by Disasters, far away from MDGs Disaster Recovery & Development Disaster Disaster Time

15 History of flood control in Tone River basin (400years ago)
Up to 15th Century, Tone River crossed the Kanto Plain from north to south and flew into Tokyo Bay Tone River Kinu River Watarase River Kokai River From 1594 to 1654, Tone River was connected to Pacific Ocean by eastward channel ・After the flood in 1910, flood control measures in upper and middle reaches has changed from “flood control allowing inundation” to “sequential levees confinement” ・After this change, the maximum discharge in the Tone River Channel has increased, which became the main challenge of flood control in Tone River Basin Tone River Kinu River Watarase River Kokai River ・15世紀までの利根川は、関東平野を南流し、首都東京(江戸)のある東京湾に流下していました。 ・この利根川を60年かけて(1594年~1654年)太平洋へ直接注ぐように東へと付け替えました(利根川東遷)。 ・一方、1910年の洪水を契機に、中上流域の治水方策が「(中条堤上流の)氾濫を織り込んだ洪水調節方式」から「連続堤防方式」に転換させることになりました。 ・これ以降、利根川中流の洪水の負担が増大することになり、これに河川整備やダム、遊水地の建設など様々な対策を組み合わせて対応することが、利根川流域の治水対策の主要な課題となりました。 Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

16 Reduction of flood damages in Japan by continuous investment
Number of fatalities This seems rare case in the world to spent so much money to prevention 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Area inundated (ha) 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Number of fatalities and inundation area have dramatically been reduced in Japan due to continuous investment in and efforts for flood mitigation. Source: Water Disaster Statistics, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism

17 What is the barrier for mainstreaming the DRR
Development Normal Development Obstructed by Disasters, far away from MDGs At least,“build-back-better” Disaster but DRR investment is much cheaper than recovery Recovery & Development Disaster Disaster How to convince & mainstream DRR? Need to show the evidence ! Time

18 Economical Model which can measure
JICA developing Economic Model to show the effectiveness of DRR investment Economical Model which can measure GDP change income differential and Gini coefficient change in Lorenz curve With & Without DRR investment Named

19 Differences with/without DRR investment to GDP
without disaster Effect of DRR investment With DRR Investment      (with disaster) Sustainable development GDP Indicators to evaluate the entire benefit (A) Disaster Event By the conventional benefit evaluation method, benefit of DRR investment is evaluated with collective amount of the society. (GRP and/or GDP) Enlarged view Without DRR Investment (with disaster) 復旧資金不足による復旧遅延・経済活動の停滞 →貧困の罠の継続 Stop of economic activity by direct damage ⇒ Expansion of poverty Stagnation of economic activity and the recovery delay due to lack of funds → continuation of poverty trap Time By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in poverty, widening inequality, from the trap of poverty

20 Differences with/without DRR investment to Lorenz curve
1 Most Rich With DRR Invest Relative Frequency Income Cumulative Better Off 45度線 Near Poor Without DRR Invest Poor Extreme Poor 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Household No Cumulative Relative Frequency

21 Show the evidence to Policy Maker
Mainstreaming DRR to Goverment Policy without disaster GDP With DRR Investment      (with disaster) Sustainable development Effect of DRR investment Indicators to evaluate the entire benefit (A) Disaster Event By the conventional benefit evaluation method, benefit of DRR investment is evaluated with collective amount of the society. (GRP and/or GDP) Enlarged view 復旧資金不足による復旧遅延・経済活動の停滞 →貧困の罠の継続 Without DRR Investment (with disaster) Stop of economic activity by direct damage ⇒ Expansion of poverty Stagnation of economic activity and the recovery delay due to lack of funds → continuation of poverty trap Show how Disaster Risk Reduction Investment account for Development Time By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in poverty, widening inequality, from the trap of poverty

22 Deliver as a Computer Software

23 Combination of Structural Measures and Non-Structural Measures
Effectiveness Investment and Effectiveness Target Safety Level Levee Barrage Reservoir System Levee Investment

24 Combination of Structural Measures and Non-Structural Measures
Effectiveness Goal Safe and/or Resilient Mitigation Adaptation Non-Structural Measures Re-Foresting Flood Proof Life Style Appropriate Land Use Flood Forecasting Target Safety Level Early Warning Evacuation Insurance Structural Measures (Basic Infrastructures) Levee Barrage Reservoir System Levee Control, Protection Investment 24 24

25 The ability to recognize risk and take action properly
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1 Was there anything out of our mind? The ability to recognize risk and take action properly Risk Literacy

26 The ability to recognize risk and take action properly
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1 Was there anything out of our mind? The ability to recognize risk and take action properly Risk Literacy

27 Tsunami Evacuation Situation in general
Population of damaged area of 3 prefectures, 1km from coast is 460,000, 3km 1.0million, 5km 1.5million Total causalities were around 26,000 460,000 residents lived in the tsunami affected area so that evacuation ratio can be estimated more than 90 % This high evacuation ratio achieved by legend transmission, by Tsunami Early Warning System and by evacuation drill effort 65% of casualties were aged people, over 65 y.o.

28 Successful Evacuation by Students in Kamaishi City
The students started evacuation promptly and voluntarily, following their experiences of evacuation drills. The students decided to evacuate further to higher ground based on their own observation of situation. (Source: Research Center for Disaster Prevention in the Extended Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Gunma University)

29 Combination of Structural Measures and Non-Structural Measures
Effectiveness Climate Variability? Climate Change? Target Safety Level Levee How to prepare excess flood? or Project is not completed yet Barrage Reservoir System Levee Investment

30 How about the magnitude of big earthquake
How about the magnitude of big earthquake? E/Q happens with long return period Lesson learned of E/Q transferred to next generation? If no, you can learn from examples C:\DATA\DATA\日本の知見\耐震実験\www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.html

31 How about the magnitude of big earthquake
C:\DATA\DATA\日本の知見\耐震実験\www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.html

32 Variety of Early Warnings for Tsunami in Japan
TV and Radio, emergency warning Cell phone warning for earthquake Registered earthquake broadcast service Loud speaker evacuation order to community others

33 Every Natural Disaster has forerunning phenomenon then we can predict disaster & let people evacuate
実写 奈良県 Even debris flow We can predict

34 JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 2
Was there anything out of our mind? Continuous Adaptation to Change continuous improvement to deal with changing risk

35 “multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense
JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 3 Was there anything out of our mind? “multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense Redundancy High raised road stopped Tsunami

36 No or Low Regret Investment for Sustainable Development
JICA’s Lesson Learnt from MEGA Disaster =2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood= Was there anything out of our mind? “multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense The ability to recognize risk and take action properly Redundancy Risk Literacy Capacity of society To cope with disaster Three Principles for No or Low Regret Investment for Sustainable Development Continuous Adaptation to Change continuous improvement to deal with changing risk

37 JICA’s Mainstreaming DRR initiative
There are so many project which forgot to pay attention to DRR, same as Thailand industrial zone JICA internally planning to mobilize the process mainstreaming DRR into every JICA project Set the mandatory process to all project, “Disaster Risk Assessment”

38 Structure of Post HFA HFA 2 HFA 1 ~2015 Post MDG /SDG
Prepared by Kenso Hiroki, ICHARM Goals and targets HFA 2 New experiences, lessons and progress HFA 1 ~2015 Items that were not recognized as subjects of HFA

39 Proposing tools for Post MDG/HFA
Convince Policy Maker by DR2AD Model Political Leaders Three Principles approach for Low Regret Investment Practi- tioner Disaster Risk Assessment to all projects Donors

40 Thank you for your attention


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