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JICA’s Cooperation for DRR / HFA activities & HFA 2 = 1 st Arab Conference on DRR = March 2013 TAKEYA Kimio Senior Advisor, Japan International Cooperation.

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Presentation on theme: "JICA’s Cooperation for DRR / HFA activities & HFA 2 = 1 st Arab Conference on DRR = March 2013 TAKEYA Kimio Senior Advisor, Japan International Cooperation."— Presentation transcript:

1 JICA’s Cooperation for DRR / HFA activities & HFA 2 = 1 st Arab Conference on DRR = March 2013 TAKEYA Kimio Senior Advisor, Japan International Cooperation Agency

2 1 1 Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters The integration of disaster risk reduction into sustainable development policies and planning Development and strengthening of institutions, mechanism and capacities to build resilience to hazards The systematic incorporation of risk reduction approaches into the implementation of emergency preparedness, response and recovery HFA1 Make Disaster Risk Reduction a Priority HFA2 Know the Risks and Take Action HFA3 Build Understan ding and Awareness HFA4 Reduce Risk HFA5 Be Prepared and Ready to Act Three Strategic Goals: Priorities for Action: Hyogo Framework for Action Overall Goal:

3 2 JICA’s Support meet to the Priority Action The projects related to priority action 4 are increasing rapidly compared to others. It entails the best mix of structural and non-structural measures. Priority 4 Priority 2 Priority 5 Priority 3 Priority 1

4 3 3 (Number of projects ) Majority of JICA Projects up to 90’s : Structural measures from 2000 : Non structural measures Projects by combination of structural and non-structural measures are increasing. Trend in JICA’s Activity

5 4 Typical Disaster Management Cycle & DRR Response Recovery Mitigation Preparedness Disaster ・ Dispatch of Rescue team ・ Provision of Rescue supply ・ Reconstruction and Rehabilitation of Infrastructure ・ Mental Health Care ・ Hazard mapping, evacuation drill ・ Organization Reinforcement ・ Establishment of Disaster Management Plan ・ Development of Early Warning System

6 Example of Practical DRR Support 5 Understand the risk Adapt for the Risk Response Plan Urban Planning Building Codec EducationAnti Earthquake Hospital Transportation Prepare, Mitigate the Risk ・・・

7 Algeria Seismic Micro Zoning Survey damages of building 6

8 Expected Death Number 7

9 Expected Bridge Damage 8

10 Expected Water supply Damage 9

11 Expected Electricity Supply Damage 10

12 Practical Support 11 Understand the risk Adapt for the Risk Response Plan Urban Planning Building Codec EducationAnti Earthquake Hospital Transportation Prepare, Mitigate the Risk ・・・ Business Continuity Plan for the “Country”

13 12 Three keys for Successful DRR Self Support or Self Defense Mutual Support Public Support

14 JICA’s another Support to Mainstreaming the National Disaster Management for Asia Sri Lanka –Support to Capacity Development for “Disaster Management Center” of Sri Lanka Thailand –Support to Capacity development for “Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM)” Indonesia –Support to National Disaster Management Plan & Regional Disaster Management Plan through BNPB, National Disaster Management Agency Capacity Development Philippines –Support Office of Civil Defense Capacity Development 13 Public Support

15 Disaster obstruct Development 14 Disaster Time Development Obstructed by Disasters, far away from MDGs Normal Development Recovery & Development At least, Build-back-better

16 Up to 15 th Century, Tone River crossed the Kanto Plain from north to south and flew into Tokyo Bay From 1594 to 1654, Tone River was connected to Pacific Ocean by eastward channel ・ After the flood in 1910, flood control measures in upper and middle reaches has changed from “flood control allowing inundation” to “sequential levees confinement” ・ After this change, the maximum discharge in the Tone River Channel has increased, which became the main challenge of flood control in Tone River Basin Tone River Kinu River Watarase River Kokai River Tone River Kinu River Watarase River Kokai River History of flood control in Tone River basin (400years ago) Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

17 Number of fatalities 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: Water Disaster Statistics, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism 350, , , , , ,000 50, Area inundated (ha) Number of fatalities and inundation area have dramatically been reduced in Japan due to continuous investment in and efforts for flood mitigation. Reduction of flood damages in Japan by continuous investment This seems rare case in the world to spent so much money to prevention

18 What is the barrier for mainstreaming the DRR 17 Disaster Time Development Obstructed by Disasters, far away from MDGs Normal Development Recovery & Development but DRR investment is much cheaper than recovery At least,“build-back-better” How to convince & mainstream DRR? Need to show the evidence !

19 Economical Model which can measure –GDP change –income differential and Gini coefficient change in Lorenz curve With & Without DRR investment Named 18 JICA developing Economic Model to show the effectiveness of DRR investment

20 GDP By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in poverty, widening inequality, from the trap of poverty Enlarged view 復旧資金不足によ る復旧遅延・経済 活動の停滞 → 貧困の罠の継続 without disaster Effect of DRR investment By the conventional benefit evaluation method, benefit of DRR investment is evaluated with collective amount of the society. (GRP and/or GDP) Indicators to evaluate the entire benefit (A) Disaster Event With DRR Investment ( with disaster ) Sustainable development Without DRR Investment ( with disaster ) Time Stop of economic activity by direct damage ⇒ Expansion of poverty Stagnation of economic activity and the recovery delay due to lack of funds → continuation of poverty trap Differences with/without DRR investment to GDP

21 Differences with/without DRR investment to Lorenz curve 度線 Extreme Poor Most Rich Poor Near Poor Better Off With DRR Invest Without DRR Invest Income Cumulative Relative Frequency Household No Cumulative Relative Frequency

22 GDP By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in poverty, widening inequality, from the trap of poverty Enlarged view 復旧資金不足によ る復旧遅延・経済 活動の停滞 → 貧困の罠の継続 without disaster With DRR Investment ( with disaster ) Sustainable development Effect of DRR investment By the conventional benefit evaluation method, benefit of DRR investment is evaluated with collective amount of the society. (GRP and/or GDP) Indicators to evaluate the entire benefit (A) Disaster Event Without DRR Investment ( with disaster ) Time Stop of economic activity by direct damage ⇒ Expansion of poverty Stagnation of economic activity and the recovery delay due to lack of funds → continuation of poverty trap Show the evidence to Policy Maker Show how Disaster Risk Reduction Investment account for Development Mainstreaming DRR to Goverment Policy

23 Deliver as a Computer Software 22

24 23 Levee Combination of Structural Measures and Non-Structural Measures Investment Effectiveness Investment and Effectiveness Levee Barrage Reservoir System Targe t Safety Level

25 24 Targe t Safety Level Combination of Structural Measures and Non-Structural Measures Investment Effectiveness Levee Barrage Reservoir System Structural Measures (Basic Infrastructures) Non-Structural Measures Re-Foresting Appropriate Land Use Flood Proof Life Style Flood Forecasting Early Warning Evacuation MitigationAdaptation Insurance Control, Protection Goal Safe and/or Resilient Goal Safe and/or Resilient

26 JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1 Was there anything out of our mind? The ability to recognize risk and take action properly

27 Was there anything out of our mind? The ability to recognize risk and take action properly JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1

28 27 Population of damaged area of 3 prefectures, 1km from coast is 460,000, 3km 1.0million, 5km 1.5million Total causalities were around 26, ,000 residents lived in the tsunami affected area so that evacuation ratio can be estimated more than 90 % This high evacuation ratio achieved by legend transmission, by Tsunami Early Warning System and by evacuation drill effort 65% of casualties were aged people, over 65 y.o. Tsunami Evacuation Situation in general

29 28 Successful Evacuation by Students in Kamaishi City (Source: Research Center for Disaster Prevention in the Extended Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Gunma University) The students started evacuation promptly and voluntarily, following their experiences of evacuation drills. The students decided to evacuate further to higher ground based on their own observation of situation.

30 29 Levee Combination of Structural Measures and Non-Structural Measures Investment Effectiveness Levee Barrage Reservoir System Targe t Safety Level Climate Variability? Climate Change? How to prepare excess flood? or Project is not completed yet

31 How about the magnitude of big earthquake? E/Q happens with long return period Lesson learned of E/Q transferred to next generation? If no, you can learn from examples C:\DATA\DATA\ 日本の知見 \ 耐震実験 \www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.htmlC:\DATA\DATA\ 日本の知見 \ 耐震実験 \www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.html 30

32 How about the magnitude of big earthquake C:\DATA\DATA\ 日本の知見 \ 耐震実験 \www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.htmlC:\DATA\DATA\ 日本の知見 \ 耐震実験 \www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.html 31

33 32 Variety of Early Warnings for Tsunami in Japan TV and Radio, emergency warning Cell phone warning for earthquake Registered earthquake broadcast service Loud speaker evacuation order to community others

34 実写 奈良県 Every Natural Disaster has forerunning phenomenon then we can predict disaster & let people evacuate Even debris flow We can predict

35 34 continuous improvement to deal with changing risk Was there anything out of our mind? JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 2

36 Was there anything out of our mind? 35 “multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense High raised road stopped Tsunami JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disaster from 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 3

37 JICA’s Lesson Learnt from MEGA Disaster =2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood= Was there anything out of our mind? 36 “multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense The ability to recognize risk and take action properly Capacity of society To cope with disaster continuous improvement to deal with changing risk Three Principles for No or Low Regret Investment for Sustainable Development

38 JICA’s Mainstreaming DRR initiative There are so many project which forgot to pay attention to DRR, same as Thailand industrial zone JICA internally planning to mobilize the process mainstreaming DRR into every JICA project Set the mandatory process to all project, “Disaster Risk Assessment” 37

39 Structure of Post HFA Post MDG /SDG HFA 1 ~ 2015 New experiences, lessons and progress Items that were not recognized as subjects of HFA Goals and targets Prepared by Kenso Hiroki, ICHARM HFA 2

40 39 Proposing tools for Post MDG/HFA Convince Policy Maker by DR 2 AD Model Convince Policy Maker by DR 2 AD Model Disaster Risk Assessment to all projects Disaster Risk Assessment to all projects Three Principles approach for Low Regret Investment Three Principles approach for Low Regret Investment

41 40 Thank you for your attention


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