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HOMICIDE PREDICTIONS St. Louis 2013 Group A: Derek Clardy Maria Kattia Del Rio Tomita Seungyoon Kim Tamara Pokol.

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Presentation on theme: "HOMICIDE PREDICTIONS St. Louis 2013 Group A: Derek Clardy Maria Kattia Del Rio Tomita Seungyoon Kim Tamara Pokol."— Presentation transcript:

1 HOMICIDE PREDICTIONS St. Louis 2013 Group A: Derek Clardy Maria Kattia Del Rio Tomita Seungyoon Kim Tamara Pokol

2 Approach Collect Historical Data Number and place of murders Build a Regression Model Factors to be considered Factors available Build a regression model Forecast Murder Number and place of murders

3 St. Louis 14 th Most Dangerous Downtown West was ranked 14 th most dangerous A report based on F.B.I data back in 2010

4 St. Louis Homicide Historical Data

5 St. Louis Homicide by Police District Police Patrol District Number20082009201020112012 South1 109 12 South2 12422 3 1113101613 Central4 12 7116 Central5 1926301718 North6 4427402632 North7 35292115 North8 17 15138 Central9 188727

6 Factors considered CRIME Robbery Forcible Rape Aggravated Assault Drug Enforcement Arrest Data Number of Policeman ECONOMIC Low Income Households (<$10,000) With Food Stamp Benefit Unemployed Civilians Unemployment rate

7 Factors considered DEMOGRAPHIC/ EDUCATION Divorced Race Men (18-65 years) Men (15-44 years) High School Dropout Rate Educational level Other Factors Gun ownership Gangs concentration Drug usage Alcohol sales Crime prevention programs

8 Factors Available & Correlation with Murder CRIME Robbery: 0.85 Forcible Rape: 0.65 Aggravated Assault: 0.78 Drug Enforcement Arrest Data: (- 0.64) Number of Policeman: - 0.54 ECONOMIC Low Household Income Class: 0.79 With Food Stamp Benefit: 0.79 Unemployed Civilians: 0.78 Unemployment rate: (-0.18) DEMOGRAPHIC/ EDUCATION Divorced: 0.37 Race: White: 0.58 African American: 0.59 Men 18-65 years: 0.36 Men 15-44 years: 0.77 High School Dropout Rate: 0.12

9 Factors Selection Correlation doesn`t mean causation! Highly correlated factors Build a reasonable model Factors used to build regression model: Robbery in St. Louis Aggravated Assault Low Income Class Unemployed Civilians Black or African American Men 15-44 years 63 potential models!

10 Best Fit Regression Model Regression line: Number of murders=(-405.90559)-(0.08864*Robbery)+(0.00035*Low Income Class)+(0.00460*Black or African American) Model: P=0.0327=<0.05 R square=0.98 Standard Error of Estimate=4.1

11 2013 Forecast Based on Homicide Statistics 1985-2012 Exponential Smoothing Holt`s MethodMoving Average Forecasting Constant Alfa: 0.92Alfa: 1, Beta:0Span: 3 Forecasting Error* 17.10%16.91%18.79% Forecast 2013113.08111113.5 *Mean Absolute Percentage Error

12 2013 Forecast – Holt`s Method Accuracy: 16.91% mean absolute percentage error 111 murders are forecasted for 2013

13 2013 Forecast Number of Murders by Police District 58% of all murders was committed in district 5, 6, and 7 65 out of 111 murders predicted to be in three districts Police Patrol District Number % of Total Murders 2008-2012 Years Number of Murders Forecasted 2013 South 18%0 22%2 39%10 Central 47%8 516%18 North 625%28 717%19 810%11 Central96%7 100%111

14 Conclusion Our regression model is better than the best forecasting technique Useful model for predictions The model can be extended: Include more data: buy statistics (e.g. divorce by year), FBI historical data Our model can be used to support decision-making in different industries: Health Care Security Investment Opportunities Community Services

15 Questions?

16 References St Louis Police Department: Missouri Census Data Center: bin/acsprofiles/ 965000&subjects=Demographic&subjects=Economic&subjects =Social&subjects=Housing bin/acsprofiles/ 965000&subjects=Demographic&subjects=Economic&subjects =Social&subjects=Housing Crime Reports: %20Avenue+St.%20Louis+MO&agencyzoomlevel= %20Avenue+St.%20Louis+MO&agencyzoomlevel %20Avenue+St.%20Louis+MO&agencyzoomlevel %20Avenue+St.%20Louis+MO&agencyzoomlevel= KMOV News: ranks-14th-as-most-dangerous-neighborhood- 89951832.html ranks-14th-as-most-dangerous-neighborhood- 89951832.html

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