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Artificial neural networks for infectious diarrhea prediction using meteorological factors in Shanghai Yongming Wang, Junzhong Gu and Zili Zhou Department of Computer Science & Technology, East China Normal University Institute of Computer Applications, Shanghai, China E-mail: ymwang819@gmail.comymwang819@gmail.com http://www.ica.stc.sh.cn 6 th International Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering SEKE 2014, Hyatt Regency, Vancouver, Canada

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OUTLINES Introduction Study area and dataset Prediction method and performance metrics Development of FFBPNN model –input and output parameters –Data pre-processing and post-processing –Determination of optimum network and parameters Development of MLR model Experiments results and discussion Sensitivity analyses Conclusions

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Introduction As a kind of common and important infectious disease, infectious diarrhea has a serious threat to human health and leads to one billion disease episodes and 1.8 million deaths each year (WHO, 2008). In Shanghai of China which is the biggest developing country, the incidence of infectious diarrhea has significant seasonality throughout the year and is particularly high in the summer and autumn of recent years. Hence, a robust short-term forecasting model for infectious diarrhea incidence is necessary for decision-making in policy and public health.

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Introduction Infectious diseases have a closely relation with meteorological factors, such as temperature and rainfall, and can affect infectious diseases in a linear or nonlinear fashion. In recent years, there has been a large scientific and public debate on climate change and its direct as well as indirect effects on human health. As far as we are concerned with the prediction of diarrhea diseases in literature, many forecasting models based on statistical methods for diarrhea diseases forecasting have been reported. With regard to the fact that number of meteorological factor that effect infectious diarrhea are too much and the inter-relation among them is also very complicated, prediction models based on statistics methods may not be fully suitable for such type of problems.

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Introduction Nowadays, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are considered to be one of the intelligent tools to understand the complex problems and have been widely used in the medical and health field. To the best knowledge of the authors, there is no works has been carried out to utilize the ANNs method in predicting diarrhea disease. Contribution: Establish a new ANNs model (FFBPNN) to predict infectious diarrhea in Shanghai with a set of meteorological factors as predictors.

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Study area and Dataset- Study area Shanghai is located in the eastern part of China which is the largest developing country in the world, and the city has a mild subtropical climate with four distinct seasons and abundant rainfalls. It is the most populous city in China comprising urban/suburban districts and counties, with a total area of 6,340.5 square kilometers and had a population of more then 25.0 million by the end of 2013.

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Study area and dataset- dataset The infectious diarrhea cases for the period 2005.1.3- 2009.1.4

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Study area and dataset- dataset The meteorological factors data for the period 2005.1.3-2009.1.4

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Method and performance metrics The schematic flowchart of proposed method. Step 1: Data collection Step 2: Data pre-processing Step 3: Data mining

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Method and performance metrics Three layered feed-forward back-propagation artificial neural network model.

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Method and performance metrics The models with the smallest RMSE, MAE and MAPE and the largest R and R 2 are considered to be the best models.

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Development FFBPNN model The FFBPNN modeling consists of two steps: --- Train the network using training dataset --- Model input and output parameters --- Data pre-processing and post-processing --- Determination of optimum network and parameters --- Test the network with testing dataset Hidden neurons and network errors

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Development FFBPNN model ParametersFFBPNN Number of input layer units9 Number of hidden layer1 Number of hidden layer units4 Number of output layer units1 Momentum rate0.9 Learning rate0.74 Error after learning1e-6 Learning cycle1500 epoch Transfer function in hidden layer Tansig Transfer function in output layer Purelin Training functionTRAINGDM The optimum model architecture and parameters for the diarrhea prediction.

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Development MLR model Dependent variable : diarrhea number Independent variables : meteorological factors

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Results and discussion PECs Models FFBPNNMLR TrainingTestingTrainingTesting MAE 20.762827.754729.807735.3774 RMSE 28.300736.052639.373948.9395 MAPE(% ) 27.27%38.41%43.37%41.82% R 0.87830.84900.80890.6968 R2R2 0.92130.91250.88110.8388 The reason of better performances of the FFBPNN model over MLR model may be attributed to the complex nonlinear relationship between infectious diseases and meteorological factors.

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Results and discussion Comparison curves plot of actual vs. predicted trends for training dataset FFBPNN MLR

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Results and discussion Comparison scatter plot of actual vs. predicted values for training dataset FFBPNN MLR

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Results and discussion Comparison curves plot of actual vs. predicted trends for testing dataset FFBPNN MLR

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Results and discussion Comparison scatter plot of actual vs. predicted values for testing dataset FFBPNN MLR

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Sensitivity analyses Sensitivity analysis (Cosine Amplitude Method) ANNs Meteorological factor Infectious diarrhea black-box

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Sensitivity analyses Most effective meteorological factor : temperature least effective meteorological factor : average rainfall

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Conclusions 1. The proposed method is more suitable for prediction infectious diarrhea then statistical methods MLR. 2. The feed-forward back-propagation neural network (FFBPNN) model with architecture 9-4-1 has the best accurate prediction results in prediction of the weekly number of infectious diarrhea. 3. most effective meteorological factor on the infectious diarrhea is weekly average temperature, whereas weekly average rainfall is the least effective parameter on the infectious diarrhea. Therefore, this technique can be used to predict infectious diarrhea. The results can be used as a baseline against which to compare other prediction techniques in the future.

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