Presentation on theme: "Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST"— Presentation transcript:
1Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST 생산운영관리Ch. 5. Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services (전략적 생산용량 계획)Hansoo Kim (金翰秀)Dept. of Management Information Systems, YUST
2이번주 까지 했어야 하는 일들… 읽기: Chapter 17, and Chapter 5, 5s Play with MS-Project®
3Ch.17 중요 요점 What is Project? What is Project Management? Project Planning, Scheduling, and ControllingMatrix Organization,WBS (Work-Breakdown-Structure)Network DiagramAON, AOAGantt ChartPERT/CPMFinding Critical PathForward Calculation/Backward CalculationProject Management ProblemIs the project on schedule, ahead of schedule, or behind schedule?Is the project over or under cost budget?Are there enough resources available to finish the project on time? If the project must be finished in less than the scheduled amount of time, what is the way to accomplish this at least cost?Crashing
4X X X OM Overview Class Overview (Ch. 0) Operations, Productivity, and Strategy(Ch. 1, 2)XProject Management(Ch. 17)StrategicCapacityPlanning(Ch. 5, 5S)ProcessSelection/ Facility Layout; LP(Ch. 6, 6S)XMgmt of Quality/ Six Sigma Quality(Ch. 9, 10)Queueing/Simulation(Ch. 18)Supply Chain Management(Ch 11)Location Planningand Analysis(Ch. 8)JIT &Lean Mfg System(Ch. 15)Demand Mgmt Forecasting(Ch 3)Aggregated Planning(Ch. 13)Inventory Management(Ch. 12)MRP & ERP(Ch 14)Term Project
6학습목표 생산용량계획의 중요성을 설명할 수 있다 생산용량을 정의하고 측정하는 방법을 토의 한다 유효생산용량의 결정요소들을 기술한다생산용량 대안 개발과 관련된 주요 고려사항들을 토의한다생산용량 대안을 평가하는 데 유용한 도구들을 간단히 기술한다
7Terms (용어) 영어 중국어 瓶颈作业 预期币值标准 盈亏平衡点 完全信息预期价值 运营能力 运营能力缓冲 现金流 规模不经济 Bottleneck operation瓶颈作业Expected monetary value(EMV)criterion预期币值标准Break-even point盈亏平衡点Expected value of perfect information(EVPI)完全信息预期价值Capacity运营能力LaplaceCapacity cushion运营能力缓冲MaximaxCash flow现金流MaximinDiseconomies of scale规模不经济Minimax regretEconomies of scale规模经济Payoff table结算表Outsource外包Regret (opportunity loss)Present value现值Risk风险Bounded rationality有限理性Sensitivity analysis灵敏度分析CertaintySuboptimization局部最优化Decision tree决策图标Uncertainty7
8Capacity(运营能力, 생산용량) Planning Capacity (생산용량): 한 생산 단위가 처리할 수 있는 최대 부하 the upper limit or ceiling on the load that an operating unit can handle.Eg. # of bicycle assembled in an hr생산용량에 포함되는 요소들Equipment (설비)Space (공간)Employee skills (작업능력)생산용량계획 수립시 기본질문들… The basic questions in capacity handling are:What kind of capacity is needed? (어떤 종류의 생산용량이 필요한가?)How much is needed? (얼마나 필요한가?)When is it needed? (언제 필요한가?)Over-capacity?Under-capacity?
9생산용량 결정의 전략적 속성 미래에 발생할 수요를 충족하는 능력에 영향을 준다 생산용량 결정은 생산비용에 영향을 준다. 생산용량은 보통 초기 투자의 주요 구성요소이다.생산용량 결정은 장기적 관점의 의사결정이다.생산용량 결정은 경쟁력에 영향을 미친다.생산용량 결정에 따라 관리의 용이성이 달라질수 있다.글로벌화로 인해 생산용량 결정이 더 중요해지고 복잡해 졌다.생산용량결정은 충분한 시간을 두고 결정해야할 중요한 의사결정이다.Capacity Decisions are Strategic!!!
10생산용량의 정의 Design capacity (설계용량) Effective capacity (유효생산용량) 설계시 결정된 최대 산출물이나 서비스 용량Maximum output rate or service capacity an operation, process, or facility is designed forEffective capacity (유효생산용량)설계용량에서 인적요인 또는 기타 이유로 인한 공제량을 뺀 용량Design capacity minus allowances such as personal time, maintenance, and scrapActual output (실제산출률)실제 산출률 – 유효생산용량을 초과할수 없음Rate of output actually achieved--cannot exceed effective capacity.
11Efficiency(효율) and Utilization(이용률) Actual outputEfficiency =Effective capacityUtilization =Design capacityBoth measures expressed as percentagesExample 1Design capacity = 50 trucks/dayEffective capacity = 40 trucks/dayActual output = 36 units/dayKey to improving capacity ~ |Efficiency – Utilization|
12유효생산용량에 영향을 미치는 요인 Determinants of Effective Capacity Facilities (시설)Design (설계)Location (위치)Layout (배치)Environment (환경)Product/service (제품/서비스)Product or service mix (제품/서비스 믹스)Process (프로세스)Quantity capabilities(양적 능력)Quality capabilities(품질 능력)Human factors (인적 요인)Job content(직무 내용)Job design(직무 설계)Training and experience(훈련과경험)Motivation(동기유발)Compensation(보상)Learning rates(학습 속도)Absenteeism and labor turnover(결근 및 퇴직률)Policy(정책)Operational(운영)Scheduling(스케줄링)Materials management(자재 관리)Quality assurance(품질 보증)Maintenance policies(보전 정책)Equipment breakdowns(장비 고장)Supply chain(공급사슬)External factors (외적요인)Product standards(제품 표준)Safety regulations(안전 규제)Unions(노조)Pollution control standards(공해 관리 기준)
13생산용량계획의 주요 의사결정 Key Decisions of Capacity Planning 필요생산용량 Amount of capacity needed여유생산용량 (Capacity cushion) = (100% - Utilization)Timing of changesNeed to maintain balanceExtent of flexibility of facilitiesCapacity cushion – extra demand intended to offset uncertainty수요의 불확실성을상쇄시키기 위한 추가적인 생산 용량
14생산용량계획 절차: Steps for Capacity Planning 미래 필요 생산용량 추정 (Estimate future capacity requirements)현재 생산용량 평가 (Evaluate existing capacity)대안 파악 (Identify alternatives)재무 분석 수행 (Conduct financial analysis)정성적 요인 평가 (Assess key qualitative issues)대안 선택 (Select one alternative)실행 (Implement alternative chosen)결과 모니터링 (Monitor results)
15생산용량소요 예측 Forecasting Capacity Requirements Long-term vs. short-term capacity needsLong-term relates to overall level of capacity such as facility size, trends, and cyclesShort-term relates to variations from seasonal, random, and irregular fluctuations in demandFigure5-1Common demand patterns
16생산용량 계산 (Calculating Processing Requirements) 년간 용량이 2000시간/기계 라면, 우리는 5800시간을 확보하기 위해 2.9대의 설비가 필요하다 5,800 (hours)/2,000 (hours/mc) = 2.90 machines
17서비스용량계획: Planning Service Capacity Need to be near customers (용량과 고객이 근접함)Capacity and location are closely tiedInability to store services (서비스 용량은 저장이 안됨)Capacity must be matched with timing ofdemandDegree of volatility(휘발성) of demandPeak demand periods
18생산용량, 자체생산이냐 구매냐? In-House or Outsourcing* 가용생산 용량 Available capacity전문성; Expertise품질; Quality considerations수요의 특성; Nature of demand원가; Cost위험; RiskMake or Buy?Outsource(외주): 외부공급자로 부터 제품과 서비스를 공급받는 것 obtain a good or service from an external provider
19생산용량 대안 개발 (Developing Capacity Alternatives) 시스템을 유연하게 설계하라 Design flexibility into systems수명주기 단계를 감안하라 Take stage of life-cycle into account시스템 사고로 생산용량 변경에 접근하라 Take a “big picture” approach to capacity changes (not to be sub-optimal)생산용량을 덩어리 (Chunk)로 다룰 준비를 하라 Prepare to deal with capacity “chunks”생산용량소요를 평준화 하도록 시도하라 Attempt to smooth out capacity requirements최적 운영수준을 파악하라. Identify the optimal operating level
20병목공정 Bottleneck Operation sub optimizationBottleneck operation: An operation in a sequence of operations whose capacity is lower than that of the other operations일련의 공정들 중에서 생산용량이 가장 작은 공정Figure 5.2Operation 1 20/hr.Operation 2 10/hr.Operation 3 15/hr.10/hr.BottleneckMaximum output rate limited by bottleneck
21규모의 경제 Economies of Scale 규모의 경제: 산출률이 최적수준 이하면, 산출률을 늘리면 단위 당 평균 원가는 내려간다.Diseconomies of scale규모의 비경제: 산출률이 최적수준이상이면 산출률을 늘리면 단위 당 평균 원가는 올라간다
22Economies of Scale Minimum cost & optimal operating rate are functions of size of production unit.Figure 5.5
23대안 평가 Evaluating Alternatives 비용-조업도 분석 (Cost-volume analysis)손익분기점 Break-even point재무분석 (Financial analysis)현금 흐름 (Cash flow)현재 가치 (Present value)의사결정 이론 (Decision theory)대기행렬 분석 (Waiting-line analysis)
24비용-조업도 관계 Cost-Volume Relationships FC = Fixed costVC = Total variable costv = Variable cost per unitTC = Total costTR = Total revenueR = Revenue per unitQ = Quantity or volume of outputQBEP = Break-even quantityP = ProfitTC=FC+VCVC=Q*v
26Example 3Adding a new line of pies, which will require leasing new equipment for a monthly payment of $6,000. Variable costs would be $2.00 per pie, and pies would retail for $7.00 each.How many pies must be sold in order to break even?What would the profit (loss) be if 1,000 pies are made and sold in a month?How many pies must be sold to realize a profit of $4,000?If 2,000 can be sold, and a profit target is $5,000, what price should be charged per pie?SOLUTION
27복수손익분기점 문제: Break-Even Problem with Step Fixed Costs EXAMPLE 4
29Product and service design Decision TheoryDecision Theory represents a general approach to decision making which is suitable for a wide range of operations management decisions, including:CapacityplanningProduct and service designLocationplanningEquipmentselection
30Decision Process Identify the problem Specify objectives and criteria for a solutionDevelop suitable alternativesAnalyze and compare alternativesSelect the best alternativeImplement the solutionMonitor to see that the desired result is achieved
31Decision Environments Certainty - Environment in which relevant parameters have known valuesRisk - Environment in which certain future events have probable outcomesUncertainty - Environment in which it is impossible to assess the likelihood of various future events1. Profit per unit is $5. You have an order for 200 units. How much profit will you make? (This is an example of certainty since unit profits and total demand are known.)2. Profit is $5 per unit. Based on previous experience, there is a 50 percent chance of an order for 100 units and a 50 percent chance of an order for 200 units. What is expected profit? (This is an example of risk since demand outcomes are probabilistic.)3. Profit is $5 per unit. The probabilities of potential demands are unknown. (This is an example of uncertainty.)
32Decision Making under Certainty (확정성하의 의사결정) Payoff tableSolution:Choose the alternative with the highest payoffIf demand is low, take “small facility” alternativeIf demand is moderate, take “Medium facility” alternativeIf demand is high, take “Large facility” alternative
33Decision Making under Uncertainty (불확정성하의 의사결정) Maximin - Choose the alternative with the best of the worst possible payoffsMaximax - Choose the alternative with the best possible payoffLaplace - Choose the alternative with the best average payoff of any of the alternativesMinimax Regret - Choose the alternative that has the least of the worst regrets
34Decision Making under Uncertainty (불확정성하의 의사결정) Maximin(b) Maximax(c) LaplaceFor the Laplace criterion, first find the row totals, and then divide each of those amounts by the number of states of nature (three in this case).(d) Minimax Regret (Opportunity Losses)
35Decision Making Under Risk (위험(불확실성)하의 의사결정) Risk: The probability of occurrence for each state of nature is knownRisk lies between the extremes of uncertainty and certaintyExpected monetary value (EMV) criterion:The best expected value among alternativesDetermine the expected payoff of each alternative, and choose the alternative with the best expected payoffWhen demand probabilities are distributed as followslow = .30, moderate = .50, and high = .20.
36의사결정 나무 (Decision Tree) Decision tree: a Schematic representation of the available alternatives and their possible consequences.
37ExampleA manager must decide on the size of a video arcade to construct. The manager has narrowed the choices to two: large or small. Information has been collected on payoffs, and a decision tree has been constructed. Analyze the decision tree and determine which initial alternative (build small or build large) should be chosen in order to maximize expected monetary value.
38(평균완전정보비용) Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) Expected value of perfect information: the difference between the expected payoff under certainty and the expected payoff under riskExpected value of perfect informationExpected payoff under certaintyExpected payoff under risk-=In the previous example,
39민감도 분석 Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis: Determining the range of probability for which an alternative has the best expected payoffUseful for decision makers to have some indication of how sensitive the choice of an alternative is to changes in one or more of these valuesExample 5s-8